Author: paleoutlaw

A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE

I write from Spain.

Being out of Ireland, even temporarily, offers the chance for some perspective. Spain, the fifth economy in Europe, the twelfth in the world, is in trouble. And one figure leaps out from the many: over 50% of those under twenty five are unemployed, almost 40% with a third level qualification. Moreover, what jobs there are on offer are for the most part temporary or part time.

Greece is in a worse situation. The economy is virtually a basket case with figures for youth unemployment a staggering 60 plus %. The Greek government recently shut down the State Television service overnight to save money. Both countries, incidentally, have welfare systems and benefits at the lower end of the EU scale. In Italy youth unemployment has touched 40%.

Seen from here, then, Ireland is actually doing quite well, with “only” around 30% of youth unemployed. Given the different interpretations of what constitutes “youth unemployment” it can be difficult to draw any definite conclusions, beyond the fact that these percentages are frightening. Even when the better performing European economies are included, the overall unemployment figure for those in the 15-24 age group is 22.9% – almost one in four. The figure for Ireland, of course, does not factor in emigration, the traditional safely valve, now returned with a vengeance. In the last four years an estimated 300,000 have left the country, 40% of them aged between 15 and 24.

Some other indicators show the economy here to be holding up well, given the cross of austerity it has been bearing. Irish exports have done well, despite the slowdown in the global economy and the hiccups in the pharmaceutical sector as some very lucrative patents expired. Irish business is markedly more competitive than several years ago. Employment has actually risen and the overall unemployment rate, though stuck stubbornly at around 14%, is not too far off the EU average of 12.2%, though here again the emigration effect probably flatters the figures.

Politically the targets set by the Bailout Troika have for the most part been met and the country seems on target to exit the austerity programme on schedule. This also without the wholesale dismantling of an idiosyncratic but still generous welfare system.
The welfare cuts have undoubtedly caused distress at the margins but this could have been avoided had the government not ducked some of the harder political choices. We still, remember, pay generous child benefit irrespective of means and pay the unemployed roughly $230 per week without any cut off date. And here it is worth pointing out that, in one respect at least, Ireland is not doing well. Once unemployed in Ireland it appears difficult to secure employment again. Irish long term unemployment (a minimum of twelve months) is 61% of the total – the second worst in the EU; this despite the emigration effect.

The overall European figures, which show little indication of improvement in the short term, do not augur well. How can Spain or the others in trouble generate the growth required to dent these frightening percentages (overall Spanish unemployment is 26.2%) ? Long term unemployment seems set to rise significantly over the next year in Spain, Greece and Italy unless something happens. But what? The debate on austerity in Europe is now finely balanced, with political opposition to current fiscal policies mounting, certainly among the PIGS. However there is unlikely to be any marked shift in overall policy this side of the German elections due in September. Then we shall see.

For consideration is whether the European institutions, in particular the ECB, as currently structured, are capable of effecting significant sufficient changes in policy. In the USA the Federal Reserve has engaged in quantitative easing – a euphemism for printing money – since 2009, and most commentators credit that policy with preventing a world recession morphing into a depression. The ECB has done some tinkering, and printing money, under a different name in the last two years, but remains subject to a more restrictive mandate and a political climate strongly influence by fears of inflation among the fiscal conservatives of Germany and the Netherlands.

A second consideration, not always addressed, is just where the desperately needed new employment is to be found. Time was there were export opportunities in new markets or new sectors. The Celtic Tiger offered a prime example. It was followed by a domestic building boom which reached unsustainable levels and eventually collapsed. A somewhat similar boom (and collapse) occurred in Spain. Can the boom be repeated? Certainly not for the foreseeable future in the domestic construction area. Yes, there are new emerging markets as the BRICs and the economies emerging behind them become more prosperous. However, there are now more competitors, spearheaded by China.

