Author: paleoutlaw

KNOWN KNOWNS AND UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS

It’s almost Rumsfeld territory.

The Government, battered after its annus horribilis, is trying to pick itself up and undo the damage in the year and a bit before the election. Few give it much chance. It is eight months since Labour showed in double figures, almost a year since Fine Gael got 30%.

However, the earliest opinion poll of 2015 offered some solace with slight increases in support for both Coalition partners to 24% and 8% respectively. While any recovery has a long way to go, some Fine Gael supporters are grasping at the straw that only six months before the last election their support was similarly languishing but recovered strongly. True; but then they were in opposition, not in government with a record to defend. This applies also – in spades – to Labour, who are under sustained attack from the Left over broken election promises.

Pundits argue that the unpopularity revealed in the polls has been too long in the making and cannot be reversed in the short time available, citing the difficulty of regaining the electorate’s trust once lost. Some see a post-election scenario in which three parties (FG, FF, and SF) would each have broadly similar levels of support, in the mid-twenties, with a further twenty-odd percent going to a Macedonia of independents, new parties and those of the hard left, the balance going to a Labour party rump.

Whether this or some other new political landscape will emerge remains to be seen. A year is a very long time in politics and there are different factors at play. Strategists of both government parties are fairly clear on what must be done – or avoided – to give them a reasonable chance. First there must be an act of faith – that the pendulum will swing back, not fully but just enough. Voter disenchantment can be volatile as well as enduring, particularly if there is no readily available viable alternative on offer. This probably saved the skin of several past Fianna Fail administrations. Still to be resolved is whether and to what extent the two parties will present jointly.

Second, avoid Banana Skins – or, if slipping, minimise the damage asap. The handwringing over Irish Water, the bleating defence of the indefensible over medical cards, cost the Government dearly last year. Cop outs like trying to blame a quango, or an unelected Regulator, or whinging that legislation ties the Minister’s hands, simply will not work where the public is seized of an issue. A government is elected to govern, not deliver excuses. Tough decisions may on occasion be necessary and the electorate tends to understand; wrong decisions, or no decisions, they will not.

Third, take on the opposition on the economy. The budget deficit remains huge, even factoring out interest payments on Ireland’s bailout. Borrowing continues. We are still living way beyond our means to sustain current levels of welfare and to run the state. The opposition have been coy on alternatives, beyond soaking the rich. They should be pushed on specifics.

It is not enough to point proudly to seeing off the Troika. An achievement, certainly, but one that has already been oversold. There is speculation that a new Greek government may, as threatened, reject or seek to renegotiate with the rest of Europe the terms of Greece’s economic bailout. Merely an election promise or a nuclear option? Should the Greeks secure a favourable deal by acting tough, the Government’s Troika boast would be rubbished. While Fianna Fail can be largely discounted on this, since it negotiated the Irish bailout terms, the potential boost to Sinn Fein, the hard left and independents could be considerable at the worst possible time.

Fourth, above all: Be Alert! Known knowns like Irish Water and medical cards have been identified – painfully – and attempts to cope with them put in train. This appears to have worked for the medical card issue. However the anti – water campaign is still very much alive and two significant dates are looming. The first is the early February deadline for registration, which will demonstrate whether the disaffected middle is satisfied with the government’s compromise climb-down. The second is Easter, when the first water bills issue (and shortly after the property tax has been extracted).

The government has been playing up the tax cuts from 1 January, pointing to taxpayers having more money in their pockets. These savings, however, look set to be cancelled out by the water bills, while the estimated 40% who pay no tax will feel the charges even more. The hyped €100 for registering with Irish Water won’t arrive until much later in the year. Watch this space!

There is also what could be waiting in the long grass. After years of cutting and trimming there are several potentials and it behoves the strategists to keep an ear very close to the ground – or at least to the daily radio talk shows. The plight of the homeless flared up before Christmas and there is currently the annual waiting-on-trolley scandal in hospital emergency departments, which seems worse this year. There could be legacy issues regarding past scandals – though these could affect all parties – and it will be interesting to see how the government handles the imminent report on the direct provision regime for asylum seekers. One other unknown is the extent of the rising tide of house repossessions and what effect these will have politically. On this issue the can-kicking appears to have reached a cul de sac. None of these are critical as yet.

