Author: paleoutlaw

ANCESTRAL VOICES PROPHESYING WAR

Between now and the year’s end, the mettle of the government seems set to be tested.

The main issue will be framing the December  budget and finding cuts or increased taxes sufficient to meet the stated target of more than $4 billion in savings for 2013. The “easy bits” have been done. Given that Labour remains ideologically opposed to cuts in the basic levels of welfare payments, how agreement is secured will be interesting.

The Troika has suggested looking at the overarching sacred cow of universal benefits and introducing means testing on some of them, including child benefit and  the generous entitlements of the old (free travel,  free electricity among others). Last year’s bleating and handwringing by politicians and not so veiled threats from the interest groups involved have been trotted out again and we are still only in August. Have we advanced nothing since last December?

The government has thus far remained tight lipped about the small print on the property tax, likely to be the main new fiscal imposition,  beyond announcing that it will be collected by the tax authorities, thus avoiding the fiasco of the 2012 household charge, an issue which continues to rumble on. Could there be a quid pro quo  in a budget announcement on this to balance some semantic legerdemain on welfare benefits?

While tackling the economic mess is paramount,  and while the priority should be ensuring the public is educated and properly informed about  this issue, crucial to our national survival, the government continues to occupy  itself with near irrelevancies. The public debate on the abolition of the Senate is slowly gaining momentum. It is hardly a priority, may prove a distraction and will require a constitutional referendum. One is already scheduled on the rights of the child. Frankly these are indulgences we cannot afford at present.

Ditto the recent statement by Eamon Gilmore, deputy Taoiseach, that gay marriage is THE “civil right issue of this generation” (really?). Ditto also ideas floated to hike minimum prices for alcohol to curb teenage drinking, and suggestions to increase incrementally the price of cigarettes (already the highest in Europe) to $1 per cigarette!  A smuggler’s manifesto. All are superstructure issues when the priority is the substructure ( BTW,  the only Marx I identify with is Groucho, not Karl!).

Meanwhile there is to be a constitutional convention to review the current document . Already identified as issues to be addressed  are “priorities” such as removing blasphemy, reducing the term of the President to five years and  lowering the voting age from 18 to 17. These will undoubtedly lick the creaking pre -World War Two basic law, with its dated language and syntax, into an instrument fit for 21^st Century purpose.

In fairness,  there has been some improvement in the official financial situation due to some marginal easing on this year’s promissory note.  The  government is hoping additionally for some substantive (and substantial) relief – in whatever form – on the bank debt portion of our borrowing burden  and is upbeat on something emerging before December. Like every taxpayer I hope they are right. Any relief and its extent is contingent on events in the Eurozone and it would be a brave man who would bet on the outcome there. But even were the cross of the bank debt lifted, the grim spires of over generous welfare benefits and an inadequate tax base would remain to be addressed.

There has also been some progress aimed at ensuring that what happened can never recur. With the caveat that military planners prepare against the last war, this is welcome. Nothing has actually been passed into law but draft legislation on  ethics and  bankruptcy reform have appeared, hardly ideal but a big improvement on the current situation. The Financial Regulator has full government backing for his tough line and there is a sense that, slowly, the situation is being addressed. The first criminal charges have been issued against former bankers. The Courts have shown signs of a get tough policy on white collar crime and have also taken a vigorous line against individuals attempting to file for bankruptcy in Britain.

However, the small print of company and tax legislation remains to be addressed, including the distinction between a company  and the  individual (s) controlling it. The issue of taxation, residency  and citizenship also needs to be explored in a serious fashion, as well as tackling what is steadily emerging as the elephant in the room – the level of private, chiefly mortgage,  debt. This last could prove terminal.

Eighteen months in, the pressures are beginning  to mount on the government with the largest majority in the history of the state. It now has firm ownership of the ship of state and can no longer get away with blaming its predecessor. Backbenchers are getting increasingly uneasy as the months pass, the economic situation remains dire and election promises get more hollow by the day. While the economic realities were signalled well in advance of the last election, the public has limited patience and the reality has now dawned on many of those newly elected that they will be in the firing line of public displeasure next time round. The horses are definitely showing signs of fright.

Another issue all could do without, the thorny one of abortion, has re-surfaced out of left field. Abortion generates strong emotions and polarised views at any time and has had a particularly fraught recent  political history in Ireland. While there was never any prospect of an Irish legislature legalising abortion,  in the 1980s the pro-lifers sought to copper fasten matters with a constitutional referendum. The constitution now accords the foetus a right to life “with due regard to the equal right to life of the mother.” Not surprisingly this resulted in court actions and further referendums, including one in 1992 where almost 40% voted to prevent  a pregnant woman from leaving Ireland to secure an abortion elsewhere (in the wake of the infamous X case).

The issue has arisen again now because of the need for the government to comply with a ruling from the European Court of Human Rights to legislate over  the human rights of a woman (in the C case) unable to obtain  an abortion in Ireland. The war drums are beating already. Given that Fine Gael is pro-life, and Labour pro-choice, this looks interesting.

Meanwhile an  invisible mermaid is materialising, with dire potential. The pharmaceutical industry, carefully nurtured over the years, was one of the jewels in the crown of the Celtic Tiger, and one of Ireland’s  functioning  fig leafs post crash.  Its heavy hitters were patented drugs, which generated enormous revenues. Now, however, some of the major patents have begun to expire (e.g. Lipitor) with more to follow. The first half of 2012 has seen  a sharp drop of 30% in pharmaceutical exports to the USA ; when the patents expire in Europe further falls are anticipated. Long flagged, now that the moment has arrived the reality is disturbing.  Unless there are fresh patents, the prospects for the pharmaceutical sector look uncertain. This is a bell weather issue ( involving exports worth billions) which the government cannot afford to ignore.

DOING OUR BIT TO SAVE THE EARTH

Ireland is set to measure the carbon footprint not just of its people but of its cattle! No, the silly season has not arrived .  Another new contract  for Irish Beef destined for McDonalds was announced recently. Currently 20% of Big Macs consumed in Europe are made with Irish beef and new contracts and new investment promise to increase this proportion. Which is very good news for the Irish beef industry.

In welcoming this, the Agriculture Minister proclaimed a world first for Ireland – plans to identify not only the individual animal the beef came from, but also to detail the carbon footprint of the animal, i.e. how much its methane emissions amount to annually!  All this as part of the drive to make Irish beef more attractive to environmentally conscious consumers,  conserve energy, and reduce Ireland’s carbon footprint.

