Category: TIME CAPSULE

TO BE A TAOISEACH (I)

Ireland’s ninth Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds, died recently after a cruel battle with Alzheimer’s, only days before the twentieth anniversary of the event that will forever define his political career – the 1994 IRA Ceasefire. His death brought to mind the, perhaps apocryphal, remark of his predecessor, Charlie Haughey that, while nobody would go down in history for fixing Ireland’s economy, whoever solved the Northern Ireland problem WOULD be remembered.

Reynolds did not end the violence but he certainly introduced a game – changer. After 31 August 1994 things were never the same. Certainly the pieces had been on the board for some time, but without the dedication, effort – and courage – of Reynolds and a small number of officials, the ceasefire would not have occurred when and how it did. Put bluntly, there are people today who would not be alive but for Albert Reynolds. His otherwise controversial reign as Taoiseach was unremarkable set against this achievement.

Reynolds’ legacy is secure. What of his fellow Taoisigh? He had eight predecessors, and, in the two decades since he resigned, four successors. This in almost a century of uninterrupted parliamentary democracy, something Ireland shares in Europe only with Britain, Sweden, Switzerland and Finland and of which we can justifiably be proud.

The jury is still largely “out” on his four successors, particularly the last two. John Bruton, the shortest serving, Reynolds’ successor, will probably best be remembered as a safe pair of hands who helped further embed the Peace Process. His government also took the first major steps to combat organised crime by sanctioning the seizure of criminals’ assets.

Bertie Ahearn, Ireland’s second longest serving Taoiseach, is still a figure of controversy. What is not in dispute is the sterling work he put in on the Peace Process, a hands on involvement culminating in the current political settlement.

The towering figure of De Valera has to some degree overshadowed his predecessor, W.T. Cosgrave, the first head of government of an independent Ireland ( not, technically a Taoiseach, but included in the pantheon). Cosgrave’s achievements were considerable. He shepherded the state through its first years, including a bitter civil war, in which his government executed, controversially, without trial, seventy seven republicans arrested under emergency legislation.

His government went on to establish the institutions of the new state, including, crucially, a universally accepted and respected unarmed police force, in tandem with the downsizing of a large army. Economically he pursued prudent policies while diplomatically he sought to broaden the scope of Irish independence by pushing the limits of the “ dominion status” accorded to Ireland by the peace treaty with Britain. Under Cosgrave Ireland remained a democratic state even as countries elsewhere were sliding into autocracy or dictatorship.

Cosgrave was succeeded in 1932 by De Valera, who was Taoiseach for twenty one of the next twenty eight years and who has been the dominant Irish political figure of the Twentieth Century. For better or worse, love him or loathe him, we live in an Ireland largely shaped, institutionally, by him. We live by his Constitution, some elements of which are well past their sell by date, but which still, overall, commands a high level of legitimacy and acceptance among the electorate.

Whether he would necessarily have approved the changes made in it since 1937 is moot; the important point is that the Constitution contained sufficient provisions for organic change and amendment to have lasted. The Constitution, making Ireland a republic in all but name, was the culmination of De Valera’s policy after 1932 of using the available constitutional and legislative levers to diminish the remaining trappings of British rule.

His other vital, and defining, achievement was to maintain Ireland’s neutrality – and territorial integrity – during World War Two. The fact that Ireland was not directly in a major theatre of war undoubtedly helped, but it could have gone differently in the context of the Battle of the Atlantic. Britain invaded Iceland in 1941 and Churchill cast covetous eyes at, and made noises about, seizing Ireland’s ports, inexplicably ceded by Chamberlain in 1938 ( but then that was the year of Munich!).

De Valera’s adroit political and diplomatic footwork in the first years of the War was crucial. Ireland would be “ neutral with a certain consideration for Britain,” a Dev quote contained in Joe Joyce’s fascinating recent novel “ Echobeat” about Ireland in the winter of 1940, which I commend strongly. And Ireland remained neutral. De Valera’s one rush of blood came with signing the Book of Condolences for Hitler. Yet he bounced back weeks later with a memorable response to a Churchill tirade against Irish neutrality, his radio broadcast of May 1945 unforgettable.

De Valera stopped short of declaring Ireland a republic. That was done in 1948 in Canada by his successor, Fine Gael’s John A Costello. The declaration appears to have been a solo run but once made there was no going back. This was about his only contribution in two terms as Taoiseach. His first government collapsed in 1951 soon after a capitulation to the Catholic Church over proposals to provide limited free medical care to mothers and children, Costello declaring he was an Irishman second and a Catholic first. The 50s were a dreadful decade for Ireland economically and Costello did nothing to help.

Nor did De Valera, who continued to idealise a pastoral rural based economy before being finally kicked upstairs to the ceremonial role of President in 1959. His successor was the pragmatic Sean Lemass, by then almost sixty, who had been an able and pragmatic Minister for decades. Once in power, he set about reorganising and restructuring Ireland’s economy to drag it into the second half of the Twentieth century. He encouraged FDI, cut tariffs and began attempts to join Europe, as well as commencing a dialogue with his Northern counterpart. He is generally regarded as the father of modern Ireland and perhaps the best manager to hold the office of Taoiseach, partly giving the lie to son –in –law Haughey’s remark about fixing Ireland’s economy.

Lemass was succeeded in 1966 by Jack Lynch, a former GAA star and essentially a compromise candidate. Mild mannered Lynch was in power when the North boiled over. His defining moments came in 1969 and 1970 when he saw off a major threat to our democratic institutions by resisting calls to intervene in the North and later firing several Ministers, including Haughey , over a plot to smuggle arms to republicans. For that we should be grateful. Less so for his tactic of buying the 1977 election, generating a culture of expectation and entitlement which dogs us still.
Lynch’s tenure was interrupted from 1973-1977 by Liam Cosgrave, son of W.T., still happily with us at 94. Cosgrave, a devout Catholic, voted against his government’s legislation on contraception, but will also be remembered for a fearless and no nonsense approach to upholding law and order in the face of threats by subversives.

Charlie Haughey and Garret Fitzgerald continue to stoke public interest and debate sufficiently to merit a second column between them. There will be space also for some thoughts on Brian Cowen and the performance to date of Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

15/9

BEYOND THE TIPPING POINT

Operation Stable Door has begun. The last few weeks have seen the Government  attempt to rebrand itself in the wake of dismal local election results in May. The Government hopes for some “bounce” from its attempted makeover as a first step in recovery. Two hard questions arise:  is it realistic and  will it work.

