Author: paleoutlaw

likes reading, music, football (all sorts) and chess. interested in politics, world affairs and history.

GETTING THE TOOTHPASTE BACK IN THE TUBE IAN 0906 IV

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

GETTING THE TOOTHPASTE BACK IN THE TUBE
Last month the Government received a mauling in the European Parliament elections and in the national local elections. The main opposition party, Fine Gael, passed out Fianna Fail for the first time, not just in the opinion polls but in terms of actual election results. A variety of left wing candidates were also successful. It was too bad for the victors that the election results meant next to nothing in terms of national political power.
It is hardly surprising that an electorate still seeking scapegoats took it out on the government. From never having it so good, the pendulum has now swung the other way, with a vengeance. However, and particularly regarding the surge in support for left wing candidates, it is difficult to avoid concluding that a sense of denial about economic reality continues to pervade much of Irish public opinion. It is all very well to castigate the government for economic mismanagement in years past. But that will not get the country out of the current economic hole. There is no magic bullet. There is an abiding reality to be faced and that is that very unpalatable measures cannot be avoided. Moreover, those who shout loudest about no cuts in government expenditure, particularly in the welfare area, have short memories. It remains to be seen whether the election results were more than a mid term protest.
Save in one respect Ireland is not unique. Other European countries also have their current economic travails, particularly some of the newer member states and that was reflected in the results for the European Parliament elsewhere. Generally, and predictably, the bigger the national economic difficulties the worse the result for the government concerned. In Britain, Ireland’s most important trading partner, the Labour government was punished savagely. Britain, remember, has banks and bankers every much as venal as those in Ireland and has committed to borrowing even more prodigiously than Ireland. It has also joined the USA in adopting a policy of printing money, the end result of which is uncertain.

I have just returned from Spain, which presents an interesting economic case-study with some striking similarities with Ireland. Both countries have seen a lengthy building-based economic boom end with precipitate speed, accompanied by a sharp rise in unemployment (Spain’s, at 19%, is far higher than Ireland’s). Both have woes with developers, and are suffering the worst economic contraction in 50 years. In Spain’s case also, the huge tourist industry (60 million visitors annually) has been suffering the double whammy of the European-wide recession and the appreciation in the value of the Euro. The (socialist) Spanish government predictably also took a beating in the European elections.
Where Spain and Britain differ from Ireland is that their tax revenues have not collapsed. They have been reduced, true, as the recession has made itself felt, but they have not gone into meltdown. There is money in the pot, or credit to be used, to help stimulate economic activity. In Spain 280,000 extra jobs have been created by an $11 billion government stimulus package for public spending by town and city halls this year. Britain had enough in the tank to attempt to lower taxes as an economic stimulus in its last budget.
Contrast Spain with Ireland. Irish government revenues have collapsed. The government is currently borrowing roughly $100 million per day just to keep going. A series of emergency budgets, incorporating levies (i.e. extra taxes) have been introduced in an attempt to stabilise government finances. These now appear to be having an effect, though the jury is still out. Economic activity seems to be picking up, but at a jarringly lower level. Jobs continue to disappear, with all that that entails in terms of individual hardship and family misery. Crucially, the building sector remains at a standstill Crucially also banking activity, where not stalled, is functioning only at a low level. Credit for small businesses remains at a premium or simply not available. And the government has already signaled harsh budgets to come for at least the next two years, with higher taxes, new taxes and severe cuts in spending in order to carry on the task of getting the public finances under control.
The Celtic Tiger years were good years. There was unparalleled prosperity in the community as a whole. More jobs meant more tax revenues. The government had large tax surpluses, and used them! Existing government debt was greatly reduced. An ambitious programme of infrastructural development, particularly on roads, was started. Spending on health and education and to combat social exclusion increased dramatically. There were significant real increases in payments to the elderly, the unemployed, single parents. Children’s allowances were hiked to unheard of levels; a family with four children receives $1000 per month from the state. Our social welfare payments climbed to become among the best in Europe. The Irish minimum wage is the second highest in Europe. An old or unemployed Irish person receives payments more than double those in Britain.
Prompted by Europe, numerous new government regulatory agencies were established. An ambitious expansion in existing programmes was instituted, increasing the numbers on the public payroll considerably. More nurses, more teachers, more police. These and other popular measures required extra staff, which costs!  Annual expenditure on Development Cooperation increased from around $500 million to $I billion over a five year period and was targeted to go higher, making Ireland the world’s sixth most generous donor to the world’s poor. A Pension Fund was established, to provide for the coming rainy day when current revenues could not cope (up to now the percentage of elderly in Ireland has been uniquely low as a consequence of emigration). And, to encourage saving, the government spent some billions topping up a national regular savings scheme by 25%.
All this spending was done to cheering and applause from a public which revelled in the new found prosperity. Woe betide the few who counselled caution. Equally popular was the fateful, and fatal, accompanying policy of slashing direct taxes, which saw the basic rate cut from 30 to 20% in a decade, and increased exemptions from tax, which saw 38% of those working paying no tax at all. The cuts were made possible by buoyant tax revenues from the almost million new jobs created and the surging receipts from stamp duty and capital gains – the taxes on property sales. Without the tax cuts, the property collapse and the recession might have been manageable. As the property taxes melted away, the reduced tax base was cruelly exposed, which is where we are now.
Remedying matters will be like trying to put toothpaste back in the tube. Restoring taxes to the levels of 2000 will be deeply unpopular. But it will not be sufficient. Expenditure also will have to be cut, and cut dramatically, and that will mean real pain. For starters the government has signalled cancellation of the Christmas bonus welfare payment. It is meanwhile channeling billions from the Pension Fund to prop up a deeply unpopular bank. Either issue could be its Waterloo. Should it fall, the future looks bleak. There will be no more denial should the IMF arrive.

END

6/13/09

ARE YOU IRISH? IAN 0905 III

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

ARE YOU IRISH?

 Are you Irish? Of course you are! You would hardly be reading this magazine if you were not. But just how Irish are you and what does being “Irish” mean to you?  Were you born in Ireland?  Were your parents born in Ireland? Were any of your grandparents? Are you an F.B.I. (Like John McEnroe) ?   Are you married to or adopted by  somebody Irish ?  Perhaps your Irish links go back further to ancestors who left Ireland in the wake of the Great Famine and who worked hard and prospered in the USA of the 19thCentury ?  You might also be descended from the Scots-Irish of an earlier period?

Ireland’s recent prosperity and opening up has broadened the concept of being Irish. We have increasing numbers of immigrants, not of Irish origin, but living in  Ireland, paying  Irish taxes and becoming naturalised citizens; their children will be Irish. So also will children born in Ireland to parents who arrived fleeing political or religious persecution or just seeking a better life. These categories are ones that Irish Americans will be familiar with but they are novel for Ireland. In any event, if you are one of these you are also part of the worldwide Irish family.

For there are many  types of “Irish” out there. Should we be surprised? We have around 6 million living on the island and somewhat over one million of Irish birth living elsewhere, chiefly in Britain and the USA. Around this core there are the Irish Abroad. There are no accurate figures on the numbers who left Ireland over the last two centuries alone but their descendents run into tens of millions. US immigration figures show that over four and a quarter million Irish arrived in the century to 1920 (80%, incidentally before Ellis Island was even opened) By 2006 the US Census reported that the numbers claiming Irish descent were over 30 million, and Irish-Americans were the US’ second largest ethnic group.

Elsewhere, during the last century, at least one and a half million Irish emigrated to Britain, where census estimates are that roughly 10% of the population are of Irish origin or descent (I have more first cousins in England than in Ireland). Indeed the Irish are still the largest foreign community in Britain!  Australia, Canada, South Africa and Argentina all have large communities of Irish descent. With the possible exception of North  Korea the Irish are to be found everywhere. In Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, in the farthest reaches of Central Asia, the first voice I heard in the hotel elevator after my arrival some years ago belonged to an Irishman from Navan, living and working there.