There ARE positive factors. One which the pundits, the population and the politicians seem to have woken up simultaneously to is the spin off from the dramatic fall in oil prices. Lower prices for petrol and home heating have provided a welcome cash boost – rivalling that of the budget and with a multiplier effect. How this will play out in terms of a general feel good factor is a big unknown. Some of the benefits could be offset by the downward drift in the exchange rate of the Euro. There could also well be public ire should the lower fuel prices not be reflected in terms of cuts in electricity and gas prices. Irish consumers pay dearly for electricity in particular and a forensic examination of the feather- bedded companies is long overdue. This one is a slow burner (ouch!).

With the most recent economic trends there is some leeway to placate public opinion, by rowing back or reversing some of the austerity measures over the next year. A start has already been signalled with for example overtures on pay to the public sector. There will definitely be at least one giveaway budget and a good chance of a second. The Spring Economic Statement may prove to be more than just words if the polls remain unfavourable.

Nothing will prevent massive seat losses for the Government parties in the next Dail. Yet the strongest card it has may well prove to be the electorate’s reluctance to endorse Sinn Fein or to court the possibility of a government in thrall to a disparate group of independents. Now that WOULD be an Unknown Unknown!

22/01/15

TEA PARTY POLITICS – IRISH STYLE ?

The very latest polls suggest that in the next election the three major centre parties would be unable to muster a majority between them, while Sinn Fein’s support continues to grow, and the strongest support is for independents of various hues (chiefly left-wing).

Most worrying is that the trend in the polls evident throughout 2014 resembles the melt down in Fianna Fail’s support before 2011. One or two polls could be dismissed but not the last half dozen which have seen support for Labour collapse and support for Fine Gael also decline sharply. As I write there is nothing to suggest, beyond pious hopes, that this will change. And, where public opinion has actually been tested – in the local and European elections in mid-year and in subsequent by elections – the poll figures have been, ominously, validated.

The Government must be asking itself “Where did it all go wrong?” The most secure government in the country’s history has imploded so severely in 2014 that its chances of being returned to power seem slim.

Nobody said it would be easy – three years of unremitting austerity with tax increases and benefit cuts had severely dented the Government’s popularity. However, in the absence of any credible alternative, with the economic corner turning, and with the political kudos for successfully seeing off the Troika, 2014 promised much. Factoring in the gradual waning of mid-term unpopularity and two possibly favourable giveaway budgets before a 2016 election, the prospects last January seemed reasonably positive.

That at least was the theory. And, in the macro sense, things went according to plan. The economy bounced back big time and at a surprising pace. It appeared the Government had got it right – austerity worked. Debt targets were met, austerity seemed to be ending and there was talk of a billion to play around with in October’s budget with the promise of more to come. Twelve months on, the Government is in a shambles, with support for both coalition parties seriously degraded.

In retrospect, in political terms, the Troika Era was an extended honeymoon period for the Government. All the nasty cuts and new taxes could be blamed on the Troika and Fianna Fail, which had let them in. A type of Dunkirk spirit obtained in which the public, by and large, put up and shut up. People did not take to the streets. However, once the Troika departed, it was end of honeymoon and back to the kitchen sink.

While national bankruptcy had been averted, the country’s finances repaired, and “core” welfare benefits preserved, aspects of the cutbacks, and the scattergun approach to economising, particularly in the small print of measures taken, proved toxic. Cuts yielding little in savings emasculated many small services and programmes which helped the sick, disadvantaged and politically powerless. The monies could have been saved elsewhere by targeting some of those “core” heavy hitters through, e.g. means testing child benefit or even slightly raising income tax and blaming the Troika. It might have worked, though try explaining that to people losing out on a carer or a respite or other grant . The resulting drip feed of public disillusionment and simmering anger was not perceived officially at the time.

This was compounded by a succession of tactical and strategic blunders by the Government during 2014, culminating in the fiasco over Irish Water, an issue that rumbled on throughout the year before coming to a head in November. The blunders had a cumulative effect. Just about every issue and crisis during the year was mishandled, exploding the myth of government competence.

Early on a furore over the level of salaries paid to the top executives of some state funded charities brought down Fine Gael’s ablest political strategist Frank Flannery .The Garda Whistle-blower controversy, complemented by allegations of bugging the Garda Ombudsman’s office, morphed into a major crisis that saw the removal of the Justice Minister, his Department’s top official, and the Garda Commissioner.