Early last month the EU imposed sanctions against Chinese exports of solar panels, initially for a two month period, to allow for negotiation. The EU argument, led by France and Italy, was that China, by dumping billions of euros of panels, had captured 80% of the EU market. China has threatened retaliation against European wine exports. The European hawks contend that virtually everything China produces is subsidised, either directly or through exchange rate manipulation. The European doves fear a trade war, with exports to China threatened.

Déjà vu anyone? Consider what happened to traditional industries in Europe and the USA during the sixties and after as first Japan and then Korea systematically targeted sectors. Shipbuilding, cameras, motor bikes, cars, televisions, electrical goods were among the areas to succumb.

A compromise of sorts was reached, with essentially Asian management methods and techniques accompanying increased Asian investment in Europe and the USA. European and American manufacturers found enough in new, niche or luxury markets to replace some of what was lost. Rising world prosperity, increased global demand and the information revolution meant there was enough cake to go round. Then.
It is by no means certain that this is the case any more. The comparative advantages that the EU (and the West) enjoyed, in terms of education, intellectual capital, levels of capital investment and an international trading environment skewed in its favour have all been eroded.

I remember a decade ago addressing a women’s symposium in Estonia on the subject of “Security.” Estonia was in the process of joining NATO and the European Union, and inter alia the Estonians were interested in how Ireland had managed to maintain military neutrality. In the Q and A which followed I was asked what I regarded as the biggest threat to the security of the West. In response I pointed to my silk tie: “You may not like the tie, Ladies, but the salient point is that similar ties in Europe sell for $ 30 or more; I bought this in China for $1 last year.” I suggested that, in the years to come, the willingness of those in poorer economies to produce similar goods much cheaper than us would pose a stern test for the West. That time may now be here. Where will the jobs Europe needs come from? Our moment in the sun may be past.

2011- 2016: HALFWAY THERE

The Government is now over 800 days in office and is either at or past its half-way point , with an election scheduled, at the latest, for the spring of 2016. While nothing is certain in politics, the history of Irish governments, particularly coalitions, would suggest that a full five year term is unlikely. However, this time may be different. Provided the coalition does not implode, a full or nearly full term seems in its best interests.

Only three governments have actually lasted the full five years, roughly 1800 days plus – De Valera’s administration 1938 – 1943, and the two Fianna Fail governments headed by Bertie Ahern from 1997-2007. Some other governments were terminated early, by decision of the Taoiseach – for it is his call – with De Valera, in particular, either tactically astute or just lucky by calling snap elections on three occasions and returning with enhanced majorities each time.

The fate of coalitions involving Fine Gael and Labour have been less than stellar with some collapsing after defeats in the Dail, and none securing re-election. It could be argued that the defeats in 1977 and 1987 were against the background of particularly difficult economic circumstances home and abroad, and that the opposition on both occasions, Fianna Fail, bought the elections, most extravagantly in 1977, undermining public finances for a generation through tinkering with the tax base to win votes.

What chance then for re-election on or before 2016, after the enforced austerity of the present administration, grappling with the disaster inherited from its predecessor? Blaming the last lot will not suffice for an increasingly fickle electorate, with opinion polls demonstrating one consistent trend – the high level of “ undecided “ voters. The government now “owns” the economic situation and will be judged above all on how it copes with that situation. It is also likely to be taken to task on its record in fulfilling its election manifesto, where its brave talk of reform will be scrutinised. In either scenario, hanging on offers the best chance.

The first political priority of the government has been to wriggle out from under the Troika, and chalk up that achievement. Indeed at the moment the progress made in this regard represents one of the few fig leaves proffered by Labour over the austerity measures taken to carry out the Troika’s ukase. On the present course, if government claims are to be believed, and barring something unforeseen, the Troika’s requirements will be met some time next year, whatever about the state of the economy, and Ireland will “regain its economic independence” – code for continuing to borrow to fund the state, but this time on the financial markets.