History is festooned with links between Ireland and her exiles and the role of the Irish overseas in developments in Ireland has been at times vital.  Cromwell roundly cursed the Irish overseas for their role in his major military setback in Ireland, Clonmel, in 1650.Some of the patriots deported to Australia after 1848 travelled later to Canada and the USA and obviously many families ended up in more than one location (indeed there is a story – presumably apocryphal – that Buffalo Bill was related to the legendary Australian outlaw, Ned Kelly, as a result of two sisters emigrating to different continents).

Nineteenth Century Irish nationalism was fertilised and nourished by emigrants. Could an independent Ireland have emerged without the support of  the Irish in America ?  In recent years also the role of Irish in America in support of the peace process in Northern Ireland was very considerable. Over generations Irish communities overseas have offered hospitality and a helping hand to successive generations of Irish obliged to emigrate. Money sent home from emigrants kept the country going in hard times. Investment by and through  the Irish overseas helped employment in Ireland.

The worldwide Irish family numbers at least 50 million  (some would say 80 million). The family analogy is a  good one and merits teasing out. Why not do so? Take five or ten to  reflect on where you stand on being Irish. Clearly you relate to Ireland – the Motherland – but is it confined to a feeling of bonhomie around St. Patrick’s Day? The chances are it’s something more than just pleasant sentiment (everybody empathises with St. Paddy’s Day) but actually defining what may be difficult. Now may be a good time to begin.  Probably the intensity of your sentiments depends on  the closeness of your links. Those born in Ireland, or the next generation, are more likely to feel strong affinity than somebody whose ancestors left Ireland in the 1850s. Have you traced your ancestors? Or are you close enough to the Motherland to count as an Irish citizen?

There are practical advantages to being an Irish citizen (automatically if you or a parent were born in Ireland; possible otherwise, through a grandparent, marriage or residence). There is no restriction on dual citizenship. An Irish passport can be more acceptable – and safer – in certain situations and countries. It also allows the holder to stay and work in any country of the European Union. Citizenship, which does not carry Irish tax obligations (these are governed by residence rather than nationality)  could have tax advantages, in the hands of a smart accountant. Be careful, however; to make it worthwhile the exercise might involve compromising your existing citizenship or some of the rights it carries; so hire a lawyer first.  Finally, there is no half-way house; every Irish citizen has the same rights.

The downside of this is that most of the Irish family, particularly Irish Americans, cannot qualify, since their Irish roots go back too far. There’s no half-way house here also; there’s nothing if you don’t satisfy the rules, and Ireland has no system of official recognition for services rendered. This is fine and egalitarian as befits a republic, but for many this is unsatisfactory ( for example, we cannot honour Ted Kennedy or others of his generation). Much service has been done Ireland and the Irish by her extended family – and they know it. While there is talk of introducing an honours system within a few years  the first beneficiaries if and when it happens are likely to be citizens. So don’t hold your breath.

There are many, this writer included, who would like to see more official recognition for the worldwide Irish family. Among them is David McWilliams, the young Irish economist,  who has advanced the insightful concept of the Mothership – Ireland – as a fruitful starting point for relations between Ireland and Irish communities elsewhere. He has argued that an interaction between Ireland and her diaspora could have a major and beneficial impact, “creating a  global network with the homeland at the fulcrum”. He has suggested Israel and the worldwide Jewish community as a possible model. This may be  stretching things, but it serves to make the point that our own kith and kin should receive special consideration. And this has particular resonance today,  with Ireland exposed to a much changed Europe amid a worsening economic situation. The idea merits and should receive serious consideration.  I will return to it.

END

5/4/09

LOOMING LISBON IAN 0904 II

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

LOOMING LISBON
Pity Bryan Cowen. Last June Ireland voted to reject the Lisbon Treaty to reform the European Union by 53% to 47%,  the only member state to have done so. The government has proposed holding a second referendum later this year. Another defeat would be incalculable in terms of our loss of influence, standing and friends in Europe at a time when we need the EU more than ever.  This is one vote the Taoiseach cannot afford to lose.
Ireland joined what has evolved into the European Union in 1973. As an institution the European Union is far from perfect. It is complex.  It has evolved from an initial six countries to the current membership of twenty seven. It is unique. Most of the countries of Europe, including traditional enemies, have come together to form a multinational community of nations.  The EU has developed a common currency, the Euro. A European Parliament has powers of approval of the EU budget.
However, it is not a United States of Europe. Countries retain their sovereignty in most areas, including taxation, and national governments continue to function . Areas where countries have agreed to pool sovereignty are administered by a supranational body called the Commission. Decision making and debate occurs in the Council of Ministers, with countries voting according to a formula based on size and population. The EU is continuing to evolve and to develop policies to meet the challenges its members face today. Its institutions badly need streamlining and overhauling, hence the Lisbon Treaty.
Arguably, the current financial and economic crisis in Ireland will pass, particularly in the context of an international  recovery. Public spending can be brought under control, through higher taxes (sooner rather than later), cuts in government spending across the board as well as a (regrettable but necessary) pruning or postponement of much of the capital projects planned for the next five years. There will be much pain but it can be done.
The effort could all be wasted, however, by another No vote on Lisbon.  A somewhat similar situation occurred in 2001, when the Nice Treaty referendum – essential for the major enlargement of the EU – was unexpectedly defeated in a very low turnout (34%). .The issue was put again and carried comfortably by 63% to 37% the following year, based on some assurances and guarantees given to Ireland by her partners. However, ominously, the number voting No actually increased second time around.
Winning a new referendum is going to be an uphill struggle The turnout last June was  53%, considerably higher than in Nice Two, with many more voting No and fewer voting Yes. This has removed the 2001 argument  that a low turnout in some way justified a re-run, given the issues and the feeling that the electorate took its eye off the ball. Next time also there will be no moral pressure (a vote for enlargement) and no tangible economic benefit from voting Yes.  Ireland’s recent prosperity and the entry of a slew of poorer countries has ensured there will be no more European monies flowing into Ireland.
Even the massed support of most of the Irish establishment for a Yes vote will give Brian Cowen little comfort.. Current opinion polls are showing a Yes majority , but we have been here before. In the run up to last June, and again in 2001, there appeared to be a comfortable majority in favour. An inept campaign, almost as bad as that of 2001, contributed to last June’s defeat. The government was wrong footed from the start by  the Treaty’s opponents, who, well marshalled and well financed, seized the initiative early on and never lost it. Will this time will be different?
The benefits Ireland has derived from EU membership have been immense. Economically Europe has provided markets for our exports, subsidised our farmers and provided billions to develop our infrastructure. Our success in attracting US and other foreign investment, with the attendant jobs  and prosperity, would not have been possible without Europe. Politically Europe has given Ireland an independent and respected voice at the European table. and has provided valuable assistance in resolving the Northern Ireland problem.
Ireland has enhanced her identity in Europe. When Ireland joined the then EC in 1973, our living standards were half those of our partners; 35 years on we have caught up. The changes in Irish society have been profound and positive. Ireland’s population has increased, emigration ended and an enhanced national self-confidence has emerged. Within the EU Ireland has been perceived as a success and a role model for the new poorer members. Every opinion poll shows a large majority in favour of EU membership.
Why then the No vote?  One major pointer was that much of the electorate felt ill informed about what Lisbon would mean, and were frustrated by the size, complexity and basic unreadability of the treaty document .The No Lobby attacked this opaqueness effectively, with their most articulate spokesman calling for a constitution like that of the USA as he theatrically binned the Lisbon Treaty document. There were  also complaints that Ireland would lose out in terms of influence under the new voting arrangements in the EU’s governing body – the Council (true, but how could Ireland expect to hold its share when other countries were also making compromises to absorb more equitably the new members?).
The proposal in the draft treaty that Ireland, again like every other member state, would lose its designated member on a smaller EU Commission, (one of the unique European institutions) for five years out of fifteen, excited particular opposition and became almost totemic. Other issues causing disquiet included fears that Ireland might have to give up its favourable low rate of company taxation, which had brought much inward investment, and  that its military neutrality might be compromised.
Another factor, difficult to quantify, was a degree of public disillusionment , a sense that the good times associated with EU membership were over and that those at the top were out of touch.  The worsening economic situation (grasped by the public before the politicians), the huge influx and impact of foreign workers (from nil to 10% of the workforce in less than a decade), the drying up of European money,  and doubts about where the EU was heading in future (with further expansion planned into the Balkans), all contributed to this unease. The failure of the Yes side to address these issues adequately together with the unchallenged assertion that a No vote would have no repercussions for Ireland invited the negative outcome.
Since then the Government, with some assistance from Europe, has attempted an “Operation Stable Door”. The Irish Commissioner has been salvaged.  Solemn and “legally binding” assurances or declarations on some of the other problematic issues for Ireland have been promised by our partners. The Government can point to these as evidence that Europe has come to meet us to justify putting the issue to the people again. With the economy in freefall our need for friends in Europe, which constitutes our comfort blanket, has never been greater. Whether the voters will agree remains to be seen. There is a dangerous argument gaining currency that Europe will have to bend to our wishes, that the other 26 can do nothing without us. These are Interesting Times. I would not bet the family silver on that outcome!
END