First up was Labour, the major loser in May, which, as expected, elected Joan Burton as its new leader. There followed  a week of negotiations between Taoiseach Enda Kenny and  Burton, now installed as Tanaiste (Deputy Leader) , following which a major Cabinet reshuffle was announced. Out went three of the five Labour old guard while Fine Gael for its part promoted two newcomers as well as effecting a round of musical chairs among  surviving Ministers.

The chief move of interest was the kicking sideways of the accident prone Health Minister James  Reilly, who is succeeded  by one of the party’s Young Turks, Leo Varadkar. What Varadkar will do with the poisoned chalice of Health remains to be seen. He will not have much time but the popular view is that he can scarcely do any worse than his predecessor. The other  feature of the new cabinet is that four of its fifteen members are women, though Fine Gael failed to follow up, and has been criticised,  when appointing ten male only junior ministers several days later.

Simultaneously the Government  launched a ten page “ Statement of Priorities” as a road map for its remaining (maximum) 21 months in office. This in an attempt to redefine priorities, building on the (64 page) Programme for National Recovery published when it took office in 2011. The new document is modest on specific deliverables, concentrating  on  refining and re-targeting many of the elements in the 2011 document.

The main 2014 deliverables announced are promises to begin reducing the tax burden on low and middle income taxpayers ( a process to be spread over several years), some help with water charges for those on lower incomes, a programme of social housing and another tinkering with medical entitlements – this time extending free GP care to those over 70 not already in receipt of it. There is also  a stated commitment “ to the full retention of the Free Travel Scheme” – an inclusion which tells volumes about the Coalition’s apprehensions about next facing the electorate.

For the rest the Priorities Statement is a less than inspiring brochure of aspiration. It consists for the most part of announcements to follow through on previous commitments,  with projected targets in many areas to be achieved later in or at the end of the decade, well after the looming general election. There is renewed emphasis on “rebuilding trust  in politics and public institutions” which seems designed to counter criticism of the slow rate of reform to date in areas such as public appointments, local government funding and transparency and accountability in the public sector.

The Statement is gung ho on the economy and future economic growth, with little reference to the still parlous state of the public finances, mentioning only that “significant challenges remain” to achieve the 2015 budget deficit target of 3%.  There is the first rub. Whatever about the recent upturn in the economy, and however the figures are interpreted, some adjustment – for which read spending cuts or tax increases – will be necessary in October’s budget to hit the 3%. It may be a billion rather than two but even that figure will be hard achieved, given what has been taken in recent years. Factoring in even a modest amount for the promised tax cuts and hand-outs will further complicate the issue. From here the budget seems likely to be an exercise with mirrors, cuts in capital spending, more increases in excise on alcohol, fuel, and cigarettes and a balancing figure based on pious hopes for “ revenue buoyancy.”

There is considerable doubt whether the  new strategy is economically realistic. It has been excoriated by Colm McCarthy, one of the country’s leading economists, with a reputation for plain speaking. As he put it, succinctly, no sooner was the Troika gone than it was back to “ the core business of Irish politics” – buying votes. He described the new measures as “ominous,” and threatening to worsen the state’s finances by using what could be  a temporary rise in tax revenues to finance a permanent reduction in direct taxes. Meanwhile, of course, government  borrowing goes on, adding to the national debt.

Ominous also  is the prospect that  the once-off ( or twice-off, if the Coalition survives that long) “ soft”  budget, with giveaways, coming from the Government which preached and practiced prudent economic management to restore the country’s finances, will open the floodgates to  a general election bidding war, with the main parties striving to outdo each other with unrealistic election promises.  Forget for a moment the 2011 election, fought against the sombre background of the Troika presence, and think back to 2007, before the deluge, when the then opposition parties made ever more extravagant promises in an attempt to dislodge Fianna Fail. Sobering.

Whether the rebranding will work politically is also doubtful. Labour has fallen a long way and will be hard put even to regain its traditional core support of around 10%. Fine Gael also has much ground to make up. And time is short. From 1 August the current Dail will have a maximum of less than 600 days left; it must adjourn no later than 9 March 2016, with an election to follow by 3 April. If the trend for banana skins shown over the past year were to continue apace, the chances of  the government lasting that long cannot be great. The whole health area is a morass, with both the medical card issue, now well and truly thrown open, and the need to exert some form of meaningful control over health spending, carrying potential for further trouble.

One  major trouble  looming  is water. The issue has been badly handled from the outset, and even this late in the day the cost to be levied for what was once free is still not known. The government appears to be pinning its hopes on  the benign scenario of an average annual charge of $350 per household proving palatable. But if the government thinks its problems over what many feel has been the tipping point are in the past, wait till the water bills arrive in voters’ houses from January next.

Hard pounding, Gentlemen!

As a footnote, I’ve just finished reviewing “ Obama Power” about Obama’s 2012 re-election, something that appeared improbable after the 2010 Congressional election results. The authors attribute Obama’s victory  to his success in rebranding himself and in succeeding in stretching the “narrative arc” of his message so that, instead of being judged on his first term his stated goals would be stretched to encompass achievement before the end of his second term. Such a strategy would have appeal to the beleaguered Government here. But then this Government does not  have the witless Tea Party or the gaffe-prone Mitch Romney to help restore its fortunes.

19/07

MUGGED BY REALITY?

Political columnists and commentators have a new sport – guessing the date of the next General Election and which parties will make up the Government after that election.

This after the results of May’s local and European elections when the Coalition achieved the near impossible. The Government with the largest majority in the history of the state, which did nothing to bring about the economic collapse, for the most part performed credibly in repairing the damage, including seeing off the Troika successfully, was punished so severely in the ballot that its chances of recovery before its term runs out are slight. This regardless of any policy initiatives it may take.

The facts make stark reading, particularly for the junior Coalition partner, Labour. A protest vote was expected, but not on this scale. Its vote fell from 14.5% to 7.2% in the local elections, and from 13.9% to 5.3% in the European elections, both a far cry from the heady 19.4% in the 2011 general election. The party lost all three European seats. On this showing most of the party’s deputies seem set to lose their Dail seats.

Fine Gael also got a shock, dropping from 32.5% to 24% in the local elections and from 29.1% to 22.3% in the European vote, significantly below its 36% general election figure. The party is now neck and neck with a partially revived Fianna Fail. Like Labour, party strategists can take little comfort that some of the fall was probably due to protest by way of abstention (the turnout was just over 50% compared to the 70% in the 2011 General Election). Suddenly a second term in government looks far from certain.