There are a lot of ifs and pious hopes in this. Last time I commented on the current woes of Labour, getting it in the neck for the necessary but unpopular measures taken to tackle the problem of the current budget deficit. How matters will pan out in the next few months remains to be seen, with a number of factors, not just economic, coming into play. First up will be the showdown with the public sector unions, where the government seems determined to hold firm on securing cuts from July in the public sector pay bill. At best there will be residual resentment, at worst some industrial unrest, including possible work stoppages.

Apart from the mortgage crisis, where the next six months will show whether the latest sticking plaster approach will work, there remains the possibility of a banana skin on the issue of Abortion, which, in Ireland as elsewhere, continues to generate strong emotions at either extreme, coupled with a more general sense of unease. While there is tacit acceptance in Ireland of abortion as a reality, in the sense that at least 90 women per week giving Irish addresses receive abortions in England, the issue of legislating for abortion domestically, in whatever limited circumstances, is a different matter.

The government is determined to legislate to regularise the constitutional position laid down in the Supreme Court decision in the X case of 1992 which provided for abortion in limited circumstances where there was a real threat to the life of the mother. The battleground is over the inclusion of the threat of suicide, with the Pro-Life lobby arguing strongly against.

As I write, there is a significant clamour for a “ free vote” on the issue, as opposed to the strict discipline of the party whip which the government is advocating. A “free vote” would, of course, leave T.D.s prey to heavy pressure from the Pro-Life lobby in particular. Fianna Fail, which has been making a recovery of sorts in the polls, has thus far stayed its hand on the issue. At the very least there will be a number of defections from Fine Gael on the issue. Could the outcome prove worse?

The next economic milestone for the government is the 2014 Budget, set to be announced on October 15. The talk heretofore has been of two more austerity budgets, for 2014 and 2015, but past half way and with the next election already in view, expect some nuancing on this. There are already hints that, following the deal on debt restructuring secured earlier in the year, and references to better than expected fiscal returns, the government will have some “flexibility” in October, with the figure of one billion euro being bandied about.

The government has been at pains to stress that first call for any spare cash will be job creation or further movement towards plugging the unsustainable level of day to day borrowing, so little relief can be expected for 2014. 2015, however, should present differently. For a start the election will be firmly in everyone’s sights, with backbenchers, already worried enough, demanding something positive to offer . To maximise its chances of getting back in the government will have to introduce some sweeteners sufficiently far in advance of any poll for their effects to be felt and to negate the imminent and pending property and water taxes.

There is another factor also. The Centenary of the 1916 Rising will be on 24 April 2016, i.e. just or close after the next election. There are already articles in the media pointing to that anniversary and posing questions as to how far the ideals of 1916 have been or will be achieved. Even allowing for hyperbole, 2016 will be a watershed, a time for taking stock, and no government will want to be criticised for shortcomings in achieving these ideals.

This “Centenary Factor” – though little talked about now – will certainly come into play in terms of the government’s plans as the date nears. On top of the natural desire to secure re-election, there will clearly be a strong desire on the part of the current incumbents to be in power to bask in whatever reflected glory the Rising Centenary generates. It would be bitter sweet indeed to have steered the country out of the economic tsunami only to see a new government strut the stage of the Centenary celebrations. Let us hope, however, that there are no extravagant promises or hostages given to fortune in the process.

THE SCORPION THE FROG AND THE SUCCESSFUL OPERATION

Political pundits here studying the current socio-political situation might consider the relevance of two stories, one a joke, one a fable. The joke is the old medical one about the operation being a success but the patient dying. The fable is the well-known one about a scorpion hitching a ride across a river from a frog. Despite giving assurances for the frog’s safely, the scorpion stings and kills the frog in midstream, dooming them both, telling the frog, “because it’s my nature.”

The current patient is the Irish Economy and its Siamese twin – the government. The operation, or rather the medical team carrying it out, is the Troika and the procedure itself the Troika Rescue Plan. As I write, the Plan is largely on target and collateral political successes within Europe on the pace and scale of Irish borrowing , with hope of more to come, have raised the prospect of an early Troika departure. But this is only part of the story.