2/28/09

THE SHAMROCK TSUNAMI IAN 0903 I

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

THE SHAMROCK TSUNAMI
This time two years ago I was a Euro-Millionaire. Not a multi-millionaire, but, for someone who started out with nothing, it was an achievement. And, in Ireland there were thousands like me, ordinary people whose net worth was in excess of one million euro. It was, of course, all based on the prevailing price levels of property in Ireland.  A fairly modest house, with a small plot, which would sell in a Chicago suburb for half a million dollars at most, was retailing in Dublin and other Irish cities for at least twice that. In the swankier suburbs houses were sold for much more.
The rest of the economy was in synch. The stock market had never been higher, there were jobs in abundance and 10% of the work force were “New Irish” – immigrants, mostly from Eastern Europe,  who had come to Ireland to work.  Ireland was riding high, with, on paper, on of the highest per capita incomes in the world. The Celtic Tiger was roaring. . We believed the rhetoric, our hubris knew no bounds. Like Icarus we flew higher and higher. The unique and temporary set of circumstances which had combined to create our prosperity was regarded as something immutable and that prosperity itself as our manifest destiny. Life was good. Irish people, on an unprecedented scale,  were enjoying North American standards of living, with rising social benefits to boot. Our infrastructure, long the butt of visitors’ jokes, was being modernised  The population had reached levels not seen for over a century and the demographics were promising, with the youngest population and the fewest old people in Western Europe.
True there were excesses. Those with money were not afraid to show it.  In 2006 Ireland, apparently, had the highest per capita private ownership of  helicopters in the world (who makes these calculations?); “EVERYONE owns a helicopter”, one multi – millionaire businessman remarked to me. Even among those who didn’t, purchases of Mercedes, Beamers and high-end SUVs were sufficiently common to make it appear the roads were choked with them. But the prosperity had trickled down , and spread out. Altogether, in the three years 2005-2007, 671,000 fresh automobiles were registered, one for every five people in the country aged fifteen and up .  The purchase of holiday homes and investment properties in Ireland and in locations like Bulgaria, Turkey and elsewhere became commonplace, not just for the wealthy but for many others, cashing in on the equity in their houses.
But that was then and this is now. “All changed, changed utterly!“   I am still probably a dollar millionaire – just – chiefly because of the decline of the dollar against the euro and also assuming I could find someone willing to buy my house. House prices are down by 25%, at a very conservative estimate, and continuing to fall.  $100,000 randomly invested in Irish shares two years ago would now be worth around $25,000, with bank shares having fallen even more spectacularly. Unemployment has soared by 80% in the last year to a record level of 327,861. The optimists hope for a figure of 400,000 by year’s end;  the pessimists fear half a million or more. Many of the Eastern Europeans have returned home. The Celtic Tiger has collapsed, and the Irish economy is imploding . Dismay is giving way to panic as yesterday’s bad news is overtaken by today’s even worse developments.
The slide began with the building industry. At first it was classic economics: oversupply, unsold units, price cuts and then job cuts. The stock market faltered, then began to fall. Questions were raised about the health of the banks, particularly after the sub-prime crisis hit the US. More jobs went, at first domestic and then, as the crisis gathered pace, some of the large multinationals on which we prided ourselves began to “rationalise”, to downsize their Irish operations and to relocate in lower cost locations. Dell, the fulcrum for much of the economy around Limerick, is to move its manufacturing operation to Poland. The knock-on effects on its local suppliers have already begun. Other companies are expected to follow suit or to  scale back.
An Irish icon, Waterford Glass, ceased operations at the end of January. Currency movements have priced our exports out of our largest market, Britain. Our competitiveness has been eroded, with labour and energy costs in particular too high. Negative equity and simple inability to pay mortgages through lost jobs has begun to  stalk the middle classes. The Celtic Tiger has been swept away by the Shamrock Tsunami!.
How bad is it? How bad will it get? Yes there is a recession in the USA and elsewhere, which is going to require careful (and lucky) management to prevent it developing into something worse. But in Ireland the perception – at least as important as the reality – is that ours is worse. For if the USA has caught a cold, Ireland has caught pneumonia. A joke circulating in Dublin – indignantly rejected by the Government – is that the only differences between Ireland and Iceland (in the grip of an economic meltdown) are one letter and six months. The talk now is not of the recession of the 1980s but of the calamitous 1950s, when hope appeared to disappear and when many families, including my own, left the country.
There is  very little room for manoeuvre. Tax revenues have collapsed. Government spending was expanded considerably in the Tiger years, financed largely by revenues from the building boom. This year the Government will have to borrow 20% of what it spends. This is unsustainable and a start has to be made by raising taxes or cutting spending or both. The problem is that the public is in denial about the extent of what needs to be done. There is a mood of public frustration and scapegoats are sought, whether the bankers, the public sector or the higher paid. Given that 38% of the workforce pay no income tax and that the top 20% pay 75% of all income tax, the scope for squeezing the rich seems limited on that front.
A levy is to be imposed on public sector workers, whose employment is guaranteed. This appears only the first step. Property taxes, hitherto a political no – no, and a strict means-testing of some benefits appears next, together with hikes in direct taxes, sooner rather than later. The problem is that, even if these prove sufficient to balance the books, there will be nothing with which to stimulate the economy. A lengthy period of adjustment and starkly lower living standards looms with nothing guaranteed.
There is no consensus on a solution. The government has tried unsuccessfully to achieve one, involving  the main interest groups. More bad news in the coming months may concentrate minds or at least provoke an informed debate. The traditional safety valve of emigration seems not an option and the whole means and pace of recovery, when our comparative advantages have gone, is problematic. There is brave talk that, when the world economy begins an upturn, Ireland will be well poised and equipped to avail of it. Hopefully this will prove the case, but it is likely to be an Ireland much changed from the giddy heights of the recent past.
END
2/9/09

Blood Harvest review

by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

BLOOD HARVEST: S. J. BOLTON

 I have to confess I’d never heard of S.J. Bolton before now. The piece below was almost totally written before I read the author’s notes on her website about  writing the book. My conclusions were actually borne out by her comments.

It will probably come as no surprise that I liked the book – a lot. In part it was because it was set in the area of England where I grew up – indeed there are references to the market in the small town where  I lived – Rawtenstall – and the story is rich in the atmospherics of the  curious rural/urban setting of the Lancashire/Yorkshire borders. The author is from the area, though is a bit coy about specifying exactly where.

I read the book at a setting, and enjoyed it so much that I took out and read her two previous books, Sacrifice and Awakening. All three books have certain similarities of style and content, and frankly I think this one is the best of the three – it’s more controlled and slightly more believable and with fewer loose ends. Sacrifice, for example, set in the Shetlands, features a cult carrying out savage and ritualistic killings; the book ends without any explanation of the how and the why of the ritual. Awakening , set in Dorset, features deadly poisonous snakes, though it is memorable for another reason- an Elmer Gantry, Ian Paisley style Pentecostal preacher.