The big winners were Sinn Fein, which continued the upward trends of the 2011 elections (General and Presidential) , doubling its vote in the local elections to 15.2% and increasing its share of the European poll from 11.2% to 19.5%, winning three of the eleven seats. This despite the arrest and lengthy questioning of Gerry Adams by Northern Ireland police just before election day. The other beneficiaries were a slew of Independents and minor parties, chiefly on the Left, who garnered 28% of the vote, three well entrenched personalities winning seats in Europe.

Some pundits have seen Sinn Fein’s continued success as marking a significant shift in the Irish political landscape. Certainly it has muscled its way onto the party scene and, with an efficient dedicated party structure at local level, now appears very much a fourth political force. Having creamed off much of Fianna Fail’s “green” vote in 2011, this time around it added the scalp of the 2011 sans culottes surge to Labour. Not being in office is an additional bonus.

How it, and the other parties, will fare in the looming General Election is another matter. Several pundits have pointed to the current volatility of the electorate, present since 2008 and showing no signs of diminishing. That 28% vote for others – chiefly of the left – reflects this, as do successive opinion polls showing high percentages rejecting both the traditional political parties and the arriviste Sinn Fein. Ominously, the figure for “others” – 15.45% in the 2011 election – lurched above 20% in opinion polls in January and has been rising since.

The message from the voters, however unrealistic, is clear: there has been enough austerity, and people have no more to give. An annual property tax in 2013, doubled in 2014, and the prospect of a savage charge for domestic water commencing in 2015, on top of previous impositions, were steps too far. The Troika is now a memory and the Government’s overhyping of the “achievement” of getting rid of it cut no ice. This year also, with the fig leaf excuse of the Troika’s diktat removed, the ineptitude of the government in mishandling a number of small but sensitive issues has been exposed, compounding its woes. The banana skins proliferated.

The post-mortems have begun. While Sinn Fein is preening, Labour is reeling. Its leader Eamon Gilmore, has quit and, as I write, the succession contest is under way. The irony is that, by any standard, apart from the foolish comments made by Gilmore prior to the 2011 election, Labour in government for the most part delivered for its constituency on its major commitments. Core welfare payments were protected almost in entirely, as was the minimum wage, while those on lower incomes were taken out of the Universal Social Charge net.

It was primarily the small hurdles that tripped Labour up, rendering it vulnerable to sustained attack from Sinn Fein and the left . Core welfare payments WERE protected, but the collateral damage from the alternative – a host of small stealth cuts brought in to achieve the necessary budgetary targets, and which affected disproportionately the old, sick and marginalised – proved too much. Arguably a further ten euros off unemployment and ( non means –tested) child benefit or higher excise charges could have avoided all this and proved more palatable politically.

Then, a small hurdle that became big. While the water charges remain an accident waiting to happen – particularly next year when they have to be paid – another accident, though well signposted in advance, has already occurred. The Discretionary Medical Card fiasco hung the Government out to dry – Labour in particular – and offered a perfect example of a government out of touch.

Irish medical cards are issued, not on medical need, but on a means tested basis, under legislation dating from 1970 – the Stone Age in terms of Irish social policy. They provide free medical care, are a gateway to certain other welfare benefits, and are much sought after. Roughly half the population have them – around two million – including those, healthy or not, on the dole or the state pension. The total in January 2013 included around 60,000 people(3% ) with discretionary medical cards, awarded case by case on the basis of individual need, and by definition, all with real medical needs.

As part of the cost cutting measures to tackle Ireland’s enormous health budget of €14 billion, this year’s budget targeted savings of €113 million from medical cards, through reviews of eligibility, including strict means testing of discretionary card holders. Thousands lost them, or were “ under review”, including many highly publicised distressing cases. The media had a field day. It became THE issue on the doorsteps. Government reaction was to parrot that legally its hands were tied. Voters were not impressed, and remain unimpressed in the most recent polls as the Government, in panic, has, post-election, suddenly found a way to reverse policy.

Such is the level of popular disenchantment with the main parties that what happens next is anybody’s guess. The new Labour leader may try to be more assertive, though the scope is limited. A government reshuffle is on the cards. There is speculation of more policy change. But time is running out. The summer beckons. After it, October’s budget. Few would wager on the Government now lasting until 2016. Even Benjamin Franklin’s rationale for hanging together is wearing thin. And then what? Political alliances thought unthinkable are now being contemplated. At least among journalists. For now.

JOHN BULL’S ISLAND

A landmark event in modern Irish history took place last month – President Michael D Higgins’ State Visit to Britain. This, the first by an Irish President in the history of the state, was in return for the Queen’s 2011 visit here. Both have been applauded as great successes and important steps in the process of reconciliation between Ireland and Britain. Particular and deserved praise has been given to the President and his wife; the visit was one which instilled a sense of pride. President Higgins will visit Chicago in early May. Get to see him if you can.

Parking the symbolism and diplomatic niceties, the Visit was particularly important in the formal recognition it accorded to the Irish community in Britain, both in terms of social acceptance within Britain and in terms of official recognition from Ireland . To a community which has often been taken for granted, and on occasion faced hostility or indifference, this formal acknowledgement is important in a country where so many have found a home. President Higgins, like many others a onetime Irish emigrant to Britain, could empathise easily with our people there, who enjoy generally excellent relations with the host nation, which has welcomed and given a livelihood to several million Irish over the centuries.

There are no exact figures for the numbers who came or their descendants. The British Ambassador to Ireland, Dominic Chilcott, suggested recently that as many as twenty five percent of the British population could claim some Irish ancestry A rough rule of thumb used by many has been the number of Catholics plus 10% – reflecting the fact that Britain’s Roman Catholic Church , roughly seven million, was overwhelmingly an Irish immigrant church, and adding in a percentage for those who “lapsed.”

This may be a considerable underestimation . The obvious examples aside, there are people of recognisable Irish descent to be found at every level of British society. While it is widely known that Tony Blair’s mother was born in Donegal, making him , incidentally, an Irish citizen by right, it came as a revelation that Mrs Thatcher’s great-grandmother was a Sullivan from Kerry! And that could be just the tip of a very large iceberg. Though not as visible or as talked about as the Irish Americans, the Irish in Britain have made a significant, sometimes unrecognised, contribution to British society.

While there are roughly 34 million persons claiming Irish descent in the USA , reflecting the phenomenal numbers who arrived during the Nineteenth Century, those of Irish birth living in Britain today – at least half a million – constitute by far the largest grouping of Irish-born now living outside Ireland and greatly exceed the number in the USA. The 2010 US Census gave just under 145,000 Irish-born naturalised US residents; throw in those with or awaiting green cards and the undocumented and the total figure is probably around 250,000.