Irish agriculture has escaped much of the recession and  food and food related products are booming. Ireland is the fourth largest net exporter of beef in the world and half of the cream liqueurs sold in the world are made here. A concerted drive is under way to stress the quality and healthy nature of food produced in Ireland. The export potential, particularly in markets such as China, is immense. There are plans to expand beef and milk production,  to be done in a sustainable way, in order to meet the separate targets set for energy saving and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

It’s worth looking at this at a time when we have had a few recent reminders that  we are a small country trying to survive and make an impact. The Eurocrisis continues to unfold, but now there is talk of some significant relief on our banking debt, which will be achieved by clinging to the coattails of a much bigger country, Spain. However it is achieved it will be welcome, though given our structural deficit it will not be a case of “with one bound our hero was free.” In sport also our soccer team, of whom much had been expected,  performed abysmally at the European Championships, clocking up the worst results ever by  a qualifier, while our rugby team (expectations ditto) suffered a crushing whitewash in New Zealand.

Jokes apart,  the largest single component of our greenhouse gas emissions is agriculture, which accounts for 30% of the total, followed by energy at 22% and transport at 19%. Irish industry is relatively clean at 15%. Hence the concentration on cleaning up agriculture and the carbon footprint of cattle.  However, overall, Ireland continues to perform poorly in terms of its international commitments under the Kyoto agreement and  the environment lobby has for years been beating up on the Government over this. There have been recent signs that the figures are moving in the right direction, but this is  chiefly because of the domestic recession.

And there is one of the rubs. During the years of the Celtic Tiger greenhouse emissions rose sharply as the economy boomed. We are now striving to restore economic growth, the mantra for solving unemployment and restoring prosperity. This  will almost inevitably generate more pollution and more greenhouse gases. Sustainable development, the other mantra of most of the first world, is a longer term project and, in Ireland’s case, could well  involve higher costs, thus inhibiting growth  by overpricing our exports. It’s not an easy place to be, particularly since Irish energy costs are already among the highest in Europe and there is much local resistance to proposals for sustainable energy projects such as wind farms. There is also the unpalatable truth that if, for example, Ireland was to reduce the size of its dairy herd in order to reduce its carbon footprint, any slack or gap in the market would be filled rapidly by Latin American and other producers.

Should Ireland be making the effort? We are, after all a very small player on the world scene.  Ireland is currently No. 66 in the league table of carbon footprint emissions, with  43,604,000 metric tonnes released in 2008, 0.14% of the world total. China led the way with over 7 thousand million tonnes released, 160 times the Irish total and 23.33% of the world total. The USA was second, with almost 5.5 billion tonnes (18%). India and Russia, the next two countries were some way behind, each contributing  over 5% of the world total. The total emissions from all 27 EU states came to 14% of the global total, less than the USA alone.

By 2010 China’s emissions had increased by 14% to almost 8.25 billion tonnes, India’s by  18.7% to pass the two billion mark,  the USA and Russia had remained roughly the same. The increase in China’s emissions  was greater than  Ireland’s total emissions would amount to over 20 years. The complicating factor is, of course, the per capita figure, with Chinese CO2 emissions less than 5 tons per capita, India’s less than 2 tons, the USA over  19 tons and Australia over 20.

Although Ireland’s emissions per capita have been declining since 2001, Ireland still had the second highest level in the EU in 2009 with 13.8 tons, second only  to Luxembourg (which has a slightly artificial figure) and well above the EU average of 9.2 tons. There is definitely scope for action.

The whole issue of climate change has become something of a political football. I’ve always regarded it as a no brainer. The rapid industrialisation of countries like China and India, as well as the second echelon of developing nations, are generating man made pollutants on a scale never encountered before. Parking for a moment fanciful (and unprovable) notions that the Earth can take it or that what is occurring is just part of a natural cycle of climate change of indeterminate length and intensity, it is at least prudent to sit down and work out a strategy for  dealing with a possible worst case scenario. The Hole in the Ozone Layer should have been a warning tap on the shoulder.

There is no doubt that global action is needed on the environment, and quickly. Yet the recent failure of the Rio + 20 Conference to produce anything more than a non-binding declaration shows how difficult it is to achieve concrete results internationally . It’s not hard to suggest a reason. Whatever pronouncements their leaders make,  populations in the developing world  want essentially what  their counterparts in the developed world have – a higher standard of living; and who can blame them.  Those counterparts  are loathe to cut back significantly to make space, and have politicians finely tuned to respond. The result is more pollution and a succession of international talking shops that get nowhere.

This is not an area where Ireland  of itself can make a material difference. But it is one where we can make a moral point,  perhaps begin setting an example, even become proactive in working for effective international action. I have pointed out previously the false premises behind much of our whinging. We are among the world’s fortunate. We have no historical baggage. This is an issue which could potentially affect all mankind. Ireland’s stance should be unequivocal.

PIGS, TURKEYS AND THE
EURO

At least the Irish turkeys (with the exception of one sub-set)
did not vote for Christmas. In the end the
referendum on the Fiscal Treaty passed comfortably. The outcome can best be
described as prompted by enlightened self-interest. The campaign was singularly
uninspiring, with much heat being generated over our sovereign right to borrow,
as if borrowing is a virtue.

Ireland continues to stagger along,
borrowing $400 million per week just to keep the country functioning. As long as
the electorate, and through them the politicians, are unwilling to cut the
welfare benefits we have chosen to pay ourselves, and to cut numbers and
services in the public sector rather than the wages we pay, the country will
have to go on borrowing, the debt will mount up and the interest payable on it
will continue to rise.

This is the reality. The Fiscal Treaty offers the
prospect of securing future funding at advantageous rates when our current
monetary life support system ceases with the end of the Troika supervised deal
after 2013. The brave talk is that Ireland will then “be able to re-enter the
markets.” One commentator has wryly observed that this means, in effect, that we
will leave our own friendly credit union and go to the moneylender down the
street. The moneylenders (sorry, the markets) were unwilling to lend to us in
November 2010, hence the Troika bailout.