The Troika came to Ireland in late 2010 to provide life support, i.e. cheap credit, to an economy which could no longer borrow money elsewhere to sustain itself. The price extracted from reluctant Irish politicians has been the, on paper, not unreasonable one that the country should seek to live roughly within its means, or at least get down borrowing to an annual 3% by 2015. This to be achieved by a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, within broad parameters, including the widening of the tax base.

The devil, of course, has been in the detail, aggravated by the shadows cast on Ireland’s cave wall by changing and evolving external circumstances within the Eurozone and the EU and exacerbated still further by the red herring of the bank bailout. Arguably the most relevant of these images has been the recent spectacle of the banks closure in Cyprus, something that could have been sprung on us had the infamous bank guarantee not been given in 2008. Arguably also the Eurozone is lurching slowly towards an eventual US – style system with the ECB a type of Federal Reserve, shouldering the debt burdens of member states, solving, inter alia, Ireland’s problems.

The snag with any “ with one bound our hero was free” solution is that, in the real world this does not happen overnight (we may be talking five years) and in the meantime politicians have to face angry and disillusioned electorates ( witness Greece and Italy).

Ireland is not immune to this, as the recent Meath by- election showed. It was nemesis of a sort for Labour which was beaten into fifth place, securing less than 5% of the vote. Whether the damage will be temporary or fatal remains to be seen, but with the double whammy of a property tax and water charges to come within a year, public disaffection seems likely to grow in the short term.

Certainly also Labour did not help its own cause by focussing on issues such as same sex marriage in a constituency where the electorate (as elsewhere) were concerned with jobs, the cost of living and the mortgage crisis.

As spending cuts and tax increases have been introduced there have been predictable howls from every interest group affected. Given that cuts in welfare spending are more likely to hit Labour supporters, these have proved particularly damaging for the junior government partner, Labour, which gained votes and seats in 2011 on a completely unsustainable and unrealistic election platform. Fine Gael was more realistic, promised less, vacuumed up the floating (and decisive) middle class vote, and has at least managed to hang on to its core vote and more.

Labour’s survival, and that of the government in its present form, now seem to rest on Fine Gael agreeing to raise more direct taxes from the better off in the October budget. This was resisted last time and there have been well flagged statements from Fine Gael that the direct taxation limit has been reached. With two new indirect taxes pending, which will squeeze disposable income further, as well as cuts to public sector salaries and pensions from July, most family budgets are delicately balanced, making the scope for any tax increase extremely limited in October.

By then, however, there could be preoccupation with another major issue. Long brewing, long signalled ( I wrote about it in October 2010), the Mortgage Crisis is now firmly centre stage, with 94,488 mortgages (12% of the total) now 90 days plus in arrears, including almost 20% of buy-to-let mortgages. What has changed in recent months has been that the government now at last seems seized of the issue – having managed to do deals in the macroeconomic areas – but its reaction seems to be one of sleepwalking towards potential disaster.

The main elements of the new official approach all heavily favour the banks. These involve the plugging (through legislation) of the loophole that has blocked bank repossessions, a change in the terms of the “ code of conduct” under which the banks have been obliged to conduct negotiations with those in arrears, the introduction of new insolvency legislation, reducing the period of bankruptcy from a horrendous twelve years to a still awful three years, and the “ setting of targets” by the Central Bank for the commercial banks – most of which the taxpayer owns and funds – to “solve” the problem of mortgages in arrears, beginning with the buy-to-lets, all this to be achieved over the next twelve months or so.

As I write, also, “guidelines” are being drawn up under which, in the case of those deemed hopeless debtors ( most of that 94,488), personal and family budgets for up to five years will be dictated by the banks to the debtors as quid pro quo for relief ranging from partial debt write off to “parking” the capital sum owing for a number of years.