Irish immigrant experiences in the USA and Britain have been markedly different . While the USA has celebrated diversity, acknowledging the contribution of different immigrant groups, including especially the Irish, to developing the country, Britain has until recently historically taken the different path of assimilation. This has changed in recent decades, with the arrival of large numbers of culturally and ethnically different immigrants which has seen British society become more pluralist, diverse and multicultural.

Until the sixties, however, immigrants to England, even from other parts of Britain, were steered towards assimilation and absorption into the dominant culture. There were reasons. Like immigrants everywhere, most arrivals were poor, entering society at or near the bottom. It was a long slow march up the social ladder in a society more closed and class ridden than in the USA. Assimilation helped.

You were here, you worked, you were accepted, on the host’s terms. And, to a large extent, it
worked, certainly on the surface.

There were many exceptions, of course, and it is to their credit that Irish culture, and Irish identity
were preserved and championed among emigrants. Yet within a generation or two many had become
British, with usually just a nod to an Irish or Scottish grandparent. Hence the Thatchers, and many
more like them ( three of the Beatles). Remember some members of the legendary Irish soccer team
of a generation ago – qualifying through a grandparent.

Historically there have always been many Irish in Britain. Irish-born immigrants constituted until
very recently the largest “foreign” community in Britain; Indians and Poles have now passed them
out. ( The same, incidentally, is true in reverse of the British in Ireland ). There was considerable
migration even pre-Famine and steady, increased, flows thereafter, with spikes in the numbers
arriving corresponding to economic downturns at home . During the 1950s the numbers surged, as
the Irish economy hit the bottom, with up to half of each year’s school leavers emigrating, most to
Britain. As an example, in 1960, of my mother’s siblings three of four were living ( and working) in
Britain, while in my father’s case the figure was seven out of fourteen.

It was a time of mixed experience. Generally Irish immigrants were well received and fitted in. But
increased immigration after 1950 included many single men, generating a flurry of “ No Irish” notices
from landlords. While most thrived, indeed prospered , for the few at the margin life was hard, with
alcohol, loneliness and impoverished lifestyles taking a toll. Remnants of these “forgotten Irish”
remain, and one of the main thrusts of official Irish policy towards emigrants in recent years has been
to provide assistance to them. In the 70s also the impact of the Northern Ireland “Troubles” was
overwhelmingly negative, with widespread anti –Irish feeling after numerous people were murdered
in IRA bombings and shootings. The hysteria spilled over into a number of miscarriages of justice,
with ordinary innocent Irish people wrongly convicted of terrorist crimes. It was not a good time to be
Irish and most immigrants kept their heads down.

Rising prosperity at home from the early 1960s on saw emigration gradually reduce, though thousands
continued to move annually in both directions. A further spike in Irish arrivals in Britain followed
Ireland’s economic collapse of the 80s and the meltdown since 2008 has seen yet another surge.
Unlike the earlier emigrants, many of whom were poorly educated and doomed to menial jobs, the
latest arrivals have been better qualified and have slotted in at every level of British society.

The two decades of peace since 1994 have helped enormously. There has been quicker acceptance
of the Irish against a background of heightened awareness generally about ethnicity and cultural
identity. It has been a period which has seen a steady rise in profile of and regard for the Irish in
Britain. Events like Riverdance, groups like U2 , the arrival in Britain of talented and high profile
Irish artists and entertainers, fashion designers and professionals generally, have combined to generate
a welcome change in attitude. Ireland and Irishness have become trendy, almost chic. The State Visit
topped this off nicely. For the Irish in Britain, the Visit was a signal triumph.

BANANA SKINS?

Year Four of the Government and several recent developments, none catastrophic individually but taken together having the potential to do serious political damage, have begun to cast ripples on the domestic political scene as the Coalition enters its penultimate year.

The general assumption up to now has been that Fine Gael will remain as the largest political party after the next election and will probably form the next government. It’s a measure of how far – and fast – we have travelled since the Troika Era that, at a time when the corner appears to have been turned economically, with the latest indicators all now firmly positive and the government loudly claiming all the credit, the first sprouting of political doubts about this scenario have appeared.

Fine Gael is still the firm favourite and speculation has been and remains whether it will achieve an absolute majority (unlikely), continue in coalition with a much smaller Labour party (most likely), or, in the event of significant reductions in support for both parties, form part of some wider, rainbow-style coalition. With eight fewer seats next time round, and given the likelihood of some pendulum swing, it’s going to be a lot tighter in any event.

The role of independents could become a factor here. With “ Don’t Knows” and undecided polling consistently above 20% since the 2011 election, the actual number of independent deputies was boosted significantly when a group of T.D.s who opposed last year’s abortion legislation were expelled from Fine Gael. Taoiseach Enda Kenny has eschewed the common practice of allowing the dissidents back before the next general election by making clear that the dissidents are out – period. There have been rumours and media speculation that the dissidents might join with others to form a new political party but nothing concrete has emerged – hardly surprising given the fate of most Irish splinter or dissident parties.

Recently the odds on a new party may have shortened slightly. The clear election tactics of both government parties next time round– whether they contest individually or in tandem – will be to claim to have saved the nation economically, combining this with a few careful sweeteners in the next two budgets and promises of more to come. A cautionary note: as several previous governments have learned to their cost, campaigning on a platform of having taken tough resolute action “ in the national interest” can backfire, particularly if the actions taken have hit the electorate hard in their pockets, certainly the case this time round.

The other clear if unstated tactic should be to avoid banana skins. 2014 has already seen this particular aspiration fail several times. Albert Reynolds’ wry observation that the small hurdles trip politicians up may well get another airing. The latest of several banana skins, involving the Rehab charity, is potentially the most harmful to Fine Gael, not just because of the effect on the party’s image, but also because Fine Gael’s most important political strategist, Frank Flannery, the Karl Rove of Irish politics, has become a political casualty.

Flannery, whose Fine Gael roots go back to the 1980s, when, with Garret Fitzgerald, he sought to instil professionalism into the party, is credited with rescuing and reorganising Fine Gael after the debacle in 2002. He was the party’s Director of Elections, a Trustee and a close adviser to Taoiseach Enda Kenny. On March 10 he resigned his posts. He also resigned from the board of Rehab, the organisation of which he had been chief executive for twenty five years until 2006.