All three share some great descriptive pieces of locations, all have been meticulously researched and all feature as heroes (though perhaps that’s too strong a word) outsiders or loners. There are strong hints that perhaps Ms.Bolton is related to a Cof E clergyman though there are in addition enough references to horse riding and to the activities of a rural vet to point to a personal familiarity with rural life in general. In two of the books also the heroine has a physical disability or deformity. In all three the heroine has a medical qualification.

I wasn’t sure at first whether Blood Harvest was scheduled to have a supernatural element (along the lines of John Connolly) to help the story along. This after encountering the early graveyard settings and the sightings of a mysterious figure. Indeed it could have functioned well as a ghost story, suitably amended. If you google the author, her notes on writing the book bear out her interest in a supernatural thriller as well as acceptance that it was never a runner. She also reveals that the opening incident, of a subsidence adjacent to an old cemetery, beside a new house, was based on an actual event which happened to her sister and family. This gave her the germ of the idea for the story (hence the dedication of the book “To the Coopers”).

She set the story also in a location very close to where she grew up, though calling the village in the book Heptonclough (rather than Heptonstall), a clearly mythical Pennine town fringing one of the moors straddling the Lancashire/ Yorkshire border, not too far from Halifax. Throw in also the gothic setting of a ruined abbey, an accompanying later church and crypts and you have a dual purpose backdrop (a ruined church is central to Awakening also). I would not be surprised  were she to try a supernatural thriller before much longer.

The hero is a distinctly unclergy-like clergyman, a Geordie (it’s hard to picture a vicar or priest with a Geordie accent) whose preoccupation seems to be with pursuing the heroine rather than tending to his flock. The heroine is a wheelchair bound psychiatrist with a passion for horse riding. The tragic figure is provided in the first instance by a young woman riven by guilt over the death of her infant child in a fire.

The story includes intriguing references and examples of English rural customs such as the harvest festival , corn dollies, Pennine spirals and the like. The festival unique to the book is the Blood Harvest festival , a late autumn occurrence dating back to times when superfluous livestock were solemnly ritually slaughtered for consumption over the winter. (There’s some interesting stuff in Wikipedia on the various pre-Christian annual festivals – look up Wheel of the Year; cf also references to Bealtaine Lammas and Samhain festivals.)The book features an interesting variant on Bonfire Night (5 November) suggesting that it was in some way an adaptation of the earlier All Souls festival. (Possibly it was – but the fact remains that Guy Fawkes was found in the House of Lords on the night of 4 November)

The body count begins to mount – mostly very young girls, indeed the theme, according to the author, is children in danger. The tale as it eventually unfolds involves incest and pedophilia in an almost droit de seigneur  fashion towards young local children by the  town’s patriarchal magnate. Interwoven with this is a sad tale of generations of children in the locality suffering from congenital hypothyroidism, a disorder arising from a diet deficient in iodine, which in the case of the townspeople of Heptonclough was attributable to eating locally produced vegetables!  Environmentalists take note!

By the end justice has been done, the bad vanquished, the vicar has decided he doesn’t have a vocation and the novel’s sad Ophelia has met her fate. The surprising killer, though with mitigating circumstances – insanity – is female. The psychiatrist heroine is recuperating but unwilling/unable to allow the budding relationship with the vicar to develop. Interestingly, in Awakening, the facially disfigured heroine,  who is a vet, also has trouble relating to others (though with a very valid reason), while in Sacrifice the heroine doctor long harbours grave suspicions of her husband.

I found the book to be a page turner and a very good read, but then perhaps I was biased from the off. The book uses widely the device of short chapters (83 in 380 pages before a lengthy blockbuster final chapter); this is a considerable development from her earlier novels, where the chapter lengths were roughly one and a half or twice as long. There are fewer loose ends, in the form, inter alia, of the introduction of secondary characters, never fully developed  but with important roles to play. The author herself seems to be pleased with the character development in Blood Harvest, and to regard it as an advance in style, with which I concur.

A further development in her evolution as an author is that  in her most recent books she seems to be creating a serial heroine – Policewoman Lacey Flint –  for the future. On balance a writer to watch, certainly one to enjoy. Seven out of ten.

18/4

NOLLAIG NA MiG

by paleoutlaw, posted in Memoirs

NOLLAIG NA MiG

There was a sequel to ”My Christmas 1991.” It had no happy ending.

Serbia is one of the countries which celebrates the Orthodox Christmas on January 7. An event on January 7 1992 marked a significant development  in the evolution of the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Community as it then was, by putting into sharp focus the reality and limitation of that policy in practice.

As Jugoslavia moved towards disintegration in the summer of 1991, the European Community decided to get involved. A better description might be that the EC decided to fool in. This was, of course, a period of euphoria in western Europe. The collapse of communism in 1989 had led to the formation of nascent democracies in central Europe and to the reunification of Germany in 1990. The Soviet Union appeared to be in its death throes. The USA was preoccupied with the aftermath of the first Gulf War.

A complicated situation obtained in Jugoslavia, where pressure was building  up within the Federal Republic, with Slovenia and Croatia, on one side of the western/orthodox fault line which ran through the country, ultimately seeking independence from Belgrade. Jugoslavia and its republics had strong economic and historical ties with the bigger EC states so it was to be expected that the EC would take an interest in what was happening in its back yard. Since the revolutions had been peaceful elsewhere  in Central Europe, with the exception of Romania, the assumption was that there would be peaceful change also in Jugoslavia, a country where  several millions of western Europeans holidayed.

As events moved towards open warfare, an accord was signed at Brioni in Croatia on July 7, brokered by the EC, between representatives of Slovenia, Croatia,  the Federal Republic of Jugoslavia, and the European Troika of three Foreign Ministers. Entering the negotiations Luxembourg Foreign Minister Poos declared “The Hour of Europe has dawned.” Arising out of the Brioni Accord a European Community Monitor Mission (ECMM) to Jugoslavia was established.

The monitors, who came from most of the EC member states, Canada, Sweden and (then) Czechoslovakia, were a mixture of military, diplomats and bureaucrats, all unarmed and identifiable only by their white clothing. There was no armed back-up. In two MOUs, in July and September, the host parties guaranteed “the Monitor Mission” and its personnel , “ vehicles, vessels, aircraft and equipment”  full protection and unrestricted freedom of movement within the Mission area. Despite these assurances monitors were involved in several near misses and the Mission’s helicopters were grounded after being shot at.

As full scale war developed that summer between Croatia and Serbia, wearing the thin disguise of the Federal Republic and its army, the JNA,  the role of the European monitors became the thankless one of seeking to monitor numerous ceasefire agreements, some general, some local. A suggestion now current is that Croatia, under its leader, Tudjman, used the tactic of repeated ceasefires, factoring in the ECMM as pawns, to gain time while Croatia, massively outgunned, and with only one diplomatic champion, admittedly the heavy hitter, Germany, sought arms and international support. Media coverage of events helped with the second, Croatia being cast as victim. A UN arms embargo inhibited the first; Serbia was already heavily armed, Croatia was not, relying for the most part on smuggled weaponry and what could be seized from JNA barracks in Croatia.

What became clear very rapidly was that the EC had bitten off considerably more than it could chew.  The role of an international policeman presupposes military clout, and, ultimately, the political will to use it. The EC had neither. Faced with the passions on both sides, ethnic cleansing (the phrase had not yet been coined), massacres and heavy shelling of civilian population centres, carried out overwhelmingly by the Serbs, it became obvious that the boy-scout style mission of the ECMM was not going to solve anything.

In retrospect, and as more evidence becomes available, it appears that  the essential  shape of what was to come was established from early autumn 1991. The failed coup in Moscow and its aftermath  removed the Soviet Union as a factor. Slovenia was free to go its own way and Serb war aims in Croatia had crystallised into occupying, protecting  and cleansing areas with significant Serb populations, i.e. the Krajina (around 30% of Croatian territory). Hence Vukovar, hence Osijek and other Croatian outposts, the fate of Vukovar a small grim foretaste of what was to come in Sarajevo and Srebenice. Croatian independence  was not seriously in doubt provided some issues could be resolved, most importantly the evacuation of Serb men, weapons and armour from locations in Croatia.