Some elements of the guidelines have already been leaked. These include severe restrictions on all spending, including holidays, cars, consumer goods, casual entertainment, children’s education, private health insurance, satellite television, expenditure on clothes and even on food, where $7.00 per person per day is the suggested maximum. For those taking the insolvency route, i.e. accepting immediate bankruptcy, which means losing the family home, jewellery items above a certain value are among those proscribed during the three year purdah period.

This is not some gigantic leg pull. Mixing metaphors, the resuscitated and unrepentant banks, like the scorpion, are to be let off the leash to pursue those who owe them money. Those without sin in the community are quoting that odious concept of “ moral hazard” as justification for supporting/advocating a regime that is not far off some form of indentured servitude. Those potentially affected range from first time buyers through small investors to a handful of (once) well off speculators. There was no talk of “moral hazard” when the banks – and bankers – were being bailed out. Those in difficulties represent collateral damage for the national economic mismanagement spearheaded by the banks.

If this regime goes ahead along the lines currently envisaged the government would do well to remember the fate of the frog. Bankers will be bankers.

A WATERSHED DATE?

July First could prove to be a watershed for this government and for the Irish economy. At the very moment the right decisions are put into force, the government may be signing its own death sentence.

Recent opinion polls show growing disenchantment with the government’s performance. Labour in particular are taking a battering, with suggestions that a poll now would see them lose up to two third of their seats. The most striking feature of the polls, however, has been the one third undecided, for which read disenchanted with the current lot but not convinced the other lot will be any better. This loss of support was probably inevitable, given the tough measures necessary to get the job done.

The Government has attempted to talk up its recent achievement regarding the bank promissory notes after getting the nod from Euro partners to reschedule the annual payments over several decades rather than one.

Finance Minister Noonan tried to over-egg the pudding by suggesting that a repetition of the cumulative inflation of the last four decades would eliminate entirely any future burden of repayment, a scenario that is not only totally speculative but flies in the face of stated ECB – and German – policy. It didn’t matter. The opposition realised that it had lost one of its major government-beating sticks and failed to drum up indignation about the long term burden of debt. ( Cue Lord Keynes: “ In the long run, we’re dead.”)

However, while the deal can be judged a success, the issue was essentially a red herring compared to the problem of the budget deficit proper. The bank debt deal has freed the government to concentrate on this, but it is not a vote winner. The pressing need to do something on this has been exacerbated by the continued sluggish state of the Irish – and world – economy.

The gap between what we take in taxes and pay out to run the country remains dismayingly large. In the real world the gap can be bridged only by cutting expenditure and/or raising realistic taxes. The two years of the Coalition have shown how difficult it has been to do either. No solution is easy. The battle lines are now being drawn, with Sinn Fein firmly in the camp of the socialists and fellow travellers on the left with demands to bridge the gap by punitive taxes on all those earning €100,000 plus per year, with a wealth tax to boot.

Precisely who would pay the wealth tax or how it would be constituted remains a mystery. Apparently, family homes and farms would be excluded for a start, thus exempting most of the population. “ Not me” is the rallying cry for the left for whom the notion of such a tax has great appeal, with the implication that there is a great swathe of wealth out there which can be raided, saving everyone else pain.

Two new taxes are already on the cards. The property tax, commencing July First, is a big step, if fraught with political danger. A water charge is to follow sometime in 2004. The property tax payable will depend on the revenue-assessed market value of the property, something which will bear most heavily in Doblin and the east, with people living in modest houses in Dublin paying more than persons with far superior houses who live in rural areas. Both these measures, predictably, are opposed by the left.

The real impact of the property tax will not be felt until the full year kicks in 2014. There are no signs so far of the government caving in to special pleading with no nonsense about wholesale exemptions, and the Revenue Commissioners being given sweeping powers, including raiding bank accounts and attaching as necessary wages and welfare payments. With these new taxes the government has signalled that the direct taxation limit has been reached, though only time will tell on that one.