The Rehab affair has been simmering away since late last year. The Dail Public Accounts Committee (PAC), tasked with scrutinising how taxpayers money is spent, revealed before Christmas that a number of high profile charities, most notably the largely state – funded Central Remedial Clinic, had been drawing on accumulated reserves to top up significantly the salaries and pensions of their already well paid leading executives. In the case of the CRC the top up more than doubled the Chief Executive’s $150,000 salary. There was public outrage at the thought that charitable donations and taxpayers’ money were involved. Public donations to many charities plummeted and attention focussed on top salary levels throughout the voluntary sector.

Most chief executives published their incomes but the chief executive of the Rehab group demurred, on the grounds that Rehab, though in receipt of considerable state funding, had a significant commercial arm as well and that her salary had been paid from commercially generated income rather than by the taxpayer. Predictably this did not wash with the public, and eventually Rehab disclosed that its chief executive was paid roughly $330,000, more than the Taoiseach ( and Barack Obama!). Rehab further revealed that eleven of her colleagues are paid over $130,000 each.

Exchanges between the PAC and Rehab continue. The only head to roll thus far has been that of Frank Flannery, who built up the Rehab group from relatively small beginnings to a charitable business with annual turnover of $250 million. The details of his successor’s salary, his continued involvement as a director, and revelations of his lobbying activities on Rehabs behalf, proved too much political baggage for Enda Kenny, prompting Flannery’s resignation. The Taoiseach’s ruthlessness has been noted, but the general verdict has been that, politically, Flannery will be very difficult to replace. Astute move or tactical error? Time will tell.

The Flannery affair came hard on the heels of several other banana skins – enmeshed controversies which also simmer on and which could yet bring down Justice Minister Alan Shatter and /or Garda Commissioner Callinan. First up were allegations that the offices of the Garda Ombudsman ( which investigates all complaints about the Gardai) had been bugged with suggestions that the bugging could only have been done by some major or official agency. It was not long before rumours began and accusations were bandied about. Minister and Commissioner were adamant in denying that the Gardai had anything to do with bugging. A retired high court judge is to investigate and report before Easter.

Then came the Garda Whistle-blower controversy and the reigniting of the so-called penalty points for drivers issue ( points are cumulative and can lead to loss of licence). Allegations surfaced last year that the Gardai’s discretionary powers to review and cancel points had, in a small percentage of cases, been abused. The recent recommendations made by the Garda Inspectorate, to eliminate any possible abuse, have been fully accepted by the Government. However, the suspicion that in some cases at least the rules could or might be bent without due cause has left a sour taste with the public and has done nothing for the reputation of the Gardai as a whole.

The penalty point revelations were part of the material made public by two Garda whistle-blowers, one still in the force. Whatever about whistle blowing in the private sector, it is a different matter when the national police force is involved. The controversy rumbles on with Minister and Commissioner eye-balling the two whistle blowers. More sour taste. More heads to roll?

Normal politics is back – with a vengeance.

DREARY STEEPLES?

A visiting Estonian journalist asked me recently to quantify what had changed in Ireland as a result of the Troika Bail Out Programme and whether the programme – and Ireland’s performance – offered an example to the other PIGS in bailout.

Good questions, but who domestically is asking them? Already the Time of the Troika has been banished to the past – rather like a bad dream – though sure to be resurrected again as a stick to beat Fianna Fail with as the next election approaches. With most of the economic indicators suggesting the worst is over and recovery has begun, sentiments of doom and gloom are definitely out. And, as with a bad dream or unpleasant experience , the dominant sentiment is “out of sight, out of mind.”

Any analysis and stock-taking has been as a footnote to “ normal” politics. There’s been much to occupy the media and the politicians. The first of the bankers have gone on what promises to be a lengthy trial. There has been sustained public outrage at recent revelations that a number of Ireland’s leading charities, all in receipt of taxpayers’ money, have been using funds to top up the pay of already well paid senior executives. The “Voluntary Sector” has taken a hammering in consequence, with charitable receipts from the normally generous public showing significant falls. Then there’s the weather, with Ireland battered by a succession of storms in January and February.

Politically, with a general election less than two years away, and European elections imminent, electioneering has already begun. No talk of hair shirt now. The cautious trial balloon floated by Finance Minister Noonan in December regarding possible tax cuts in the next budget has been seized and run with. The Taoiseach has declared that the threshold at which taxpayers hit punitive rates is too low. There is now talk of half a billion euro available as the cost of water shifts from the state to the consumer next year. Elections have been won with far less.

So how much HAS changed? Park for the moment the freshly unemployed and those in mortgage arrears, where change has happened and definitely for the worse. The short answer is – Not Much. Remember Churchill’s comment after the First World War, that “ as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.”

In politics the Ship of State is unaltered. Indeed two attempts to effect significant change in the Constitution – by abolishing the Senate and by giving real investigative powers to Dail Committees – were rejected in referendums. The much vaunted project to amend and update the Constitution has been restricted to shadow boxing with “ issues” such as blasphemy, reducing the length of term of the (non-executive) President and reducing the voting age to 17.

Politically the Captain and indeed the deck officers have been replaced. Fine Gael have replaced Fianna Fail as the largest party and have hung on to that position despite austerity, the cuts and increased taxes. The probability is that this situation will last at least through the next election, making the case for Fine Gael becoming the new “natural party of government.” This has come about largely through luck. Whatever party was in power when the tsunami struck was destined to get the boot , its successor handed a gold wrapped gift : all the blame for the nasty, necessary, remedial regime could be dumped on those who governed before ( or the Troika – and look who brought them in!).

In the broad economy, it will be a long time, if ever, before the construction industry regains its Celtic Tiger heights. The crash legacy is roughly 200,000 unemployed, half the country’s total, requiring retraining, redeployment and new employment possibilities. A formidable task. Factor in the collateral damage – to those relying on the building industry, and the massive hole in consumer spending when ten per cent of the workforce disappears – and a lasting footprint has been left in this area.

The rest of the economy has survived largely intact. It has had, metaphorically, a cold shower, with a world recession to deal with on top of the domestic meltdown. But apart from some high profile collapses, the private sector has emerged, slimmed down, certainly, but more productive, more competitive than for some years past. Much fat has gone, but in the big bad world this was probably necessary.

In the public sector there have been economies, wage cuts and moderately successful attempts to prune the numbers. These, however, have been largely confined to the core civil service, the Gardai and teachers, where the Department of Finance can assert direct control. Elsewhere entrenched bureaucracies and powerful public sector unions have successfully protected their interests.