There
is every possibility, even likelihood that a second bailout will be necessary,
and in any event who can guess where Ireland, or the Euro, will be by 2014. The
importance of the yes vote was that we did not shut the door prematurely on a
potential source of future cheap money and the treaty’s opponents were unable to
address that point. Indignant whinges about bullying and lost sovereignty cut
little ice in a situation where we are obliged to borrow. Until the books are
balanced this will continue to be the case.

The sub-set that bucked the
trend was the urban working class vote, which appears to have voted no in
considerable numbers. This has been interpreted as marking a growing
polarisation of the Irish electorate along class lines. Perhaps, though it might
simply be a sense of disenchantment among some who voted Labour last year,
contrasting its strong stance during the election campaign with its performance
in government since.

They would be well advised to reflect on Labour’s
position as very much the junior coalition partner, even before considering the
external economic situation the country faces. They should also reflect on the
illogicality of voting in a way which, if successful, would have quickly led to
some really savage welfare cuts. The country raises income sufficient for eight
months and must borrow for the other four. Does anyone seriously think the gap
can be bridged just by soaking the rich; what rich? Arguing that a no vote was a
vote “against austerity” was simply delusional.

If the government
reaction was one of relief at the outcome, Sinn Fein’s glee was evident. Some
polls suggest it is now the second most popular party in the state. Its campaign
for rejection was a mixture of bombastic chauvinism, with talks of wielding
vetoes against Europe, and populist left wing proposals for higher taxes on the
better off and salary cuts for higher paid public servants. Somewhat
inconsistently it also asserted that our “gallant allies in Europe” would
continue to fund us should we vote no.

Given that we are still very
much engaged fiscally in a work in progress, with at least two harsh budgets and
more pain to come, there is every prospect for Sinn Fein to consolidate its
position further at the expense of Labour and perhaps Fianna Fail.  It now has
the working class Labour vote clearly in its sights. It will be interesting to
see how Labour behaves over the required cuts in the next
budget.

Developments on the larger European stage just might throw Labour
a lifeline, though it has to be re-emphasised that even if all Ireland’s debt
(over 70% of which is due to our own spending excesses and has nothing to do
with the banks) were to disappear magically overnight, we would still have to
borrow to pay next week’s welfare payments. We can at least be upfront about our
record of compliance with the Troika programme to date and can now point to the
positive referendum outcome.

The flavour of the month in Eurospeak terms
is the notion of an economic stimulus package (writ small, a similar notion was
touted by Sinn Fein, but ran aground on the practicality of finding funding;
more borrowing?). Hollande, the new French (socialist) president has even
proposed tying French ratification of the Fiscal Treaty to getting some such
package tacked on to the treaty. I suggested last time that some Potemkin
village-style construct might be fabricated to satisfy him and others who
believe that economic growth and recovery can be generated easily. And, indeed,
the whole Fiscal Treaty can be regarded, somewhat similarly as a Potemkin
exercise to mollify the German electorate. Does anyone seriously see the small
print of the treaty being implemented?

But right now the priority is to
address the situation in the PIGS, whatever waffle there may be about growth. I
write before the second Greek election, which may prove a tipping point. All the
PIGS have now received bailouts, the latest being Spain whose banks are shaping
up to be the Irish situation writ larger. Spain has been described as too big to
fail. A bailout has been agreed as I write, but, based on past performance,
there is considerable doubt whether the action taken will be sufficient or
timely enough to provide a lasting solution. The pious hope here is that in some
way a lasting solution involving a greater role for the European Central Bank
would have positive implications for revisiting Ireland’s banking debt, still
leaving us, however, with the other 70%.

Looking at the broader picture,
the slow emergence of a European super state built around Germany, about which I
wrote two years ago, continues apace. Arguably grappling with the current fiscal
crisis is giving impetus to the process.  Already remedies and proposals for
solutions unthinkable two years ago are now firmly on the table, though sorting
them out and finding the correct balance may take some time. Ultimately some
variant on the Alexander Hamilton solution of a fiscal union seems the likely
eventual outcome, always allowing for the quirks of the democratic process. But
Germany must step up to this particular plate.

Though little remarked
upon, Britain breaking ranks late last year may come to be seen as a very
significant landmark. Once the straightjacket of unanimity was removed progress
has been swift – at least in European terms. The Fiscal Treaty was drafted
rapidly and outside the existing Treaty structures so that no country could
wield a veto or delay matters. On past form it is highly likely that several
future agreements and modifications will be necessary before the Euro crisis is
finally resolved. Expect them to be also drafted in a way that precludes any
national veto.

EMMET LARKIN et al

By the time you read this the latest Irish episode in the ongoing Euro saga will have taken place – the referendum on May 31 on the European Stability Treaty. More about that later.

But first I must acknowledge the sad  passing of Emmet Larkin, whose memorial service at the University of Chicago was the day before Ireland voted. With Emmet’s death, Chicago, Ireland and Irish America has lost a great character and friend.

Emmet Larkin came to the University of Chicago in 1966, where he was Professor of British and Irish History until his retirement in 2006. Together with his friend Professor Larry McCaffrey, he was a seminal figure in promoting Irish studies in the USA through the American Conference for Irish Studies, which they founded in 1960.

Irish studies in the USA are now booming, due in no small part to the ACIS and its founders and Emmet’s role should not be forgotten. It should not be forgotten either that it was the same year,1960,  that the first Irish Catholic was elected U.S. President and that the huge Irish American community took its rightful place in American life.

Emmet’s academic speciality was the Catholic Church in 19^th Century Ireland of which he had a deep and erudite understanding, expressed in many books. It is interesting, at a time when the Irish Church is embattled, to recall his friend, Larry McCaffrey’s summation of Emmet’s conclusions on its role and influence in post-Famine Ireland:  the Church“provided an impoverished and oppressed people with consolation, hope, discipline, and cultural and national identity. It also has offered them social, medical and educational services when the state was indifferent to their poverty and ignorance.” Amen to that.

I recall discussing the Great Famine with him in the context of historical revisionism. One observation he made has stayed with me. “ It would not have been allowed to happen in Surrey, or any other part of England.” I first met Emmet in 1973, and last saw him, together with my wife, when we were his guests for  Thanksgiving 2006. My sincere condolences go to his widow, Dianne, and his family.

Back to the Referendum.  Up to early May the issue and the outcome seemed fairly clear. Rejection would paint us out of the certainty of being able to avail of cheap loans from an enhanced bailout fund should more borrowing, i.e. a second bailout, become necessary. The quid pro quo was to tie us into future budgetary constraints. Furthermore rejection would not hold up the treaty: we would be left behind the other Euro member states.