But Europe wanted out and both sides realised that the EC had neither the political will nor the military means to impose a solution. The only alternative was the UN, which again, would not enforce a peace but only administer one with a peacekeeping force. This took some arranging. A deal was brokered by the UN in late November under which the EC monitors would play another and important role of facilitating UN intervention through safely evacuating Serb forces from within Croatia; this to be completed by Christmas Day. A general binding and comprehensive ceasefire would follow and bed in, after which a UN force, designated UNPROFOR, would be introduced.

The timetable for evacuation was met and a general ceasefire came into operation on 3 January 1992. The deal signalled the independence of unoccupied Croatia, since UN intervention tends to solidify ceasefire lines. Separately, under strong pressure from Germany, the EC, with some reluctance, had agreed to recognise Croatian independence just before Christmas, to take effect on 15 January. Not only was a major German policy objective realised but Germany appears  to have grasped, earlier than other member states, that  the logic of events for several months had been that Croatian independence was not only inevitable but would not be opposed by Belgrade or the JNA once their tactical aims had been achieved.

There remained only the crossing of t’s and the dotting of I’s.  One such was to get the ECMM helicopters flying again. Despite the assurances and guarantees in the MOUs they had been shot at in September, and grounded thereafter. Since then any flying applications made had been turned down by the Jugoslav Federal Air Traffic Control Authority(FATCA), which had banned flights over Croatia and Slovenia and which still clung to the fiction of a single federal Jugoslav state. With the ceasefire the situation changed. The helicopters flew, authorised by the JNA.

Then, disaster. At 14.09 hrs. on 7 January, the Serbian Orthodox Christmas, two ECMM helicopters, flying from Belgrade to Zagreb, were attacked by a JNA MiG in Northern Croatia; one was shot down, killing the five monitors on board. Compared to the thousands of war victims this was minor. But it was traumatic. These were the first European Community casualties, anywhere, volunteers, unarmed and on a peaceful mission on behalf the EC; the brave new world of the “Hour of Europe” got a reality check.

The subsequent enquiries served only to underline the obvious, that, at a time of a total ceasefire, which specifically covered and mentioned cessation of all hostilities in the air, a JNA MiG, flying at 900km per hour, had shot down a clearly identifiable (painted white  with ECMM markings) unarmed ECMM helicopter travelling at 150km, killing those on board. The JNA knew about the flight; it even had the flight plans.

There was another ECMM aircraft in the air at the time of the shooting down, a fixed wing with eight on board. They included two Ambassadors, the ECMM Head of Mission and his predecessor, as well as the deputy Head of Mission and his predecessor, both Generals; and me. Originally scheduled to fly from Belgrade to Sarajevo, the flight was aborted as Sarajevo was closed by snow. Instead a flight plan was filed for a journey back to Graz in Austria, and the plane duly took off at 13.24 hrs. The flight followed the route of the helicopters into Hungary towards Kaposvar , shadowed by a MiG for a while before we turned north west for Graz at about where the helicopters would have turned south west for the Croatian border at Varazdin . The HOM was informed by phone of the helicopter’s fate during the final descent into Graz at 14.15 hrs.

The JNA  denied emphatically any suggestion that the wrong aircraft had been targeted and claimed human error and faulty procedures over flight clearance. The basic issue of an unprovoked attack in breach of an otherwise fully observed ceasefire was never addressed . The MiG pilot was eventually apprehended, tried and jailed by the Italians, whose men had been killed.  Yet air force majors don’t shoot to cause an international incident during a ceasefire. Someone more senior to him issued the instruction to open fire.

ISSUES FOR IRELAND 2012 (I) NEUTRALITY

by paleoutlaw, posted in Current Affairs

ISSUES FOR IRELAND 2012  (I) NEUTRALITY

Even if there is no referendum in 2012 on or about the Euro, there will be a passionate public debate on the totality of Ireland’s relationship with Europe. If the previous debates are anything to go by, there is likely to be more heat than light. And, while European defence and Irish neutrality should be peripheral to any debate on what are primarily economic and financial issues, the old chestnut of the threat to Irish neutrality of any further European integration is likely to crop up – the more so in the context of a tighter union outside (even if overlapping with) the existing EU treaty framework .

I published the following piece, on Irish Neutrality, in the United States in November 2009, just after the vote on Lisbon 2. I could have written a lot more but the column was confined to 1200 words. I post it now, unamended, as we enter 2012:

“IRISH NEUTRALITY

Ireland is not a member of NATO, nor is membership likely. Yet few things can be calculated to raise blood pressure (and voices) more at the dinner table or over some drinks than the subject of Irish neutrality. In the campaign on the Lisbon referendum just ending the issue has again loomed large. No one can seriously get worked up over the proposed changes in qualified majority voting, or the alleged threat of legalised abortion, or even over the prospect of a future ukase from Brussels on our company taxation rate. But mention European Defence and the spectres conjured up include conscription into a European army, involvement in foreign wars and the loss of our international “nice guy” image. In vain have the “Yes” side pointed out that Lisbon threatens none of this. Debates on neutrality generate much heat without corresponding light!

The intellectual justification for Irish neutrality can be summarised briefly. Our history of centuries-long subjugation to English rule involved us, involuntarily, in British military and colonial ventures worldwide. Independence finally gave us an opportunity to gain distance and determine our own policy. Most famously we asserted our neutrality during World War Two (described in Ireland as “The Emergency”). We were fortunate in that we were not attacked or invaded, like the Netherlands or the Baltic States. Ireland’s geographical location and island status were vital factors in maintaining our neutrality, as was the fact that we were not in the way of the major belligerents or their war plans.

Whatever moral doubts we had about not fighting the Nazis could be assuaged by the presence, on the allied side, of the equally monstrous tyranny of Stalin’s regime. The response of De Valera to Churchill’s intemperate outburst over Irish neutrality in 1945 is recalled with pride (his signing the book of condolences for Hitler’s death generates embarrassed silence). Post 1945, staying out of NATO was justified, at first semantically, by the issue of Partition, and later, after Stalin’s death, by an expressed wish to stay outside the military alliances of the Cold War. With the collapse of the Soviet Union the case for joining a military alliance further diminished.

To avoid charges of isolationism, Ireland could point instead to a long standing support for collective security; starting with her involvement with the League of Nations and proceeding through to the United Nations. Ireland’s high-profile involvement in UN Peacekeeping operations – a source of national pride – could be cited. Irish soldiers have died in such operations from the Congo in 1960 onwards – the first Irish troops to die overseas for Ireland and in the cause of the UN. Ireland was seen as one of a small number of reliable UN members which could always be counted upon to step up to the plate when troops were needed. And being militarily neutral was felt to increase Ireland’s acceptability for involvement in sensitive UN peacekeeping operations.

Military neutrality enjoys wide popular support, at least according to opinion polls. This is perfectly understandable. No one likes or wants war. Avoiding the horrors of World War Two was a plus. Our UN peacekeeping record another plus. Not having a colonial past or the moral ambiguities of involvement in questionable military ventures are other positives, qualifying Ireland for a potential “honest broker” role. All in all, neutrality sits well with public self-perception of Ireland as non-aggressive, anti-colonialist, progressive and supportive of assisting the Third World. Brownie points are awarded (subjectively) for the moral superiority associated with being neutral.

Neutrality has again become a live issue as the world has proved to be less secure in the post Cold War era. There have been moves within the European Union (which contains three other non-NATO countries) to develop a common defence and security policy. These moves were given impetus and some degree of urgency by the wars in Croatia and Bosnia, where meddling by the EC as it then was, was accompanied by total impotence militarily when faced with the forces unleashed, and where peace was achieved eventually only through US intervention. The high watermark of these moves, as set out in the Lisbon Treaty, proposes mutual assistance (of whatever form) where a member state is attacked, and a vague commitment to improve national military capability.