Soon after, an obvious populist proposal to give free GP care to the under sixes ran foul of public outrage at a parallel attempt to save money by reviewing – and withdrawing – thousands of discretionary medical cards issued to genuinely sick people. The official protestation that the under-sixes proposal was the first stage of a roll out of universal free GP access fooled no one, with medical experts pointing out that this was to prioritise the healthiest ahead of those in greater medical need. The medical card fiasco was in part responsible for the Government’s lamentable showing in the mid-year elections, which prompted the resignation of Labour leader Gilmore and the kicking sideways of accident prone Health Minister Reilly.

An attempt to relaunch the Government’s Programme in July briefly held promise, with Ministers talking up the state of the economy and generating expectations of a giveaway October budget. In the event they oversold, with the budget’s modest provisions satisfying nobody. But even before that the Government’s credibility was further shredded by the McNulty Affair in which the Fine Gael candidate for a Senate vacancy lost after revelations that he had been nominated to a state board at the last minute in order to boost his election credentials. Small potatoes stuff but many saw it as the type of stroke politics and political sleaze associated with Fianna Fail.

Next came the revelation that the junior Environment Minister was employing, as his driver, a fellow party member who was also a government appointed director of the new Irish Water quango. Stroke politics with a vengeance. A hasty Government announcement of a new system ( a “portal”) governing public appointments to state boards – long a traditional form of patronage for rewarding loyal supporters – was greeted with derision.

Cue Irish Water – a slow burner. The Troika proposed in 2010 that Ireland join the rest of her EU partners ( and help bridge the budget deficit) by charging for water. Fianna Fail, outgoing, had bought into this, and the new Government did likewise. A simple flat-rate charge would have sufficed while all aspects of the matter were examined, the issue complicated by the legacy factor – the existing infrastructure is inadequate, antique (some pipes date from the Nineteenth Century) and defective (with up to 40% of water lost through leakage).

In a catastrophic political misjudgement Irish Water was established, with start-up costs of several hundred million dollars, much of this for consultants, an acknowledged level of over manning from the start and with some contractual systems locked into place until 2027. Public anger was compounded by the revelation of a bonus culture in salaries, including those underperforming. When the likely hefty scale of the charges became known, the issue boiled over. Street protests culminated in a massive demonstration by over 100, 000 in November. The left had a field day.

The issue became a lightning rod for discontent, with the middle classes joining in. The Government blustered, then caved in, slashing and deferring the proposed charges. Those opposed remain adamant. Right now the Government is hunkering down and keeping fingers crossed but such is the degree of public disenchantment that all the mainstream parties are running for cover. Is this the beginning of tea-party politics, Irish –style?

18/12/14

PAISLEY

“By their Fruits Ye shall know them; ” Matthew 7.16

Now the Month’s Mind is over, how should we regard him?

Park for a moment that late Damascus –like conversion to power sharing, that invoking of the Song of Solomon when he took over as Northern Ireland’s First Minister.

He was never short of a pithy phrase:
“Blaspheming Roman Scum” — Catholics.
“They breed like rabbits and multiply like vermin” — Irish Catholics.
“This Romish man of sin is now in Hell” — on the death of John XXIII.
“Bog People” — the Ulster Irish dispossessed in the Seventeenth century.

My personal favourite was his frequent retort to Irish reporters asking a difficult question – “Let me smell your breath.”

Time Magazine once described him as an Elmer Gantry style figure. Yet Paisley was much more than a glib shyster spouting the bible at ignorant US plebs. He was a towering figure in Twentieth Century Irish history, one who played a major part in what we still refer to as “The Troubles.” And he had support – right to the end he was Northern Ireland’s greatest vote getter.

He fused Religion and Politics in a way rarely seen in modern times. When he first emerged, we did not take him seriously. A Neanderthal using phrases and language not heard – or widely believed – since Cromwell. There’s a moral here. Listen carefully to what people are saying – everyone from Hitler to Bin Laden – and ignore at your peril!

He came to attention initially in 1959 when he threw the Bible he professed to espouse at Donald Soper, a Methodist minister who doubted its literal truth. But it was Catholics at whom he directed his special ire. The Pope – any Pope – was the Whore of Babylon, or Antichrist, whatever that means. He picketed the Second Vatican Council. He picketed and disrupted ecumenical services in Britain. His shouting figure, surrounded – usually – by a posse of placard waving louts, some wearing clerical collars, became a familiar figure on our televisions in the 1960s.