As I mentioned in an earlier column, many have seen the whole treaty as little more than a Potemkin exercise designed to allay the fears of German voters and as contributing little to any overall long term solution to the Euro crisis– another example of a political remedy for an economic problem. We seem now to be steaming towards another Potemkin add-on with an attempt by the heavy hitters among Europe’s politicians to head off popular dissatisfaction  with tough economic measures by tacking on some form of economic stimulus package to the treaty; it is being put together as I write.

The Government  made a judgement call,  “bravely “in my view, (as Yes Minister would put it) to hold the referendum early rather than late. This despite the flak they were getting over the modest  household charge of around $130 per annum. Registration and payments are currently running at around 57%, indicating massive non –compliance.  A near fiasco over the details  of the latest planned stealth tax – water charges – did not improve the public mood. A cynic would suggest that, since there is worse to come – the small print of the pending property tax, for example – it was better to try to get the referendum over with early.

The polls up to now show  a solid majority in favour of the treaty, less because of the efforts of the Yes side, than because the No side were unable to provide any reasonable suggestion of where the $400 million a week needed to run the country would come from were Ireland to vote No. Sloganizing from the Left about increased and new taxes on the rich sounded hollow, if only because, even if they worked, the time delay to net an effective yield would involve a serious period of real privation and hardship which the ordinary punters would not stomach. The second No argument – that ultimately “our gallant allies in Europe” would not see us short, while perhaps containing an element of truth, was not something to bet the house on.

Recent developments elsewhere in Europe  have served to muddy the waters to some extent though not, on the face of it, to affect seriously the referendum outcome, at least according to the latest polls. France has elected a Socialist president, who has spent the time since his election rowing back on his earlier campaign stances. The last one, in 1983, was forced to abandon the free spending policies which got him elected and implement a sharp “austerity turn”. Plus ca change?

The Dutch government has shipped water and  a cobbled together temporary coalition is casting around for politically palatable budgetary measures. Even in Germany the latest regional elections have seen reverses for the government. And in Spain, the fourth of the big four Eurozone countries, the banking and unemployment situations are moving to critical.

It’s fairly clear that ordinary citizens in Europe are exasperated and  frustrated that the decades of rising living standards are over for now at least and virtually every government has taken a pasting at the polls since 2008 (the only exception being Estonia). But at the margin, among the PIGS, the issue of how to manage a fiscal crisis rather  than a mere annoyance has immediate relevance. Ireland is in a bail-out situation, and thus far is handling it without fuss or real hardship (belt tightening does not constitute hardship!).

It is hardly surprising therefore that the principle that seems to work with the Irish voter at referendum time, “When in doubt vote No” appears on this occasion to be working in favour of the Yes side. While the treaty is not exactly palatable, rejection without a clear visible alternative seems just too risky. The hard won progress of the last three years is not for discarding easily. Again, the spectacle of Greece continues to concentrate minds. The Greek voters  decisively rejected its bail – out deal and the country is currently in political crisis and eyeball-to eyeball  with its paymasters in Germany.

While the economic stimulus package proposal has potentially handed the No lobby another weapon by casting doubt on the wisdom of the May vote, of itself it should not suffice to defeat the treaty. A far greater threat would be  the perception that the contest was won, with a consequent low turnout on the Yes side. This was what happened at Nice One.

Whatever the vote in Ireland, or the eventual  outcome in Greece, the Eurozone is lurching again, hopefully in a forward direction. The pieces may be on the table, but putting the jigsaw together will not be done overnight.

THE GREYING OF THE GREEN

Detailed data from last year’s census is now starting to emerge. It makes fascinating reading, revealing  a country with a vibrant growing population despite the economic downturn and the re-emergence of emigration.  It highlights the effects of recent inward migration (on which I have written previously) and also traces the (very )gradual greying of the Irish population. Those interested further should consult either of the two Irish websites cso.ie or airo.ie.

The population of  the 26 Counties is now officially  4,588,252, the highest for 150 years. It has risen by over 25% since 1996 (five times the rate of the rest of the EU) and there is as yet no sign of a slowdown; indeed there has been a 7.6% increase since 2006, despite our economic woes. Moreover, most of this latest  increase is due to the number of births since 2006, which at 365,000, far exceeds the number of deaths, 141,000. The latest data paints a complicated picture, containing several elements. Apologies for what follows; perhaps Mark Twain was right!

Firstly migration, which has, not surprisingly, been the focus of a lot of attention. Non-nationals at 544,000 now account for 12% of the population. And it’s now official. Poles are Ireland’s largest national minority, at 122,600, more than the British. The number has increased by 94 % since 2006, with the number of women increasing by 142% and Polish born children by 300% to 14,000. These figures exclude 10,000 children born here to Poles. The next two largest communities are from the Baltic republics of Lithuania (36,683)  and Latvia (20,593), both up by 50%. The number of Romanians, at 17,304, has increased by 124%, and seems set to increase further, given that Romanians will only get unrestricted entry after January 2014. The Indian community now numbers 17,000, having doubled in five years..

Elsewhere, the number of Brazilians recorded was 8700, up 100%, while the figure for people from Mauritius, at 2844 was up by 344% ! (Interestingly the flow of arrivals from Mauritius has dried up since a visa requirement was introduced in January 2011, while the numbers arriving from Brazil continue to increase.) Nigerians remain by far the largest African community, up 8 % at 17,600, in a total of 41,642, while the number of Filipinos, at 12,791 (34% higher) now exceeds the number of resident Chinese in a declared Asian figure of 65,579. The figure for US citizens, at 11,015, is down by 11.7%. The number of Travellers, at 29,573, is up 32%, though this figure is already being disputed as an underestimate by Traveller groups.

Does this mean Ireland is now a fully-fledged multi-ethnic, multi-cultural society? You be the judge. Nine out of ten of the population are Irish, while the number of persons declaring themselves Catholics, at 84%,  has actually risen by 5% or 180,000, at a time when the number of regular mass goers is in decline. The increase in the number of Catholics is probably down to a combination of immigration (the staunchly Catholic Poles and Lithuanians in particular) and a growing  identification among many Irish with Catholicism  for cultural as much as religious reasons.