These moves have galvanised Ireland’s neutrality lobby, which sees them, despite Government denials, as the first steps on a slippery slope. This against a background of daily television reports from Iraq and Afghanistan. Indeed the Iraq fiasco has focussed attention also on the use of Shannon Airport by the US military as a troop stopover. The government has held firm against demands that this use be ended as it contravenes “Irish neutrality”.

Any attempt at debate on neutrality rapidly turns into a dialogue of the deaf. The suggestion that Ireland should do its bit to cooperate, in the context of membership of a Union which has served Ireland well, has had a mixed reception. Ditto with the argument that, if we are seriously neutral we should develop our defence capabilities like other neutrals (Sweden, Finland, Switzerland) so that we could give our neutrality a practical status. Indeed this argument is neatly sidestepped by a variant of the “nice guy” theme – who would want to attack Ireland, so why spend money on defence?

Ireland’s get out of jail card, action by and through the UN, has lost much of its lustre in the face of the manifest failures of the UN in Bosnia and Rwanda in the 1990‘s. Whether sufficient force could have been marshalled by the UN in time to prevent the genocide in Rwanda is debateable. What is a fact is that the Srebrenica massacre took place within a so-called “UN Safe Haven” which proved anything but. While the UN “is all we have”, as a leading Irish left wing politician put it to me, its shortcomings have become more apparent with the end of the Cold War paralysis.

The fact that a veto-wielding Permanent Member of the Security Council can thwart international action when its interests or those of a client state are at risk has become more evident in recent years. So also the difficulty of organising effective action against a regime practicing internal repression. “Collective action” and sanctions are difficult to enforce and often the regime remains untouched while the ordinary populace suffers (consider the sanctions against Iraq after the first Gulf War). We have become sadder, if not wiser, at world events this decade.

The nature of the debate within the EU on defence, and the mixed enthusiasm for involvement in NATO’s mission in Afghanistan among those EU states involved, means that it is likely to be some time before EU policy in this area has developed. Ireland’s military neutrality, in all practical senses, is not under threat. Only an attack could change this. One is reminded of the story that in 1940 Queen Juliana telephoned Churchill to tell him that Holland (neutral during the First World War) was under attack from Germany and asked what he was going to do about it. What indeed!”

VACLAV HAVEL

by paleoutlaw, posted in Current Affairs

VACLAV HAVEL

The rather moth-eaten claim that “Ireland is at the heart of Europe”, which politicians like to parrot, took another dent yesterday with the funeral of Vaclav Havel in Prague.

Havel’s career is too well known to need repeating here in any detail. A poet and a playwright, Havel emerged from 1968 on as a leading political dissident who determinedly opposed communism and was a passionate supporter of non-violent resistance to the regime. He was imprisoned on a number of occasions, including almost five years from 1979 to 1984. He was lucky to have come to the fore when communism was atrophying; a generation earlier and he would probably have been murdered for his views, like the former Hungarian premier Imre Nagy, and others right across Central Europe whose fate is largely unknown or forgotten, disappeared into the century.

When communism began to crumble, once Gorbachev eschewed its trademark policies of murder, torture, mock trials, imprisonment and political oppression,  Havel came to the fore as a leading member of the Velvet Revolution which swept the communists from power. He became Czechoslovakia’s first President and, later, when the country split peacefully, he served two terms as President of the Czech Republic.

Our politicians could probably take a few lessons from the Czechs and the Slovaks on what  it really means to lose sovereignty ; their country  dismembered and occupied by the Nazis after 1938 and then to suffer a police state for four decades after the war, under a regime imposed and maintained by the Red Army. Havel first came to prominence when  Warsaw Pact forces invaded in 1968 to crush the Prague Spring.

It is worth recalling that , when Fianna Fail was  planning and executing its master plan for the 1977 elections, and seriously undermining the country’s tax base in the process, Havel, with a number of other dissidents, was publishing Charter 77 to protest – peacefully – the Czech government’s failings in the human rights area, including breaches of international commitments. By 1979, when Haughey was lecturing the Irish for living beyond their means, Havel was beginning a five year gaol sentence for subversion, for protesting the treatment of Charter 77 signatories.

But that was then and this is now. The bridge has seen much water pass under it. We pride ourselves on our human rights record and our profile internationally on similar issues. We support non-violence and even offer our expertise internationally  in conflict resolution, based on our  experience in Northern Ireland. We espouse the notion that all 27 EU member states are equal and speak of building alliances with like-minded member states. For all of these reasons Vaclav Havel was the type of person we should admire and mourn his passing as one of the significant figures – for good  – in Central Europe over the last 30 odd years.

Yet at his funeral, attended by many international heavy hitters including the Presidents of France and Germany, and Prime Ministers including Angela Merkel and David Cameron, Ireland was represented by the charge in Prague. Former President Mary Robinson attended, and is to be applauded for doing so. But where were the politicians? We couldn’t even rustle up a junior minister to do a same day journey on the government jet. They can’t all have been busy – or shopping. For a country where attendance at funerals is part of the political culture, this was a poor show, all the more so as Havel deserved it. Shame. Heart of Europe?

MY CHRISTMAS 1991

by paleoutlaw, posted in Memoirs

MY CHRISTMAS, NINETEEN NINETY ONE

It began on Christmas Eve.

We had started with a particularly hair-raising mission, to supervise the de-mining of the runways at Zagreb Airport. The attempt to remove the minefields around the airport had been abandoned some days previously  following an explosion which had killed or wounded half the Serb de-mining unit. A mine had exploded where none should have been. The conclusion was that over the years the position of the mines in the ground  had shifted slightly, probably due to decades of harsh winters, and the maps of the minefields were no longer reliable. The task would await the spring thaw.

The runways were different, and had to be cleared and the JNA planes flown out before Christmas to hand the airport over  to the Croatians on schedule.  Narrow tunnels beneath the main runways and slip ways had been  packed with explosives in black salami-like rolls several metres long. As they were pulled out, they appeared to be sweating and received careful and prudent handling from the Serb detail involved as we looked on. The soldiers were commanded by a very young and very emotional Serb captain. He had been present when the mine had killed his comrades. He described himself as devastated by the war. His marriage to a Croatian girl was breaking up, with her family vowing to have nothing to do with him or other Serbs. He cried as he talked with us.

The airport hangers held a number of JNA MiGs, mostly M21s, and one very surprising addition,  a pristine looking MiG 29, bearing the markings of the Iraqi Air Force. It was less than a year since Desert Storm, the war to liberate Kuwait, and Saddam Hussein, in a prescient  attempt to preserve what he could of his air force from annihilation, sent the cream of his fighters abroad as the conflict loomed. Some had obviously been  sent to Jugoslavia, which had been a major supplier of armour to Iraq during the 1980s. All the planes were gone when we attended the handover on Christmas morning.

Dinner that evening was  a merry affair. Most of the Monitors had returned home for the holiday and those of us left were treated to wine a plenty, compliments of the HOM  and his brigadier. During the meal the HOM addressed us and asked for volunteers for the next day’s mission, to complete the evacuation of Serb forces from the airport and escort them through the front lines to the Krajina.  There would be no tasking; it would be volunteers only, as the risk in crossing No Man’s Land was felt to be higher than usual. This convoy would be the last and would complete the evacuation of Serb forces from unoccupied Croatia. The way would then be clear for introduction of a UN peacekeeping force.

However, even if the Serbs knew the writing was on the wall with the arrival of the UN, which would cement the existing front line for who knew how long, they  were still seething at the EC decision only days before to  recognize Croatian independence and were believed to be planning something to mark their displeasure. The Croatians were also thought to be holding off more serious fighting until the Serbs were got out. The last convoy would be symbolic; it would pass through all right but the   return for the  Monitors might be more problematic. Despite the added risk there were plenty of volunteers.