He was superb at hurling biblical quotes at his opponents, drawing inspiration from the King James’ Bible. The Jacobean scholars who crafted this literary masterpiece have much to answer for. Would – could – Paisley and legions of pulpit thumping bigots over the ages have achieved the same effect with the anaemic New English or Douai versions?

He was, of course, more than just a bible spouting bigot. He was a brilliant demagogue. While much material has been lost, look at his Drumcree speech in 1995 on You Tube, or the fragments that survive from the 60s. Oswald Mosley and Enoch Powell have been described as accomplished mob orators. They simply weren’t in Paisley’s class. Hitler’s rants – from the newsreels – come closest. And Paisley shared with Hitler the ability to turn minds with his words, albeit – thankfully – on a much smaller stage.

He was a towering, intimidating, aggressive figure, burly and well over six foot at a time when most people were not. His bellow added to the charisma, for he was the shouter – downer par excellence. I never witnessed him bested, even when thrown out of meetings or events. Yet he could be personable and charming when he wanted, as he was when I encountered him a quarter of a century ago.

At some time in the fateful decade of the Sixties, while ranting at Catholicism, he focussed on politics – perhaps always his intention. His targets expanded to embrace Irish republicanism, whether in the imagined menace from the Republic or in the discriminated minority of Irish nationalists – Catholic to boot – within the North. He was on surer ground here.
For if most of his listeners deep down had scant regard for the hellfire in the afterlife he raged about, many were worried, and indeed fearful, of the country to the South, less prosperous, with its revanchist constitutional claim, and its Catholic Church-dominated society . They were equally apprehensive of the nationalist minority living among them and were conscious also of their own minority status on the island as a whole and the dubious political settlement that had gifted them their position.

“We will never forsake the blue skies of Ulster for the grey mists of an Irish Republic.” Paisley tapped into these fears, exploited them, painting the issues as zero sum and opposing every concession or reasonable attempt at compromise. He told Bernadette Devlin in 1968 he would rather be Protestant than just. He spent four decades holding fast to that tenet. He provoked serious rioting in 1964 over the display of a tricolour during elections in Belfast. He opposed and picketed meetings between the political leaders on the island. When the Civil Rights movement got under way in 1968 he organised violent counter-demonstrations.

Even as people began to be murdered in large numbers he had a Teflon-like quality for evading direct responsibility. Yet few doubted where he stood. I recall the numerous crude graffiti in Belfast in those early days “UVF – Rev. Ian” and the more pointed one in a nationalist area that threatened vengeance. Yeats in a late poem pondered whether his play had sent “out certain men the English shot.” Paisley, though never directly fingered for involvement, with his superb demagogy and his gift for harnessing and igniting quiescent fears, as many loyalist paramilitaries have testified, provided support and sustenance for their actions.

When political settlement seemed possible, wrecking became his forte. In 1969 he destroyed a decent Prime Minister, derailing a reform process that could have prevented the awful decades that followed. In 1974, when calm was needed, he was to the fore in wrecking the Sunningdale power-sharing agreement. Any Unionist politician advocating compromise was outflanked by Paisley, his career destroyed. He opposed the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement (“ Never, Never, Never.”). A decade later, when the ceasefires were in effect, he did his best to fan the flames yet again at Drumcree.

Then, the sea change. Paisley was the last man standing, every rival Unionist politician routed, his party, the DUP, the largest Unionist party. Suddenly, incredibly, he abandoned his previous stances and went into government with Sinn Fein in 2007, declaring that “Northern Ireland has come to a time of peace, when hate will no longer rule.” He was by then 81. One perceptive commentator probably got it right by suggesting that mixed in with egotism was his final realisation that compromise was the least bad option. “ Sunningdale for slow learners.”

His tenure in government lasted only a year. Later he claimed to have been forced out by his own party and remained bitter to the end. But, his age apart, it is not hard to see why he was ousted. By going in with Sinn Fein, however he dressed it up, he lost the ability to wreck, to command a veto, becoming just another politician. By saying Yes he clearly helped set Northern Ireland on a new path. The tragedy is that this could have been achieved decades earlier, and so much bloodshed and bitterness avoided, had Paisley not rampaged through the middle ground of moderate unionism. We would think better of him had his conversion been more timely.