In the HSE, the country’s single biggest employer, top heavy with administrators and seriously deficient in the numbers of specialist consultants, the total employed shows no signs of diminishing despite official posturing about cutting the enormous health budget. Separately the electricity unions have faced down the Government and the ESB over pension reform, setting the bar for other public sector unions.

Promised reforms aimed at reducing the number of quangos and overhauling the system of (political) public appointments to state boards have proceeded at a snail’s pace. The number of state bodies has seen some closures and amalgamations, but to minimal effect, certainly nothing like the root and branch reform promised. And lucrative appointments to the boards of public bodies have gone on pretty much as before with numerous appointees serving on several boards.

On the plus side, the public finances have been restored. Not into balance, of course, but at least stable and steering the deficit towards the magical 3% Eurozone borrowing target. This has been achieved through new and increased taxation and some cuts in welfare spending. The new taxes and hikes do not “broaden” the tax base – a misnomer – but rather increase the burden on the middle classes. The cumulative squeeze on disposable income continues to be reflected in sluggish sales tax returns, hence the noises about tax cuts to woo or appease the “coping classes.”

The generous welfare system has also survived largely intact. The politically sensitive big trio of benefits were treated with kid gloves. Child Benefit was cut and trimmed but not means tested and remains, at $175 per child per month, a very generous tax free payment. Ditto with Jobseeker’s Benefit, cut by ten percent, but still nearly $250 per week. The sacred cow of the Old Age Pension, roughly $300 per week for a single person (almost double for a couple), was not touched.

There have been other welfare cuts and adjustments, of course. Here, in earnest, the devil is in the detail. A cascade of small cuts and adjustments over the last two Troika budgets has affected a wide range of existing benefits and has hit disproportionately the old, the sick and the handicapped. For many of those, certainly, things also have changed – and not for the better.

The journalist had one final question. Could the fiasco of 2008 happen again? Well, could it?

Lessons for the PIGs? Next time, maybe.
..

BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS.

2014 marks the twentieth anniversary of the Northern Ireland Ceasefires. It’s a measure of how far we’ve come that the failure at the end of 2013 of special envoy Richard Haass to secure agreement among the North’s political parties on some outstanding issues has generated little reaction. Despite evidence of a growing sense of anger frustration and alienation among some younger working class loyalists, there is certainly no threat of a resumption of the grim cycle of violence that scarred the North for a generation before 1994.

But first things first. On 22 November last Fr Alec Reid died. A Redemptorist priest, Fr Reid will forever be remembered in one of the iconic photographs of the “Troubles,” as he administered the last rites to two British army corporals, murdered by the Provisionals in 1988 after blundering into a republican funeral. It was a grim time, only months after the Remembrance Day bombing in Enniskillen, with the two communities seemingly totally polarised and no apparent prospect of political initiative to end the violence.

However, only a short time later Fr Reid was the major facilitator in setting up what became known as the Hume-Adams dialogue, meetings between Gerry Adams and John Hume, which played a vital part in launching the Northern Ireland Peace Process. Over the years he remained actively involved in the peace process, facilitating dialogue and contacts. It was Fr Reid who, together with Methodist Minister the Rev. Harold Good, announced in September 2005 that the IRA had decommissioned its weapons. He also became involved in attempts to resolve the conflict in the Basque country. His singular contribution to the achievement of peace in the North cannot be overstated.

Serendipity. The release of the British and Irish state papers from thirty years ago at the end of 2013 provides a certain analogy with Fr Reid and “the darkest hour.” The documents just released, which merit detailed and careful analysis, cover the years in the wake of the Falklands’ War, and portray fairly frosty relations between the Irish and British governments.

From the papers, the prospects for political progress seemed bleak. Taoiseach Garret Fitzgerald’s attempts to find a political way forward with the initiative of the New Ireland Forum met with the firm rebuff of Thatcher’s famous “ Out, Out, Out” press conference in November 1984. Speaking less than six weeks after the IRA attempt to assassinate her in the Brighton Bombing, she dismissed the three suggestions of the Forum: a unitary state, a federal/confederal state or joint British/Irish authority. The British seemed also to have considered at the time repartition of Northern Ireland, though how seriously this was taken other than as a doomsday option for dealing with Nationalist alienation is a matter for conjecture.

Yet within a year, on 15 November 1985, the Hillsborough Agreement was signed. Clearly, thinking people – a small number of officials on both sides and a totally committed Garret Fitzgerald – set to work to pick up the pieces and seek to find a way forward. The Agreement was historic in that it aligned for the first time British government policy with the majority rather than the minority on the island of Ireland, inter alia by establishing a consultative role for the Dublin government in certain aspects of the governance of Northern Ireland.

There were unintended as well as intended consequences, with violence continuing for nearly a decade, but the Agreement was a catalyst and laid the basis for breaking eventually the political stalemate. The strands began coming together in the early nineties with some attempts at talks featuring the two governments and the main political parties in Northern Ireland but excluding Sinn Fein. This exclusion, and the continuing background of political violence, doomed the negotiations at first but, in the words of one seasoned transatlantic observer, the pieces for a settlement were on the table.

The logjam was finally broken with the historic Downing Street Declaration of 15 December 1993. In the Declaration the British government declared inter alia it had no selfish strategic or economic interest in Northern Ireland and that it was for the people of Ireland alone to determine their future. This proved sufficient to nudge the IRA and then the loyalist paramilitaries into declaring ceasefires in the autumn of 1994.

Much of the credit for the Declaration must belong to the then Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds, who worked tirelessly, with the aid of, again, a small team of officials, to achieve a path to peace from the moment he became Taoiseach. It was certainly, as Newton observed, a case of standing on giants’ shoulders, in terms of the foundations already laid by Garret Fitzgerald, John Hume and Alec Reid among others, but Reynolds’ unique approach was to seek peace first and sort out the constitutional modalities later.

There can be no doubt that this approach, which is also Reynolds’ political legacy, worked. It is, therefore, particularly sad to record that Albert Reynolds, now stricken by the final stages of Alzheimer’s, was too ill to attend the Declaration’s twentieth anniversary celebrations in Dublin last December. Mrs Reynolds attended on his behalf, together with the former British Prime Minister of the time John Major.

Political developments within Northern Ireland since 1994 have resembled a roller coaster ride with advances, setbacks, swoops and ascents. But the peace has held, Sinn Fein is now in government with the DUP and, gradually, differences have been ironed out, starting with the easiest. But a significant rump remains and it should be kept in mind that political consensus exists only to the extent that all sides feel it is better to be inside the tent than out in the cold and that “jaw jaw is better than war war.” There are still two tribes in Northern Ireland with different concepts of national identity.