The number of Muslims has risen by 51% to 49,204, in total just over 1% of the population, but this represents only an extra 17,000 people in five years, about the same as the combined increase in “Other Christian “ and “Pentacostal” numbers. This is less than the increase in Orthodox Christians, up by 24,425, or 117%, to 45,223. Most other religions are also up significantly with the exception of Methodists, who have shown a sharp fall in numbers from over 12,000 to under 7,000. The numbers declaring no religion have risen by 45% to 270,000.

The shift in the cause of the population increase since 2006 has been dramatic. Between 2002 and 2006 net immigration accounted for two-thirds of the rise. The next five years have seen an almost exact reversal, with natural increase now supplying two thirds of the growth. The  Irish fertility rate has remained constant at 2.1% throughout the last decade – one of the highest in Europe – but the numbers of women of child bearing age have increased, and births since 2006 have totalled 365,000, a healthy average annual 73,000.The upward trend in population seems set to continue with Ireland’s national average age, at 36.1,  among the lowest in Europe. Moreover, despite the recession, while emigration has resumed, immigration has not stopped; in the year to April 2011 20,000 Irish nationals and 34,000 non-nationals relocated to Ireland.

It’s now possible to get some perspective also on the changing, gently greying, age profile of the Irish population over the last generation or so.  The population (and arguably the country)  hit a low in 1961 of 2,818,341. This included 877,000 under 15 years, around 30%, but only 392,000 between 15 and 25, and 315,000 over the age of 65, around 11%,  reflecting at once the large sizes of Irish families, the massive emigration of young adults up to 1960, and the effects of emigration and unhealthy lifestyles on life expectancy among the older sections of the population. This phenomenon, the very young comprising a large percentage of the population and the old a very much smaller one, was almost unique in Europe, and has taken half a century to change significantly.

The number of those under 15 peaked in 1981 at 1,043,729,  still around 30% of a population which had risen 22% in 20 years to 3,443,405, while  the figure for over 65s, though up to 368,954, remained stubbornly low at 11%,  as the effects of earlier emigration continued to work through the system.  Even in 1996, while the numbers over 65 had risen to 413,882, this still represented only just over 11% of a total population of 3,626,087. Here, however, the numbers under 15 had fallen to 859,424, under 24% of the total, representing some emigration but also heralding significant social change, with a marked rise in the status of women, increased availability of contraception and a shift to smaller families. The 2011 figures show this trend continuing, with 979,590 aged under 15, now down to 21.34% of the total.

On the face of it, the number of over 65s, while now up to 535,393, still seems modest enough at 11.67%. The trend towards greyness only becomes apparent when the figures for the preceding age group, 45-64, are also examined. There are now 1,042,879 in this category, up from  590,402 in 1981, but representing a percentage rise from 17 to almost 23% of the total. As these age, so the percentage of the over 65s will rise in tandem, bringing Ireland more into line with other European countries.

Further reports are to appear in the coming months, covering, inter alia, in greater detail, population distribution, housing, employment, health, cultural and religious diversity. These are important and will form the information base for the government’s strategic planning in areas such as education, health care and provision for the elderly. Right now the current data offers, notably, a positive snapshot of Ireland and her people as a timely counterweight to the prevailing climate of negativity.

SILVER LININGS

One of Ireland’s leading left wing politicians  expressed bemusement recently as to why the Irish were not out in the street protesting, like the Greeks. I pointed to a possible reason last time. Remember  Sherlock Holmes and the dog that, recognising his master, didn’t bark in the night?.

The answer to the question is that Ireland – and the Irish – are still pretty well off. Partly this is artificial – we are still borrowing way beyond our means to fund  generous welfare benefits. But beyond that, the impact of the cuts and austerity measures which began four years ago have been nothing compared to the effect of those introduced in Greece. Moreover, despite the erosion of the tax base, enough of it remains and the culture is by and large one of tax compliance, so our fiscal position, though not good, has stabilised.

Despite some cuts,  Ireland’s complicated web of interlinked welfare payments has scarcely been touched, so people still have (some) money in their pockets. The absence of social discord has been helped, in effect, by the relatively large transfers from the moderately well off to the slightly worse off, cemented and enhanced during the tiger years, howls from the left notwithstanding.

Indeed the Irish Left is casting around for an issue that might ignite and is currently pinning its hopes on the attempt to introduce a property tax. Reflect on this one: the Left, advocates of greater social equality,  is mounting a campaign against a pretty modest property tax, beginning (year one) at $130! How this highly unpopular and emotive issue unfolds will be fascinating.

While there is certainly little discernible objective improvement  in our economic circumstances, as the government enters its second year in office, the general mood appears to be slightly more upbeat. This could simply be because there is a feeling that at least now there is a government, in contrast to the final year of  its shell-shocked predecessor! Also that, for most, the situation has not panned out quite as badly  as feared. This also despite the fact that there IS to be a referendum  on the Fiscal Compact treaty this year, date not yet known – a prospect normally regarded with foreboding.

Events elsewhere may also have played a part. Certainly watching Greece seems to have proved cathartic. Events in Libya and Syria may also have helped, reminding us Irish that we have things to be thankful about. We live in a democracy; we can, and have, changed our government without upheaval and bloodshed. We have had an uninterrupted democratic system of government since the 1920s.

The verdict on the government’s first year is broadly neutral. To adapt a Bertie Ahern election slogan: “A start made; much more to be done”. Promises were made, but  only the most disingenuous expected them to be carried out once the new government was mugged by the reality of having to govern. On some things the government has pleaded for more time; as time passes it will be watched closely on these for specific performance. Should there  be some deal on our scheduled debt repayments (the promissory notes), which as I write is starting to appear likely, but which requires good will from our creditors, the government will benefit from the public’s all-round feeling of relief.

The domestic  economy , though flat, is not getting any worse and job creation, in the form of FDI, continues at an encouraging rate. It may not be enough to dent the unemployment figures, the legacy of the expansion of the workforce during the tiger years, with structural unemployment seemingly destined to be with us for years to come. But again, it’s not as bad as Greece, or Spain. And exports are booming, not just the pharmaceuticals and hi-tech, but also from the  agricultural sector.

The government’s jobs initiatives can be taken with a shovel of salt, but there has been some progress. Steps have been taken to improve our competitiveness by cutting costs, despite hiking back up the minimum wage, and initiatives to encourage tourism seem to be working. Ireland is now good value and tourist numbers are up. There is a major push to encourage the diaspora to come and visit in 2013. There is a new focus on the BRIC countries and other new target economies.