He won’t be missed.
19/11

A MAN FOR ALL SEASONS

Who did Irish television viewers choose in 2001 as the Irishman of the Twentieth Century? The
answer might surprise. None of the Taoiseachs I mentioned in my last piece, nor our Poets. No sports
personalities or rock stars. It says a lot about the public’s ability to be discerning that they chose a
mild mannered former civil servant, Ken Whitaker, still happily with us at age ninety seven.

A strong candidate as the greatest living Irishman, he is now the subject of a compelling biography
by one of Ireland’s foremost biographers, Anne Chambers, which traces his rise in the bureaucratic
ranks, his spells as Secretary ( head) of the Department of Finance, and Governor of Ireland’s
Central Bank (Ireland’s Fed), and his long and very active retirement.

Particularly fascinating is the account of the close working and personal relationships between Ken
Whitaker and two Irish Taoiseachs, Sean Lemass and Jack Lynch and his involvement in the two
defining aspects of their rule, handling the economy and dealing with the crisis in Northern Ireland. In
both of these his role and influence were key, without ever stepping over the boundary lines between
dutiful civil servant and elected politician.

Ken Whitaker was no Sir Humphrey, the character in a 1980s BBC satirical comedy, a bureaucratic
mandarin who shamelessly manipulated his political master. “A brave idea, Minister,” Sir
Humphrey’s response to a ministerial initiative which was either suicidal politically or of which he
did not approve. Sir Humphrey also stood ready to advance the five reasons for doing nothing on any
issue.

Whitaker defined his approach as giving Ministers the best possible unbiased advice when policy was
being considered, and, once decided on, carrying out that policy to the best of his ability, regardless of
personal views. But this could require at times a need for harsh truths, none more so than in the
Ireland of 1957.

The period since 1945 had been disastrous for Ireland, economically and socially. Several appalling
governments had presided over stagnation that threatened to become terminal. Between 1949 and
1955 Ireland’s GNP increased by just 10.5%, compared to 36.5% in the rest of Europe, a Europe
recovering, incidentally, from war damage –something neutral Ireland had been spared. In 1957 2% of
the population – almost 60,000 people – emigrated. My own family was among them, as were some
people reading this column.

De Valera, re-elected Taoiseach at seventy five, seemed oblivious. He was on recent record as
stating that the restoration of the Irish language remained “Fianna Fail’s greatest national objective.”
Economically the country had languished behind high tariffs to protect a handful of inefficient
industries, while agriculture, exporting almost exclusively to Britain, was hamstrung by Britain’s
cheap food policies. This low risk and myopic approach might have been justified to get the country
through the Second World War without starving but by 1957 it had had its day. Irish politicians
seemed never to have heard of Keynes, which had at least the virtue that they did not try to borrow to
the hilt.

There was no lack of ideas. Ken Whitaker had plenty, He was just forty and already acknowledged as
Ireland’s most brilliant civil servant. His rise had been meteoric, culminating in his appointment as the
youngest ever Secretary of the Department of Finance, acquiring on the way a Master’s Degree in
Economics as well a considerable reputation among his peers internationally. His problem was that
politicians simply did not listen.

Then one did. Whitaker’s blunt analysis of the Irish Economy for the new government pulled no punches. “Policies of protectionism were condemning “the people to a lower standard of living than the rest of Europe.” Then the killer. Unless there were new policies, Whitaker wrote, “it would be better to make an immediate move towards re-incorporation in the United Kingdom rather than wait until our economic decadence became even more apparent.”
Harsh truths indeed from a civil servant to his political masters, but words that needed to be said – and listened to. The strong man of the Cabinet, and heretofore leading advocate of protectionism, Tanaiste Sean Lemass, listened and threw his weight behind Whitaker.

The seminal “Economic Development “document, written by Whitaker and a small dedicated team, was approved by the Government during 1958. It was eventually published, unusually, under Whitaker’s name. There would be no doubting who had come up with the new ideas, but once they worked there was honour all round. The ideas could not have worked without political support, and to his credit Lemass provided it.