Hence the Haass involvement, this time also without any direct input from the two governments. Two of the issues that divide – parades and flags – are of totemic significance to many on the loyalist side who regard them as zero sum ones where any concession would signify defeat. 2013 saw some serious and nasty rioting over both issues, particularly over the flying of the Union flag over Belfast City Hall. The flag is now a badge of identity, just as the schools attended and the games played were and still are. There is much talking and teasing out on these issues still to be done. A change in mind-set is perhaps too much to hope for.

The third issue – coming to terms with the past – is even more tricky and has an ominous external dimension. A lot of blood was shed, a lot of innocents murdered on both sides, a lot of hurt is still to be got over. Recent revelations confirming not only collusion between the security forces and loyalist paramilitaries but even involvement by some of those forces in numerous killings over a generation have complicated matters further. This is one that will run. The glib call for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission as in post-Apartheid South Africa is simply not applicable. In South Africa one side was victorious, one side lost. In Northern Ireland there have been no losers.

January 12 2014

FREE AT LAST! – WELL, ALMOST

With considerable fanfare Ireland has exited the Troika bailout programme after three years. The programme, which provided cheap credit to run the country when no other institution would loan us money, has had a bad press. It became identified with assertions that Ireland had “lost” her economic sovereignty. At best an oversimplification.

Following years of economic and fiscal mismanagement and a banking collapse, a crisis developed in the country’s finances, with a yawning gap between tax revenues and the cost of running the country, including a bloated and expensive public sector and an over generous welfare state. The alternative to savage politically and socially unacceptable cuts to balance the books was the Troika arrangement. Under it – thanks to it – public finances have been stabilised, the tax base has been sensibly extended and our economic and social structures have survived. All this with negligible public discontent and unrest.

Opinion among commentators is divided on whether Ireland’s exit has been a trifle premature and whether we should seek a line of credit “just in case.” The instinct of the government is “No.” The reasoning is that the political plaudits to be claimed for “restoring our sovereignty” – assuming it was ever lost – far outweigh the risk of needing a further bailout. If the need arises, not only can it be blamed on external factors, but does anyone doubt that we would not be accommodated – and with the real economy in far better shape than in 2010? The government is on a winner on this one.

So where does Ireland stand now? The picture is somewhat murky. Very few have been left untouched by the crisis since 2008. Even for those with jobs or still in business disposable income is down substantially. Domestic demand has suffered grievously and serious structural problems remain. The mortgage crisis remains to be tacked in any definitive way and its effects extend far beyond those directly affected. The banks – what remain of them – carry the albatrosses of distressed mortgages and overvalued property portfolios, inhibiting any genuine recovery of the banking system and restricting severely the availability of credit to the domestic economy.

Unemployment remains stubbornly high, with the annual natural increase from school leavers and immigrants a constant to be factored in. Reducing the minimum wage to a more realistic level , which would facilitate hiring additional workers, appears a lost cause with Labour in government. Certainly wage costs have come down considerably, improving the country’s competitiveness, but little action has been taken to reduce upward only rents. The retail sector remains in distress with long established businesses continuing to go to the wall. Shortage of credit from the banks is now chronic. And, when recovery comes, the debt legacy will remain for years to come.

But suddenly there are Green Shoots everywhere – in the media and among politicians at least. And optimism is catching. A good summer; a mild autumn. The public mood is definitely more positive amid hopes that the worst of the recession may have passed. Several economic indicators are showing improvement. Not only is unemployment down, something that could of itself perhaps be explained by emigration, but employment is up, very definitely, with new, permanent, job announcements weekly. There is a mini boom in house property prices around Dublin and hopes that it will spread. Small, and new, businesses are opening.

Whether this is a temporary blip or whether recovery is actually on the way remains to be seen. Partly it may be the seasonal factor with pubs and restaurants in the cities full again. However, for most people things have stabilised and even the prospect of increased property taxes and water charges to come are being contemplated with equanimity . There is a growing feeling that, to quote Churchill, while this may not be the beginning of the end, it is certainly the end of the beginning.

Not surprisingly politicians on the government side are talking things up for all they’re worth. There is cautious optimism that, politically as well as economically, the corner may have been turned. The latest opinion polls show Fine Gael continuing to perform relatively strongly, while for Labour, post –budget, the slide seems to have been halted.

The fig-leaf Labour has clung to, that it helped keep the economy from collapsing while simultaneously maintaining core welfare payments, suddenly seems to be acquiring substance. While Labour has a long way to go to regain the ground lost, its leadership received an added unexpected bonus in early December when one of its most trenchant internal critics left to join Fianna Fail.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny appears to have that quality Napoleon regarded as essential in generals – luck. He was in opposition when the economy collapsed. He – and the government – were presented with the Troika as a convenient fait accompli. Moreover, and often overlooked, much of the heavy lifting to get the finances straight was actually set in train by Fianna Fail, with the present government now beginning to reap the benefits of the knock – on effect of emergency measures taken in 2009 and 2010 – before the Troika arrived.

Then strict adherence to the Troika’s terms, the harshness of which could conveniently be lumped at the previous government’s door, began to pay off. The result was some wiggle room come last October’s budget, which proved less severe than feared, with the relatively harsh cuts of $3 billion passed off as some sort of easing of austerity. Fianna Fail were – and are – hamstrung since the Troika deal was theirs, while the Left, including Sinn Fein, has, despite everything, been unable to make serious inroads. The population as a whole, while increasingly leery of politicians, has shown stoical acceptance of what needed to be done to get the economy straight.

There is still some way to go. 2014 will provide some answers. On paper another harsh budget is required to bring borrowing down to the 3% mark. But politicians are politicians. There remains the danger that, with European elections scheduled for next summer, the politicians will cut and run by offering, or promising, sweeteners for the electorate. As I write the prospect of tax cuts is already being floated by some government ministers , though the Taoiseach has emphasised that there can be no return to the profligacy of the past . This is something to be watched. Short of an amendment to the 2014 Finance Act – unlikely – any changes in taxes will not take place until 2015 but the very fact that the notion is being peddled now is worrying.