Midnight Mass in Zagreb Cathedral was brought forward  to 9.00 p.m. on foot of rumours of  an air strike on the Cathedral. The Cardinal officiated, the Cathedral was packed to overflowing  and the solemn sung high mass moving. The attendance included the Croatian president Franjo Tudman, who was mobbed by Mass-goers. The memory of ordinary Croatians surging forward trying just to touch (!) him is not easily forgotten. The scenes afterwards on a cold clear night outside the Cathedral were ones of extraordinary emotion with many people openly in tears. We were thanked and congratulated frequently,  though hectored on occasion about the arms embargo which in practice bore most heavily on the Croatian side.  Evident everywhere, however, was the new sense of confidence and relief that the worst was now over, and freedom assured, which EC recognition had brought.

We started early on Christmas morning. Overnight snow lent a frigid white aspect to  everything and a thin but persistent chill mist halved normal visibility. We seemed to be the only vehicles on the road but had only gone a short distance when  our normally reliable Japanese land cruiser developed a fault. Attempts to repair it failed and we had to change vehicles . Waiting, shivering, for the replacement to arrive I remember thinking that this was not a good omen. Then on to the airport and to the adjacent barracks. The Serb soldiers were already packed up and ready to leave, most in high good humour and loaded into an assortment of military vehicles, several Ladas, and three buses. We were invited, with raucous shouts and laughter, to inspect the barrack buildings they had left. Most were scarcely fit for human habitation at the best of times but, as we soon saw, were not improved by the soldiers accepting their officers invitation  to use them as toilets, which they did in copious quantities.

I was hailed, by a Serb sergeant  with good English, to board a bus. The emotions on board were mixed, for included in the passengers was one of the bomb disposal survivors, just released from hospital, young and now blind, sedated and with his face covered by hospital gauze. Also on the bus was a very young and tearful  Croatian private, a conscript, standing in his socks. “We’re letting him go Europe, but we’re keeping his boots”, laughed the sergeant.  He bummed  from me a packet of cigarettes, the staple currency and luxury alike in that war. I helped the boy off the bus. His relief was palpable, but, just as I had seen elsewhere with other Croatian conscripts caught on the wrong side, there was little animosity towards him from the soldiers. The horrors of Bosnia were in the future, unimagined. The fact that  this was the regular JNA and not  irregular militia probably helped.

Then it was on, to Karlovac and the front line at Turanj. forty miles south of Zagreb. The mist had thickened, with visibility down to less than 100 yards as we left the Croatian defences. There had been intermittent shooting and mortaring throughout the morning and we were advised, in the lead vehicle, to sound the horn continuously as we drove the half mile or so to the Serbian lines along a road lined on both sides by shelled and burnt out houses .

We eventually reached the Croatian mines, marking the designated front line. It had become customary for both sides to seed the roadway here and at other crossing points with pressure mines designed to explode if a vehicle ran over one. They were harmless to an individual stepping on one, requiring several hundred kilos of pressure to detonate, as I had had demonstrated to me by a French captain and a Canadian major (from the Quebec Vingt-Deux) who had literally jumped on them at the same place a month before. It had become routine, as the convoys were being evacuated, for both sides to allow the other to move the mines to one side without hindrance, to allow the convoy to proceed. (This was not altruism; the Serbs wanted their men, weapons and armour back, the Croatians wanted them gone – a meeting of minds without impediment had followed!)

Then a hitch. Some weeks before, someone – I don’t know from which side – had shot one of those removing the mines. Emotions ran high; convoys were suspended. The compromise involved the Monitors stepping forward – literally. It was agreed by both sides that, since the Monitors’ personal security was guaranteed, when faced with mines on the road, the Monitors would step out together, step over the mines,  link arms and form a human shield, behind which  combatants from both sides would move the mines, safe from enemy snipers,  the process to be repeated on the other side and performed in reverse when the convoy had passed through. No one was very happy with it, but it worked.

This time it was different. “Claymores. Nasty”, said Mike, a British para colonel and a fount of good humour and common sense. Claymores were anti-personnel mines, easily triggered and with an estimated 10% faulty among Warsaw Pact ordnance. Four of them rested on a plank with a rope attached amid the pressure mines. “Do exactly as I say – exactly! Proceed as normal. Step over the pressure mines as usual. Whatever you do don’t step too close to that plank.” He was singing our song. We gladly complied, linking arms as usual. “Now for the tricky bit”. This from Mike as a Croatian soldier approached and began to pull on the rope to move the plank. It moved. “It’s o.k. They’re probably screwed down. It would be too dangerous otherwise. But you never know”. Indeed! The three of us with Mike realised we had been holding our breaths for some time.

Then we were through. It was plain sailing on the Serb side where the troops in the convoy were greeted fulsomely  by their fellow soldiers. We were offered coffee then slivovica;  I was relieved of the rest of my cigarettes. There was good humour towards us generally, though nobody said thanks, and the fact that we were in a war situation was brought home to us when a tank clanked into view, passed us and waved its turret menacingly towards the Croatian lines. We could hear the crackle of small arms fire though not near to where we were. I risked taking some photos – always a bone of contention, with the Serbs in particular complaining that we were photographing their positions (true, if inadvertently) and that this would be of military value to the Croatians (doubtful). They had recently detained briefly an Italian fool who had taken out a video camera and begun filming Serb soldiers openly while the convoy he was with passed through.

Then it was time to head back, with the mist now substantially disappeared. As we drove, the sporadic firing increased and became intense. By the time we reached the Croatian lines a mini battle was in progress, fortunately none directed towards us. Then, before we left the front line, a final task which fell to me. My three colleagues, all British, represented three generations of attendance at a military staff college, and wanted a souvenir photo.  There was only one possible location, an old bullet-pocked  building on the main road some yards from a sandbagged position. As I lined them up, the firing not only intensified but began to come closer.

“Hurry it up”, called Mike. “Take it and be quick about it” from Terry. I did so, just as bullets began to whistle  directly over our heads.  We abandoned the photo-shoot and  took refuge underneath the jeep for several minutes before proceeding back to base for a belated Christmas dinner.  “The hostilities had EC Monitors diving for cover” was how the BBC World Service reported the incident later that evening – to date the only occasion on which I have made the BEEB.  Unheroic, yes, but as anyone who has been under fire will tell you, discretion becomes very much the better part of valour. I would like to report that the photo of my fellow Monitors was well received; in fact my copy arrived with a note suggesting I not give up the day job.

THE HOUSEHOLD CHARGE, PROPERTY TAX AND RATES

by paleoutlaw, posted in Current Affairs

THE HOUSEHOLD CHARGE, PROPERTY TAX AND RATES

“An interim measure, set at a modest level and exempting many low income families” is how the Irish Times last Monday  described the new  Household Charge,  to be introduced at a flat rate of €100 per residence for the first year (2012), with limited exceptions.  It has been signalled as the precursor for  a more considered property tax to be introduced in 2014 but a story in today’s Irish Times (21 December)  suggests that the real tax may be brought forward to 2013, and will involve some form of self- assessment.

Everyone expected the €100 charge at least to double in 2013. A head of steam has been building up in opposition, with  a number of politicians ( left and  independents) plus some  high profile people, declaring they would not pay and urging  the public to boycott registering for the charge. One Socialist T.D. declared  that this issue could be the defining one for igniting public protest.  The decision to bring forward the property tax is clearly a political one designed to defuse the issue. (The cabinet also decided yesterday to tinker with the HSE in advance of phasing it out in preparation for the eventual introduction of universal health insurance. Again, the political intent is clear – to be seen to do something in an area subject to sustained public criticism, and where, moreover, there is mounting public anger at steep rises, announced and threatened, in the cost of private health insurance.)

Bringing forward the property tax to 2013 could show some Machiavellian intent also. Today’s story cites sample figures for a property tax based on the 2009 recommendations of the Commission on Taxation; not surprisingly the last government left these on the shelf. But even if the eventual rates introduced are substantially less than the samples mentioned, the tax is going to hurt, and hurt big time,  in any event, so why not get it over and done with quicker in the life of the government. Niccolo would certainly have approved.

Moreover, there is the bigger picture. It is just possible that, if there was full and frank discussion around the cabinet table, with the latest opinion polls and economic forecasts as background, the fast tracking of the property tax, which will hit the middle classes (some would say the coping classes) most, is the political quid pro quo from Fine Gael to Labour to secure its support for the inevitable cuts in welfare benefits and the probable reopening of the Croke Park Agreement necessary next year to try to tackle the structural budget deficit.