Whitaker’s ideas were incorporated in a modest economic programme for growth up to 1963 including export- oriented expansion, the encouragement of inward investment and movement towards free trade. The targets were achieved, critically boosting the country’s morale by showing that things could improve. Further programmes followed. The economy, and Ireland, was never the same again, with Lemass, Taoiseach after 1959, providing the muscle.

Chambers’ book is packed with fascinating detail on the political and economic events of the years that followed as Ireland grew economically and, with Ken Whitaker’s sure hand at the tiller, opened up to international organisations and towards the emerging EEC. He was never afraid to speak his mind and rapidly became the close confidant of both Lemass and his successor, Jack Lynch.

Ken, a Northerner from Rostrevor, had developed a close personal relationship with Northern Ireland Premier Terence O’Neill in the course of attending IMF meetings. This relationship led to the ground-breaking O’Neill Lemass meetings in 1965, which initiated dialogue between the two parts of Ireland and fostered the beginnings of official cross border cooperation. Whitaker thought long and hard about how relations between the two parts of the island might be improved.
This stood him – and Jack Lynch, and Ireland – in good stead when O’Neill’s reforms collapsed and the North began to slide towards chaos. A passionate opponent of violence, he presented a thoughtful position paper to Lynch as early as November 1968 pointing clearly to the ruinous costs of any reunification and advocating a long term strategy of good
neighbourliness. In 1969 he moved to become Governor of the Central Bank at age 52, for reasons still unclear. What IS clear is that he and Charlie Haughey, his Minister, did not get on. We can only speculate.

He continued to provide counsel and advice to Jack Lynch, particularly in facing down Haughey, Blaney and co in 1970 – another reason for his country to thank him. And, for a generation, he provided considered and reasoned contributions to the search for peace. He became a senator. He continued to work on for decades in other areas of public service, chairing bodies including prison reform, the Irish language, Irish fisheries, and, at eighty, a constitutional review group. He retains a love for classical music.

His biography is well worth a read, capturing the man, and would make a good Christmas stocking filler. One chapter, “A Man for All Seasons” is clearly one affectionate image the author has of her subject.

Ken Whitaker was born in the Year of the Rising. It would be fitting if he were there to celebrate its centenary. No one deserves the Centenarian Bounty more.

20/10

N.B. I had just reviewed Anne Chambers’ book on Ken Whitaker for the Irish Independent. I had been confined to 850 words for the review, but felt that more should be written about an outstanding public servant at a time when there is so much denigration of the public service in Ireland and elsewhere. This does slightly more justice to the man.

TO BE A TAOISEACH (I)

Ireland’s ninth Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds, died recently after a cruel battle with Alzheimer’s, only days before the twentieth anniversary of the event that will forever define his political career – the 1994 IRA Ceasefire. His death brought to mind the, perhaps apocryphal, remark of his predecessor, Charlie Haughey that, while nobody would go down in history for fixing Ireland’s economy, whoever solved the Northern Ireland problem WOULD be remembered.

Reynolds did not end the violence but he certainly introduced a game – changer. After 31 August 1994 things were never the same. Certainly the pieces had been on the board for some time, but without the dedication, effort – and courage – of Reynolds and a small number of officials, the ceasefire would not have occurred when and how it did. Put bluntly, there are people today who would not be alive but for Albert Reynolds. His otherwise controversial reign as Taoiseach was unremarkable set against this achievement.

Reynolds’ legacy is secure. What of his fellow Taoisigh? He had eight predecessors, and, in the two decades since he resigned, four successors. This in almost a century of uninterrupted parliamentary democracy, something Ireland shares in Europe only with Britain, Sweden, Switzerland and Finland and of which we can justifiably be proud.

The jury is still largely “out” on his four successors, particularly the last two. John Bruton, the shortest serving, Reynolds’ successor, will probably best be remembered as a safe pair of hands who helped further embed the Peace Process. His government also took the first major steps to combat organised crime by sanctioning the seizure of criminals’ assets.

Bertie Ahearn, Ireland’s second longest serving Taoiseach, is still a figure of controversy. What is not in dispute is the sterling work he put in on the Peace Process, a hands on involvement culminating in the current political settlement.

The towering figure of De Valera has to some degree overshadowed his predecessor, W.T. Cosgrave, the first head of government of an independent Ireland ( not, technically a Taoiseach, but included in the pantheon). Cosgrave’s achievements were considerable. He shepherded the state through its first years, including a bitter civil war, in which his government executed, controversially, without trial, seventy seven republicans arrested under emergency legislation.