Which leaves cutting. On the welfare side child benefit has been cut again, with a trial balloon of further cuts floated. A melange of welfare and health cuts have also been announced, some quite harrowing in their impact on marginal groups, to be phased in over the year with some to impact from I July. The sacred cows of unemployment assistance (roughly $240 per week ad infinitum) and the old age pension (coming in at close to $300 per week for a single person) have been left alone, for the moment at least.

The other big component of expenditure, public sector pay and pensions was thought inviolate until next year under the Croke Park Agreement but the government has now moved to renegotiate. As I write the public sector unions are considering an offer which will be difficult to refuse, given that refusal will lead to more savage and wide ranging emergency legislation.

The package includes changes in working conditions and some allowances together with salary cuts from 5% upwards on anyone earning over €65,000 per year, i.e. middle management and up; the package again to come into effect on July First. For those affected, many of the middle class backbone of the country, July One will mean, therefore, a double whammy with pay cuts on top of the new property tax. The carrot on offer is that there will be no fresh demands until 2016 – i.e. coinciding with the next election. Again, this should perhaps be taken with a dose of Lot’s wife.

Several other issues are set to come up before July including inter alia the abortion issue which seems likely to test the mettle of the government . More ominously, as the mortgage arrears crisis continues to intensify, the government has signalled its intention of introducing legislation shortly to close off a loophole which has thus far prevented the banks from repossessing properties.

Initially the target will be those properties to let which are in arrears but miscellaneous cross guarantees suggest that, inevitably, family homes will come under threat at some point, perhaps sooner rather than later. So far the authorities have eschewed lateral thinking on the issue but at the very least the government courts more unpopularity by its apparent tough line attitude on this.

The problem the government faces overall is that much still remains to be done economically, which means more pain, piled on top of the pain already suffered, even as the countdown to the next election begins. Last year moreover it got the benefit of the doubt. This year it is being called to account on its election promises on governance. While nobody expected miracles, the record to date on issues such as public appointments and the closure of quangos is disappointing, to put it mildly, with no discernible difference from Fianna Fail’s performance.

Machiavelli prescribed taking the harsh decisions early on and some have argued that the Coalition should have been tougher at the start. Perhaps, but politics is the art of the possible and there was, after all, the fig leaf of the programme for government. Too much too soon might have frightened the horses. The trouble is, it’s now year three, and they’re taking fright in any event.

WINDOWS ON THE PAST

I wrote last time about Europe and the impact four decades of EU membership has had.

Three things recently have demonstrated just how much Ireland has changed. The first is the newly released report on the Magdalen Laundries. The other two relate to books I was asked to review, one fiction, one non-fiction.

The Magdalen Laundries were run by several Orders of Nuns throughout Ireland for most of the Twentieth Century, the last closing only in 1997. Their heyday was up to the 1970s. The laundry workers were exclusively women and girls who were housed on the premises, were unpaid and subject to a strict regime including long silences and much prayer. Originally they were intended for “ fallen women”, i.e. prostitutes or single women who became pregnant at a time when single parenting was frowned upon and many of the women ostracised, even by their own families.

Later, girls from broken homes or who were judged to be disruptive were lodged in the laundries. Considerable numbers of minors or adolescents were sent to the homes by their families. Myths abounded, particularly against the background of revelations of widespread sexual abuse by Catholic religious which surfaced in the 1980s, culminating in several reports which detailed the dreadful physical, sexual and emotional abuse meted out to children in state financed institutions and orphanages.

The Government commissioned a working group of civil servants to ascertain the level of state involvement in the laundries, including whether the state had sent girls in its care into what were in effect workhouses. Its report, still being digested as I write, though less awful than had been anticipated, exposed yet another sad aspect of Irish society in the last century.

Some (8%) had certainly been committed by the state, quite often in the belief that the laundries were a better alternative to prison, but, for most inmates, entry had been “voluntary”, prompted by family, friends, or do gooders, and they had, in theory been free to leave at any time. The problem was that no one appears to have made this clear to the women involved, and while typically the period spent at what was in effect hard labour was around seven months, many women spent years incarcerated, some becoming institutionalised, and many more emotionally scarred and unprepared for life outside.