Perhaps that is crediting the politicians with too much. But assuredly the introduction of a property tax, however laudable the idea of one in theory, will test the government’s mettle and is likely to prove deeply unpopular. One consideration, not to be underestimated, is the widespread feeling among the middle classes that to describe a property tax as “widening the tax base” is cynical and misleading. As they see it, the same narrow group of people pay all the time.

This in fact is what led partially to the demise of the last attempt at a property tax, the Residential Property Tax (RPT). Deeply unpopular in concept, and introduced when a previous Fine Gael/ Labour government was on its uppers in the mid-1980s, the RPT relied on a system of self- assessment, with generous exemptions, the whole quickly degenerating into farce and non-compliance. It is important that this time the government gets it right. There is an opportunity now to establish a viable and reasonably equitable system, avoiding the mistakes and half-baked efforts of the past. And, incidentally, the amounts recommended for middle ranking  properties by the Commission on Taxation are probably less than what would have been the annual bill for domestic rates had they not been abolished in 1978.

It is worth recalling briefly the history of Domestic Rates– and its demise -in Ireland. Domestic Rates were levied in Ireland until 1977. They were extremely unpopular with those who had to pay them (local authority tenants were exempt), particularly in the latter years, as they began to rise sharply. The rates were levied by local authorities and used to fund their expenditure. This included – right down to the 1970s – a significant element spent on health and education, now paid from central funds, a historical hangover from the old Poor Law system.

Rates were calculated on an antiquated system of valuation, dating back to the mid-19th century, patched and amended piecemeal over the years. Theoretically the valuations were meant to factor in location, size of dwelling and plot, as well as amenities (indoor toilet, two bathrooms, etc.); in practice, like most patchwork efforts, the result was a melange demonstrating  very dubious levels of equity and fairness. The “valuations” were in 19th century money terms, translated into the present by a multiplier set annually by the local authority. For example ( a hypothetical but not unrealistic one) in 1975 a house with a rateable valuation of £20.00 could be levied at “£7.50 in the Pound” i.e. the annual bill would be £150.00. This at a time when the gross  average industrial wage was less than £2000 per annum!

How did people pay? The answer is “with great difficulty”. Pat Kenny spoke last week on radio about the  heavy burden on his parents of paying the rates. He did not exaggerate. Ask anybody who was a householder in 1975 about rates. It was, after income tax, the major financial item in the average annual household budget, and , unlike PAYE, it had to be paid in one or several instalments. A particularly devilish practice was for the local authority to “value” newly built houses – and there was a relatively significant  building boom in the early 70s – relatively highly, but to grant rates rebate on a sliding scale over 10 years (i.e. 90% declining to zero over 10 years). This helped ease in the heavy payments and to an extent neutralised coherent opposition to the system.

Yet opposition grew, particularly as rates increased dramatically in the late 60s in  line with public demands for better services at local level. The system was manifestly unfair, with house owners in new estates on the urban fringes with few amenities paying the same or more than those in older more desirable (and wealthier) areas (contrast, e.g. Raheny with Ranelagh, or Tallaght with Terenure). The rates burden even had a marginal effect on house sales, inhibiting some trading up and also first time buyers from buying older houses. Calls for reform were common, but no one seemed able to come up with anything workable. The usual Irish wringing of hands took place as the rates bill mounted.

Then came the 1973 General Election. Fianna Fail, in power for 16 years, and which fought the election initially on security issues, was wrong-footed by  a joint pre-election programme from Fine Gael and Labour which inter alia proposed to cut domestic rates by transferring the health and education elements to central government funding (in anticipation of the first income transfers from Brussels). As the election date approached, Fianna Fail, in a cynical and desperate attempt to avoid defeat, announced that, if returned to power, it would abolish rates on domestic dwellings. The ploy didn’t work and Fianna Fail was defeated, but it was perfectly obvious that , next time round, rates would be gone. And so it proved; Fianna Fail swept back in the famous give away election of 1977 and domestic rates were abolished.

By the mid-80s a national hangover had replaced the party atmosphere of 1977 and attempts were made to claw back the worst excesses of Fianna Fail’s 1977 largesse.  Road tax on cars was reinstated. All parties baulked, however, at “bringing back rates” (such had been its burden on the ordinary taxpayer)and the eventual solution was the Residential Property Tax (RPT) , half-hearted and half-baked. The RPT aimed at NOT being a resurrection of Rates, and it certainly achieved that. It relied on self-assessment, there was widespread non-compliance and anecdotally  considerable cooperation at community and street level leading to coordinated under declarations of market value. The tax yield , accordingly fell far short of expectations, and, at a time when property values were static and marginal tax rates very high, the tax proved very unpopular. The Irish Times editorial last Monday quoted Albert Reynolds’ famous remark that “a delivery boy on a bicycle would identify more qualifying properties in Dublin 4 in half-an –hour than had been registered with the Revenue Commissioners for many years.” The  government of the day finally threw in the towel in 1997 and the tax was dropped, coincidentally as the economy was picking up and pressure on government finances was easing.

It’s worthwhile looking at the operation of the RPT; there is much to be learned from it. It was an annual tax, charged on the market value of residential property owned and occupied on the valuation date of 5 April at a rate of 1.5%. So far so good. However, the exemptions and the system of self-assessment robbed it of teeth. Anybody renting was exempt. A market value exemption limit applied, as did an income exemption limit. These  were set at surprisingly generous figures. In 1996 the “market value exemption” was £101,000 (roughly €130,000) and the ”income exemption” was £30,100 (roughly €38,000); it should be noted that this was broadly equivalent to the top of the civil service assistant principal pay scale at the time.  Marginal relief applied for those with incomes less than £40,100 (€50,000), roughly what a T.D. was paid, and, to cap it all, the final tax payable was reduced by 10% per child. Throw in a system of self-assessment, where anyone caught by the income  threshold could “value” their own property and it is not difficult to see why the RPT proved farcical. It was the ultimate self-delusional  “tax” approved by politicians determined to heed lobby groups and avoid public opprobrium and discontent.  The analogy with the camel designed by a committee is not far off the mark. Legislators and the expert-group- to- be- established take note!

The modalities of the property tax are to be worked on in the months to come in time for a report to be submitted to the Minister by next April. There is early dire speculation that some form of self-assessment may be employed.  Let us hope this is not the case.  The country can’t afford it. Moreover, a small team of public servants, dedicated to the task in hand, should be able to value the vast majority of properties in the country in a short period of time. It’s not rocket science! The suburb where I live has roughly 1500 dwelling units and several estate agents. Virtually every house and apartment could be value assessed, roughly, in a day by two people. This could be replicated throughout most of urban Ireland. Much of the work could be done on the phone and on the Internet. Whatever was left, the fine tuning, of non-estate houses, of “period properties”,  could, again be inked in fairly quickly, using value bands. We don’t have to get it right; just roughly right – the small print can take care of serious deviations from the norm later.

After the valuation there are the issues of geography and exemptions. The geography issue certainly presents political dilemmas. Should house owners in high value areas such as Dublin or Galway pay a premium for living there rather than elsewhere, particularly if incomes are the same  across the board?  Should the teacher in Malahide pay more than the teacher in Carrickmacross, who perhaps has a superior property? And if so – how much more? Well, that’s what we elect a government to do – take the hard decisions. Ditto with exemptions. They should be as few as possible. The notion that large swathes of the population should be consciously exempted is, again, something the country cannot afford. So far the omens on this are not good. The Universal Social Charge was an attempt to get everyone to pay at least a little, thereby inculcating a sense of ownership and civic duty in place of the existing culture of entitlement and away from the notion that someone else would or should pay. However, the recent budget , by raising the income  threshold for payment, reversed much of this. Special pleading from or on behalf of the usual groups for exemption from the property tax can be anticipated. More in hope than expectation I would urge that this be resisted. Generally, perhaps a leaf could be taken from the old Rates’ practice of phasing in the full amount over a number of years!