The point also seems to be registering more and more that, over and above the bank debt, we still have, and must solve, the much larger and growing debt burden caused by the structural budget deficit. There’s clearly an aggregate effect and an aggravation of the interest burden when the bank element is factored in. Hence the importance of any deal, however small, on the promissory notes. But few seriously expect the rest of Europe and the IMF to discount or write off  the sovereign loans granted to cover our day to day spending. Watching the Greeks twist and turn has concentrated a lot of minds here.

None of the above should obscure the fact that for the many who have lost their jobs and/ or are struggling with mortgage debt and negative equity times are hard and not scheduled to get softer anytime soon. The mortgage issue in particular  has not improved one whit, with the numbers seriously in arrears or impaired now touching 15% of all mortgages. The housing market is frozen and property prices continue to fall, preventing any improvement. Whether and how this problem is resolved could well prove the defining issue for the government and next year could be the crunch.

Even on the referendum the point seems to be dawning on the public already that this one is different. There is no “loss of sovereignty issue” for the opposition to bandy about, no fantasy that we have a veto power if we don’t like it. If we vote No, the treaty will come into effect anyway once eleven other states ratify it. We will be outside its provisions, including access to the new greatly enhanced bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, with consequent implications for our future borrowing ability.

There is no telling how the referendum debate will develop. On past form other issues are likely to be dragged in, or at any rate to form the basis on which voters choose. A deal on debt would in theory greatly boost the prospects for a Yes. Who knows what arguments the No lobby will dredge up? Whatever happens, this time the gun is firmly in our own hands, pointed at our temple, and if we choose to pull the trigger the only casualty will be us.

There is a certain irony in that many commentators feel that the whole treaty is something of a Potemkin Village – a measure designed to reassure the German public that its Euro partners will be fiscally and financially prudent but actually having little practical application. Put simply it is  the latest in a line of political solutions to an economic and fiscal problem. Yet perhaps this is to do  European democracy a disservice. Above all there appears to be a steady resolve not to let the whole edifice collapse. To echo Virgil: “ Tantae molis erat Romanum condere gentum.”

ANGELS WOULD WEEP

As I write, the issue of whether Ireland will hold another referendum on Europe has yet to be decided, with battle lines being drawn. Should one prove necessary, the context will be different to previous referenda. While there is suspicion across Europe that the new  fiscal compact treaty is merely yet another European half measure – this one designed primarily to bolster German Chancellor Merkel domestically – and that the Euro crisis will continue to run, one thing IS clear. The treaty will enter into force when ratified by a certain number of Euro area member states. Ireland will not have a veto. The domestic debate promises even more heat than usual.

Meanwhile the chronic condition of the Irish body politic and its quirky social and economic  norms have been  exposed in earnest in the last few weeks. First was the mini fiasco of the New Year’s Greetings sent to 150,000 people on pensions by the Revenue Commissioners , informing them that they probably owed  more tax and that extra deductions from pensions would start immediately.

Those targeted were  the minority of people on occupational pensions who have  not previously declared their state old age pension or some other state benefit,  payments which are taxable. Some of the letters were sent erroneously, prompting an apology from the Revenue chairman for the “confusion and distress” caused.

The issue posed the classic dilemma for the Irish politician, hence the embarrassed and rather self-righteous reaction from most. Of course  everyone should be tax compliant, but we’d better not upset or distress unnecessarily the  poor pensioners. Revenue, whose statutory duty is to collect tax that is due, were castigated for insensitivity in timing ( the New Year)  and further attacked for getting it wrong in a significant minority of cases.

Revenue are not paid to be nice – if they were, the only people paying tax would be the PAYE mugs who have no option.  It would appear that most retired persons have been tax compliant, but a minority have not, with, per the Chairperson of Revenue,  a significant amount of revenue involved. Revenue’s statutory obligation was to rectify this and pursue arrears if necessary. Whatever about the timing, it is not hard to imagine the reaction from everyone already paying their taxes in full to any softly  softly approach to tax dodgers. And the Revenue will repay, usually quite swiftly, tax over-deducted.

But there is more. These letters issued less than two months after the Government said that child benefit payments could not be taxed or means-tested because the Revenue Commissioners and the Department of Social Protection files were not shared, that their computers “did not talk to each other”. It now transpires that 560,000 social welfare records with pension details were sent to Revenue’s computer system. The Revenue Commissioners were able to match up these records and come up with 115,000 or so cases where it appeared social welfare pensions had not been declared either at all or in full by the pensioner or that the pensioner’s circumstances had otherwise changed.

So at least the computers can now communicate! This should remove one of the procedural obstacles cited for not tackling child benefit payments on a rational basis and hopefully lead to early reform to concentrate payments where they are most needed.

The need to do something significant about Ireland’s overgenerous welfare payments     (because we have to borrow to sustain them) was underlined some weeks later by the curious case of “Magda”. Magda, not her real name, is a member of Ireland’s largest national minority – the Poles – and came to Ireland in 2006. She settled in Donegal, working until 2009, after which jobs dried up and she went on the dole. She was one of several Poles living in Ireland interviewed some weeks ago by a Polish newspaper.

A poor translation of the interview was used in a newspaper story here to suggest that Magda was a dole sponger who was living off the system and who sneered at Donegal. Cue the predictable outrage and an offer by a Donegal Labour Senator to pay her fare home. Cue also a rapid reaction from, inter alia, the Polish Ambassador, as well as other Poles disputing the story.

The most cogent point put was that Poles who had come to Ireland, worked and paid taxes, often at jobs the Irish would not do, and then lost their jobs in the recession, were quite entitled to claim available welfare benefits here. Indeed. Before the week was out the record had been corrected, Magda’s good name more than restored and the Senator had apologized.

Not quite end of story. Many of the figures Magda had quoted were correct, together with the disincentives for those on benefit to return to work  which she identified. Magda receives almost $360 per week from the state, made up of unemployment assistance of $250, rent of $80, and in winter, $25 towards heating. She can, and does avail of free education and training courses and, when she sets up a business, which she is planning, will continue to receive benefits for a further two years.