The report is there to be read. The point to register is that the laundries could never happen in today’s Ireland. They represent yet another example of the failure of the Irish state for most of the last century, by commission or omission, to look out for some of its most vulnerable charges. Ireland was not a place for the marginalised to find state support. And, arguably, official policy (or lack of it) reflected the popular view; out of sight, out of mind- someone else’s problem.

An interesting portrait of the background to that vanished Ireland can be found in the recently released atmospheric thriller, “ City of Shadows” by Michael Russell. Set in the Dublin of the 1930s, the story opens with John McCormack singing at the 1932 Eucharistic Congress Mass in the Phoenix Park in 1932, an event widely regarded as the high point of resurgent Catholicism in 20th Century Ireland. There are particularly evocative scenes of the Dublin of the time.

The book offers fascinating insights into Irish society and the politics of the newly independent state at a time when the institutions of state were still bedding down and democracy was under threat. De Valera, Eoin O’Duffy and the Blue Shirts, the Broy Harriers, are all there, with constant reminders that the civil war was in the very recent past and that violence still lurked just below the surface.

The powerful and all pervasive influence of the Catholic Church, exercised through devices such as the Ne Temere decree and supported by the activities of its right wing civilian supporters, dominated the scene, while under the surface there was another Ireland, with a covert gay scene and cupboard skeletons of many, epitomised in an abortion clinic, fashionably located, for the rich and powerful. The book even has a visit to a Magdalen laundry.

A no less revealing screenshot of that Ireland is to be found in a very different new book, “Suddenly, While Abroad,” which traces the misfortunes of a group of Irish merchant seamen, captured by the Nazis during the early part of the Second World War when the British vessels they were sailing on were sunk. Sub-titled” Hitler’s Irish Slaves” the book narrates how and why the 32 seamen were segregated out from thousands of captive civilian sailors to be pressurised into working for the Nazis. When they stubbornly refused they were eventually handed over to the SS and sent to a concentration/labour camp near Bremen in North Germany, to be worked as slaves until the war ended.

The book does not make for easy reading. Over 50% of the 100,000 sent to the Neuengamme camps died there and the atrocities committed against the Russian, Jewish and Polish inmates, including some children sent by Mengele for experiments, are stomach churning and beggar belief. Five of the Irish died – four from typhus. The other, William Hutchinson Knox, from Dun Laoghaire, aged 59, a relative of the author, died in the Farge concentration camp in March 1945 after five years in captivity, following an operation, performed without anaesthetic, with four of his Irish comrades holding him down.

The War was a titanic struggle which saw the German war machine eventually overcome, at enormous human cost, by a coalition of most of the world powers. We know the imperfect world that emerged from it. This book, with its nightmarish accounts, offers a glimpse of what might have been had the Nazis won.

Ireland managed to stay neutral in the conflict, ultimately because she was peripheral to the war aims and interests of the combatants. This neutrality, while it definitely had a pro-allied bias, with tens of thousands of Irish serving in the British army, is now presented as the ultimate affirmation of Irish sovereignty and independence.

But one facet of it was a stultifying censorship regime, which kept most Irish in ignorance of what was happening. Post war, there were many holocaust deniers to be heard. The official line regarding army deserters, many of whom joined the British army, was to prosecute, punish financially and blacklist from future state employment many thousands under the “Starvation Order.”

Irish neutrality may not have helped the merchant seamen’s plight. It certainly led to them being singled out as a group; some Nazis believed that many Irish were anti-British and arguably took it out on the sailors when they refused to serve. They were denied consular access for a long time and efforts to repatriate them – as happened with some other “neutral” seamen – came to nothing. When the survivors returned to Ireland they were ignored and remain unrecognised. While the book is critical of Irish government inaction, there were probably practical limits to what could be achieved in dealing with a criminal regime in the throes of collapse. But again, like the Magdalens, this took place in the past – another country. It would not happen today.