His government went on to establish the institutions of the new state, including, crucially, a universally accepted and respected unarmed police force, in tandem with the downsizing of a large army. Economically he pursued prudent policies while diplomatically he sought to broaden the scope of Irish independence by pushing the limits of the “ dominion status” accorded to Ireland by the peace treaty with Britain. Under Cosgrave Ireland remained a democratic state even as countries elsewhere were sliding into autocracy or dictatorship.

Cosgrave was succeeded in 1932 by De Valera, who was Taoiseach for twenty one of the next twenty eight years and who has been the dominant Irish political figure of the Twentieth Century. For better or worse, love him or loathe him, we live in an Ireland largely shaped, institutionally, by him. We live by his Constitution, some elements of which are well past their sell by date, but which still, overall, commands a high level of legitimacy and acceptance among the electorate.

Whether he would necessarily have approved the changes made in it since 1937 is moot; the important point is that the Constitution contained sufficient provisions for organic change and amendment to have lasted. The Constitution, making Ireland a republic in all but name, was the culmination of De Valera’s policy after 1932 of using the available constitutional and legislative levers to diminish the remaining trappings of British rule.

His other vital, and defining, achievement was to maintain Ireland’s neutrality – and territorial integrity – during World War Two. The fact that Ireland was not directly in a major theatre of war undoubtedly helped, but it could have gone differently in the context of the Battle of the Atlantic. Britain invaded Iceland in 1941 and Churchill cast covetous eyes at, and made noises about, seizing Ireland’s ports, inexplicably ceded by Chamberlain in 1938 ( but then that was the year of Munich!).

De Valera’s adroit political and diplomatic footwork in the first years of the War was crucial. Ireland would be “ neutral with a certain consideration for Britain,” a Dev quote contained in Joe Joyce’s fascinating recent novel “ Echobeat” about Ireland in the winter of 1940, which I commend strongly. And Ireland remained neutral. De Valera’s one rush of blood came with signing the Book of Condolences for Hitler. Yet he bounced back weeks later with a memorable response to a Churchill tirade against Irish neutrality, his radio broadcast of May 1945 unforgettable.

De Valera stopped short of declaring Ireland a republic. That was done in 1948 in Canada by his successor, Fine Gael’s John A Costello. The declaration appears to have been a solo run but once made there was no going back. This was about his only contribution in two terms as Taoiseach. His first government collapsed in 1951 soon after a capitulation to the Catholic Church over proposals to provide limited free medical care to mothers and children, Costello declaring he was an Irishman second and a Catholic first. The 50s were a dreadful decade for Ireland economically and Costello did nothing to help.

Nor did De Valera, who continued to idealise a pastoral rural based economy before being finally kicked upstairs to the ceremonial role of President in 1959. His successor was the pragmatic Sean Lemass, by then almost sixty, who had been an able and pragmatic Minister for decades. Once in power, he set about reorganising and restructuring Ireland’s economy to drag it into the second half of the Twentieth century. He encouraged FDI, cut tariffs and began attempts to join Europe, as well as commencing a dialogue with his Northern counterpart. He is generally regarded as the father of modern Ireland and perhaps the best manager to hold the office of Taoiseach, partly giving the lie to son –in –law Haughey’s remark about fixing Ireland’s economy.

Lemass was succeeded in 1966 by Jack Lynch, a former GAA star and essentially a compromise candidate. Mild mannered Lynch was in power when the North boiled over. His defining moments came in 1969 and 1970 when he saw off a major threat to our democratic institutions by resisting calls to intervene in the North and later firing several Ministers, including Haughey , over a plot to smuggle arms to republicans. For that we should be grateful. Less so for his tactic of buying the 1977 election, generating a culture of expectation and entitlement which dogs us still.
Lynch’s tenure was interrupted from 1973-1977 by Liam Cosgrave, son of W.T., still happily with us at 94. Cosgrave, a devout Catholic, voted against his government’s legislation on contraception, but will also be remembered for a fearless and no nonsense approach to upholding law and order in the face of threats by subversives.

Charlie Haughey and Garret Fitzgerald continue to stoke public interest and debate sufficiently to merit a second column between them. There will be space also for some thoughts on Brian Cowen and the performance to date of Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

15/9