For 2014 potential banana skins remain, none more so than in the black hole of Health. The 2014 budget target of cuts of $3 billion was achieved by introducing a balancing figure for cuts in health spending amounting to €666 million ($1 billion). Some commentators have suggested that, factoring in elements left out – including the overrun for 2013 – the “true” figure for cuts in 2014 could be close to €1 billion. If implemented this would mean a double digit cut in the health budget – both unsustainable and unacceptable, and probably also unachievable given the HSE’s track record to date. Any cuts at all in health are politically sensitive. Watch this space.

December 16 2013

FIFTY YEARS ON

To anyone of a certain age Dallas means one thing only. Where were you when you heard? What did it mean to you? Fifty years on, even though the later revelations have tarnished the reputation somewhat, the sense of loss remains.

JFK was philosophical, remarking that all it took was one man with a rifle on a rooftop. Staggeringly, in 1963 the Secret Service did not check the upper floors of buildings unless they had received a specific threat.

And who has led the Free World since? Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush One, Clinton, Bush Two and Obama. No Camelots there for sure. Though the acid test must be how they would have handled the Cuba Crisis. Reflect for a moment on that, and ponder whether, without JFK’s surefooted course of action, there would have been a world for them to lead.

I’ve reviewed three books on JFK in the six months, one on the promise unfulfilled after the Cuba Crisis, one on his last Hundred Days, and the most recent, Philip Shenon’s fine book on the Warren Commission – “ A Cruel and Shocking Act.” My review follows:

There is no doubt that Lee Harvey Oswald shot President Kennedy in Dallas on 22 November 1963. The doubts since are whether Oswald acted alone or was front man for a conspiracy, whether there was another gunman, and whether the Warren Commission, set up by President Johnson to investigate the assassination, discovered the whole truth of what happened. Additionally, could the assassination have been prevented?

In 2008 Philip Shenon, a veteran investigative journalist, published an expose critical of the report of the Commission set up to investigate Nine Eleven. Soon after he was approached by a former staff investigator on the Warren Commission, now an eminent lawyer, who urged Shenon to tell the story of the Warren Commission investigation “ to explain what really happened.” Five years of dogged and painstaking research followed.

What was to have been an inside history of the Warren Commission evolved into an account of how much had not been told about the assassination and how much of the evidence failed to reach the Commission, some covered up, some destroyed. What emerges overall is a picture of various agencies and individuals acting in their own self-interest, shifting blame and suppressing information. The Warren Commission was flawed from the beginning, hurried, understaffed, under resourced, politically manipulated, deceived and misled by the CIA and the FBI, both of which conducted extensive cover-ups.

The approach taken by Commission Chairman Chief Justice Earl Warren compounded matters. Warren, convinced from the outset that Oswald had acted alone, was keen to wrap up the report as quickly as possible, certainly before the 1964 Presidential campaign started, and aimed to minimise any further distress to the Kennedy family. He originally envisaged the Commission holding few hearings, having no power to compel witnesses to testify, conducting no independent investigations and doing no more than reviewing the evidence already gathered by the FBI, the CIA and other agencies.

The other Commission members baulked at this and the mandate was broadened, but the auspices were not good. The junior staffers, who did the work, including some brilliant lawyers, dubbed Warren as “Grumpy” or “Dopey” among the “Seven Dwarfs” of the Commissioners (Marina Oswald was Snow White!). Warren took shortcuts which left the field open for later conspiracy theories. To achieve consensus he insisted on language in the report which left open the possibility, contradicting the physical evidence, that a separate additional bullet had wounded Governor Connolly. When the Commission was wrapped up he even favoured destroying its internal files.

From the outset there were rumours of a cover up. The naval surgeon who presided at JFK’s autopsy destroyed his original notes – stained with the President’s blood – lest they became grisly souvenirs. He had already bowed to pressure from the Kennedys to suppress evidence that JFK suffered from Addison’s Disease. Later, Warren refused to allow anyone else view the autopsy photos and X-rays, provoking a near rebellion among the Commission staff.

The FBI, with J. Edgar Hoover bent on damage limitation, suppressed or destroyed vital evidence, while leaking material in attempts to steer the investigation. The night Oswald was shot, the FBI Dallas office, which had been monitoring him for months, destroyed a threatening note which Oswald had hand delivered several weeks earlier. They also failed to place Oswald’s name on the Internal Security Index provided to the Secret Service prior to the President’s visit. Hoover, while publicly denying FBI failures, sometimes under oath, secretly authorised disciplinary action against several dozen agents for dereliction of duty.

The CIA tried to bury the full story of Oswald’s five day visit to Mexico City from 27 September – of critical importance to investigating any possible conspiracy or Cuban connection to the assassination. While there he visited both the Cuban and Soviet Embassies, ostensibly to apply for visas. Attempts to investigate claims that Oswald was seen receiving $6500 from a Cuban agent during his visit were frustrated or glossed over by the CIA, as was another story that Oswald had a brief affair with an embassy employee who introduced him to Cuban agents.

Kennedy after all was dead. The CIA seems to have been at pains to keep secret the widespread and comprehensive surveillance operations it was conducting on the Soviet and Cuban embassies and staff in Mexico City. The damage limitation, orchestrated by the CIA’s eminence grise, James Jesus Angleton, worked. The Commission was heavily dependent on the CIA for information and its final report was far less critical of the CIA than the other agencies involved.

Bizarrely, the FBI learned later from Fidel Castro, indirectly through a double agent that, while in the Cuban Embassy, Oswald made threats to several agents to kill Kennedy . A top secret memo from Hoover to the Commission on the incident ,written in June 1964, never arrive, though decades later a copy was found at the CIA. Another cover – up?

More bizarrely, Castro, clearly anxious to distance Cuba from Oswald, met secretly with a representative of the Warren Commission , denying strenuously any Cuban involvement in the assassination, remarking that he actually admired JFK!

What motivated Oswald? The Commission sat on some of its own records regarding suspicions about Oswald’s sexuality. Later, Commission member Gerry Ford thought him emotionally immature and desperately craving for attention. He suggested a possible sexual explanation, with Marina’s mocking of his impotence eventually pushing him over the edge.

Fifty years on, there are still no definitive answers. The “what ifs” remain. What if the driver of the Presidential car had accelerated immediately after the first bullet hit, which was not fatal, making JFK less of an easy target? Crucially, what if Oswald had been picked up, as he should have been, prior to the visit? For the sad postscript is the conclusion of Hoover’s successor, Clarence Kelley, that if the FBI office in Dallas had been aware of what was known elsewhere in the FBI and CIA about Oswald, “ without doubt JFK would not have died in Dallas” and “history would have taken a different turn.”

November 11 2013