Magda answered her own rhetorical question that it was not worth working for the minimum wage (which is back up to $11.50 per hour). The whole episode, made public only because Magda was not Irish, has shone fresh light on what is available to all under the sheer generosity of parts of Ireland’s unsustainable welfare system.

The Magda story was still in the news when it was topped by another revelation. This was the announcement that there would be a cut in the Exceptional Needs Payments provisions in respect of amounts paid towards the cost of holy communion and confirmation expenses (dresses and suits) for persons on social welfare. Last year 14,000 claimants received over $4.5 million for these expenses, at an average of $320 each. Payments are now to be vetted thoroughly and capped at under $150.

It has emerged that last year the total bill for Exceptional Needs Payments came to  $85 million, almost all paid to social welfare recipients or those working part time. In addition to payments for children’s buggies this figure included almost $12 million paid out to 7769 applicants (who received an average of $1500) to help towards furnishing their accommodation. Here also the system is to be tightened and eligibility narrowed.

These payments are in addition to rent supplements (running at almost $700 million), back to school clothing and footwear allowances and the winter fuel allowance available to Social Welfare recipients, most of whom also qualify for free medical treatment. The net effect has been to create over the years a fairly comprehensive safety net for the unemployed. The unforeseen effect has been to disincentivise those on benefits from seeking work, and to create poverty traps for many of those working on low incomes, who are excluded from many benefits ending up less well-off working than on the dole. With, in addition, the second highest minimum wage in Europe, is it any wonder that job creation is at a low ebb and unemployment remains so stubbornly high.

Angels would surely weep, if there were angels.

TILL DEBT US DO PART

2012. The Centenary of the Titanic! Let’s hope that won’t become a metaphor for Ireland or the EU this year. The actual anniversary of the sinking is mid-April. By then  we should know some details of  the proposals to save the Euro, and even whether Ireland will need a referendum to address the issue. If yes (which is my guess – if only to satisfy public demand) then winning it  becomes the political priority  for the Government.

There are  plans already for two referenda this year, one on the future of the Seanad, another on the rights of the child. Both would be popular, including from the government’s point of view (i.e. winnable) . But neither are priorities, particularly that on the Seanad; that can wait, and no energy or resources should be put into it. The child referendum issue is important, certainly, and  if one can be held , so much the better. But if there is to be a referendum on the Euro, this must assume priority. Should the Euro collapse, or should Ireland be left behind by a no vote, the  future rights of the child will be among the least of our worries.

Parking Europe, coping with Ireland’s debts is the government’s on-going domestic priority. The end of year financial figures for 2011 are now in and make for grim reading. The good news is that tax revenue has stabilised at around €34 billion (roughly $45 billion),or about the amount raised in 2004; for reference, in 2007 it was $61  billion. The bad news, however, is that expenditure for 2011 was almost $33 billion more . Even stripping out all payments to the banks (most of them once –off), the net current deficit   only actually fell  to around $21 billion. This after five severe budgets. The day to day cost of  running  the country  was some $62 billion while interest payments on the total debt were around €7 billion. Not even Mark Twain could do much about these figures.

By the Titanic anniversary  Ireland will have borrowed a further $5 billion in 2012, just to keep the country running. This has nothing to do with the bank bailout. This is the gap (roughly $400 million every week) between what the government  raises in taxes and spends on state salaries and pensions, child benefit, unemployment assistance, lone parent allowances, creaking health and education services, old age pensions and, a growth item, interest payments on the growing national debt. Clearly something must be done. Ireland cannot continue to borrow at this rate.

The government’s strategy, like that of its shell-shocked predecessor, is not to set about reducing  spending to 2004 levels in order bring finances into balance. Politics is, after all, the art of the possible. Expectations are far higher than in 2004. And a warped sense of entitlement among the public, massaged over the years by politicians, makes reconciling income with expenditure more difficult still. Expenditure and welfare payments remain  too high for the size of the economy. The gigantic red herring of the bank bailout has warped and distracted from the reality. The definable target is to get the deficit down to a “manageable” 3%, whenever.  This involves paring away at spending, while seeking to build up the tax base, incrementally,  hoping  that an economic pickup, will increase employment and tax revenue while reducing unemployment costs.

The EU and IMF, who are supplying the $400 million per week – no one else would – have bought into this, which relies on optimistic growth assumptions about the Irish and world economies. The government  will cut what it can (i.e. what is politically palatable), increase taxes where it can (again, what is palatable), cross its fingers and hope to meet the target about half way if the economy picks up. That is a very big if. Meanwhile the total owing  will grow by $24 billion this year and, even, on the government’s own optimistic projections, will continue to grow by $18 billion in 2013 and roughly $12 billion in 2014. Interest on the total debt in 2015 will be around $12 billion. Any double dip recession worldwide will see these figures worsen.

Meeting these targets, moreover, will require a succession of severe budgets, for which read more cuts and more taxes, on top of the five we have had since 2008. Frankly the omens are not good. While the 2012 budget was passed, and the ownership of economic  policy is now firmly that of the current government, it was not without hiccup and a subsequent serious dent in the government’s popularity. The budget, not something to marvel over, has already been criticised externally for taking the easy option of front loading capital expenditure cuts, packing them into 2012, despite their direct effect on employment.

There is more. To a great extent the Labour tail seems to have wagged the Fine Gael dog. The broad brush stroke approach of benefit cuts was dodged, the anticipated rise in third level registration fees was halved, and  the threshold for paying the Universal Social Charge was hiked – three strikes for Labour.  VAT and motor tax rates were increased as the major sources of additional revenue .  Again, sops to Labour since there is no VAT on most foodstuffs, and the impact  for the most part will fall on persons with higher  incomes.

All Fine Gael could point to was holding the line on income tax rates and tax bands together with a flat rate property tax of €100 per household. This last has been greeted with howls of protest from the opposition and the government is running scared enough to have flagged its intention to introduce a graduated property tax ( those in better homes paying more) earlier than intended. Clearly there is a fear that  some Labour horses – and even some Fine Gael ones – may bolt.

Moreover, failure to grasp the big nettles of benefit cuts and public sector pay and pensions entailed many minor, politically embarrassing, and damaging cuts throughout the rest of the budget to achieve the necessary overall targets. Notable here was a proposed savage cut in payments to handicapped 16 and 17 year olds, yielding peanuts financially, and less than twice the cost of the salaries of Ministerial special advisers. The government at least had the cop-on to drop this proposal forthwith. Almost equally damaging were cuts in small grant assisted local and community projects, which, as well as being targeted at the socially disadvantaged, took people off the dole.

The next budget could be make or break. All the easy choices have been taken. On the plus side more politicians and academics have been speaking out and laying emphasis on the need to do something about the structural deficit. Hopefully this will trickle down into the public consciousness sooner rather than later, to shake the sense of entitlement. On the negative side  the dark matter of  a referendum  on the Euro lies just below the horizon. Like an iceberg . Basil Fawlty once remarked “Piece of Cake; now for the hard bit.” These sentiments may well be echoed by the government  come midsummer.

A PROBLEM FOR RTE

It has not been a good few weeks for RTE, the state-owned national television station. The station is financed by revenue from the (compulsory ) television license, currently costing around $200 annually, as well as from advertising. It is, therefore, subject to the type of public scrutiny and criticism that a purely commercial station would not. Though not without its critics, RTE TV and Radio, has, with limited resources, consistently provided programming of a high standard, even measured against the yardstick set by the next – door  BBC. In the area of news and current affairs RTE has a proud record of investigative journalism, including exposing incidences of institutionalised neglect and abuse of children in their care by some of Ireland’s religious orders as well as the separate abuse of children in the Dublin archdiocese.

This record has now suffered a serious blemish with a large (reputedly seven figure) award against it over a false allegation made in its current affairs flagship programme that an Irish missionary priest, Fr. Kevin Reynolds, had raped a minor and fathered a girl by her in Kenya. The way the whole programme was conducted and screened, on the face of it beggars belief, and several investigations, both internal and external, are under way into the whole circumstances surrounding the programme and its aftermath.

The incident has been a field day for RTE’s critics and comes just after the annual publication by RTE of the salaries paid to its top employees. This event has traditionally met with widespread public criticism but the howls have been louder than ever this year given the economic climate and the latest imminent tax increases and welfare cuts. RTE did not help itself in this regard by persisting in its curious practice of publishing top salary details two years in arrears, i.e. the latest details published are for 2009.This may have had the effect formerly of camouflaging rising salaries to deflect criticism but this is now working in reverse.

The revelation that RTE’s top four highest paid each received over €500,000 ($650,000 plus) in 2009, even though these amounts were less than in 2008, did not sit well with the public which pays them. Nor have the somewhat feeble attempts by some of the individuals themselves to justify the amounts. RTE has pointed out that most of the highest paid are on contract rather than employed as salaried staff and that their contracts are set to be negotiated down substantially as they come up for renewal. We shall see on that one; there is a school of thought that questions why a publicly funded body employing many talented people should have to hire anyone on contract, let alone pay them the amounts involved.

But pay is a minor matter compared to the defining issue for RTE in 2011 – the Reynolds Affair. The saga became public with the Primetime Investigates programme “Mission to Prey”, broadcast in May which looked at allegations of sexual abuse by Irish religious working in Africa. The last few years have been open season for attacks on the Catholic Church in Ireland. The growing secularisation of Irish society, the  decline in religious observance and an influx of immigrants from different cultures denting what had been a fairly monolithic society provided the context; the shameful revelations of the many instances of betrayal of trust by the Church the content.

The sad litany of sexual abuse by priests, of institutional physical and emotional ill-treatment and neglect of children entrusted to the care of various religious orders and the existence of unsavoury institutions such as the Magdalene laundries, have received wide media coverage in recent years. An Irish government fell in1994 over a paedophile priest.  The role of the Catholic authorities, in both Ireland and Rome, in dissembling or indeed covering up for guilty priests , did not help, was the cause of an outburst from the Taoiseach against Rome several months ago and is surely at the root of the recently announced decision to close Ireland’s embassy to the Vatican.

It was inevitable that, sooner or later, attention would turn to the remaining jewel in the crown of Irish Catholicism – the Missionary Church. During the 20^th Century and up to the present, thousands of Irish priests, brothers, nuns and lay people worked as Missionaries  worldwide. Their influence on the ground was considerable, particularly in education. Interestingly, the first great generation of Kenyan Olympic athletes were educated by Irish Christian Brothers. And, as a consequence of their experiences of abject poverty on the ground in Africa, Irish religious have founded development aid organisations (example: Concern) and been prominent in fundraising  and lobbying for increased official Irish development assistance.

The RTE programme fastened on  the “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” climate of prevalent Irish  anti-clericalism. It apparently relied on a specific anonymous allegation naming  a former  missionary, Fr. Kevin Reynolds, retired, my age, and currently parish priest of Ahascragh, Co. Galway, as the father of a Kenyan girl, whose mother had been a minor when allegedly known to Fr. Reynolds. In a classic of tabloid “journalism”,  Fr. Reynolds was confronted on camera with the allegation just after  conducting a First Communion ceremony in his parish.

He was at first bemused, then amused and then shocked as he vigorously denied the accusation. When it dawned on him that the allegation would be broadcast he protested his innocence and offered a blood test. Despite this and despite a number of exchanges between Fr. Reynolds and RTE, the programme went ahead, even including in  it reference to his offer of the paternity test.

Fr. Reynolds was stood down from his ministry. He was devastated. Imagine, if you will, as I have, the effects on him of these false charges. He sought legal support, offered on a pro bono basis. The paternity test, conducted on behalf of RTE, duly took place and proved he could not have fathered the child. The alleged victim withdrew the allegation. RTE delayed releasing the blood test results to him, though at this stage, apparently, the RTE Director General offered to resign.

Fr. Reynolds eventually had his day in court.  He won, hands down, handsomely, and with a confidential massive settlement in his favour. Here we enter the theatre of the bizarre. An RTE spokesman, asked whether  heads would roll, retorted that severed heads learned nothing. An official on-the-air apology, ordered by the Court, was gabbled on air in a near indecipherable monotone. The Director General was not available for comment. It appeared that an attempt was being made to brazen the affair out.

The public was gobsmacked. Then the reaction set in. There were questions in the Dail and on air. Enquiries were ordered, by RTE, by the Broadcasting Authority. These are on-going. Those involved in the programme have stepped aside. Fr. Reynolds has been restored to his ministry. The RTE Director General eventually went on air. The apology was repeated – this time with feeling! Yet the long term effects on him are unquantifiable and hardly something money alone can redress. There are hard questions to be answered before a justice hard earned is seen to be done.