paleoutlaw

THE FASTEST GROWING ECONOMY IN EUROPE? 1509 LXXIX

November 30, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

THE FASTEST GROWING ECONOMY IN EUROPE ?

According to economist David McWilliams “Breakfast Roll Man” won the 2007 election for Fianna Fail. The epithet described the pragmatic , usually suburban , heavily mortgaged individual during the final years of the Celtic Tiger, who sought continuity in the rising curve of property prices on which his own (paper) prosperity depended.

A different era. Today, with an election in six months, a new notional person has emerged – “Ashbourne Annie”- which Labour party strategists hope will bolster its flagging electoral prospects. Annie, the result of “months of intensive market research” (!), is a young, stay-at-home mother in Dublin’s commuter belt, heavily mortgaged, in negative equity, struggling but seeing at last some light in the tunnel and hoping that October’s budget will provide tax cuts and welfare increases to improve further her lot. She represents the strategists’ vision of the classic floating voter whose support can be bought.

There is certainly a pitch for her vote with newly introduced universal free doctor’s visits for those under six and hints of increases in non means-tested child benefits come next January. Factor in flagged reductions in tax rates and perhaps a pay rise for her husband and Annie may feel well-done-by enough to be swayed by what’s on the table next election rather than the vague uncosted promises of the opposition. While some social media comment has derided the “Annie” concept, it’s a catch all with appeal for swathes of the electorate.

If the carrots don’t work, what promised to be a tough election for Labour – with heavy losses already anticipated – could morph into a disaster. The opinion polls, after some improvement, show Labour support now well below the critical 10% level, roughly half its 2011 result, with only the potential budget “bounce” to come. It’s not just Labour. Any hopes of being lifted by clutching onto Fine Gael’s coattails are also in the doldrums. A poll in early August showed Fine Gael becalmed in the mid-twenties, stalled after several promising months and well short of the magical minimum of 30%.

Ironically this has occurred just as the latest economic figures show Ireland set to become Europe’s fastest growing economy for a second year, with 2014 growth now revised upwards to over 5% and the prospects looking good. There is more money around. Unemployment is down. People are spending. New car sales are up 30% in the first seven months – the best figures since the slump began in 2008. Ireland’s debt to GDP ratio is down to 110% and falling ( for reference Greek debt is 175% plus and rising).

How to explain it all? Ashbourne, Annie’s “home,” offers a clue, though hardly what Labour’s thinkers had in mind. A pleasant dormitory town about twelve miles from Dublin city centre, Ashbourne’s population has grown rapidly in the last decade to about 15,000. Most of the new mortgage holders are in serious negative equity, kept afloat by historically low interest rates. Families are struggling with reduced income, unemployment, shorter working hours and increased taxes and charges. In short a community typical of many across Ireland.

Ashbourne is well provided with shops. Branches of Ireland’s five major supermarket chains are located within several hundred yards of each other. The street between two of them is lined with shops – all vacant except for several charity shops. There are well established businesses in other streets, but vacant shopfronts there also. Ashbourne Annie may be experiencing an upturn in her economic fortunes but so far it’s slight and, taking a cue from her town, recovery is unevenly spread and far from general. Again, a community typical of many across Ireland. Put simply the economic recovery at macro level has yet to trickle down to the micro level and opinion polls show an electorate far from gruntled.

2015 seemed to be going well. The Government had avoided obvious banana skins. It was helped also by the outcome of the Greek saga and the continued disarray and fragmentation of the opposition. A flurry of (paper) activity and announcements during June and July gave the impression of progress towards fulfilment of some of the 2014 Programme of Government Priorities. Pronouncements that there would be no going back to the profligate policies and overspending of the past were counterbalanced with hints dropped about giveaways in October’s Budget.

In early July doctors were faced down over the Under Sixes issue – a handsome vote inducement to the 1.7 million aged twenty to forty five – those most likely to have young children; cancer victims apart, nothing for those with really sick children over six without medical cards. A media campaign – ongoing as I write, solemnly announced that over -70s would henceforth – like the Under Sixes – be eligible for free GP visits cards.

The subterfuge here is breath-taking. Prior to 2008 ALL over 70s had been entitled to FULL medical cards, covering free visits to GPs and involving, additionally, crucially, access to a wide range of free medicines and treatments, plus additional benefits. Means-testing after 2008 substantially reduced those qualifying – the number dropping by 16,356 last year despite an increase in the population over 70. The net effect is that fewer of those most likely to require expensive medicines and treatment – the elderly – qualify, the savings used to subsidise the predominantly healthy under-sixes.

But also in July the fiasco that keeps on giving – Irish Water – re-emerged . With public protest having largely subsided, the Government had thought the issue settled. It put on a brave face when the shock returns for those paying the first water bills – 46% – were revealed at the end of June. Worse was to come when the EU found that Irish Water’s borrowings must remain on the State’s balance sheet. In short it will cost – not next year but thereafter, reducing the amount available for other expenditure or tax cuts.

The issue has once again become the lightning rod for public dissatisfaction, with Irish Water perceived to be wholly the creature of the current Government, not a Fianna Fail legacy .Many eyes will now be focussed after September on the numbers paying the second bill. With no immediate penalties for non-payment, more may decide not to pay to see what happens The Government’s dilemma is that ostensibly it has nothing further to give on the issue, short of root and branch overhaul . If the “can’t pay, won’t pay” numbers rise, it could have no option.. Its re-electability in any combination may hinge on this.

There has been considerable haruspication over the latest opinion poll results. The general conclusion is that, short of a miracle, the current coalition will not be returned without – at the very least – considerable additional support. Even a mooted possible voting pact, with folk memories of the (successful) 1973 joint Fine Gael and Labour government programme, is unlikely to suffice. The three on – paper viable coalitions are Fine Gael – Fianna Fail, Fine Gael –Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail – Sinn Fein, all strenuously ruled out by the principals – on principle. Interestingly, the ubiquitous bookie, Paddy Power, is strongly favouring a Fine Gael – Fianna Fail coalition (at five- to –four, with seven to-two the field). Does he know something we don’t?

12/08

WITH OUR BLESSING by JO SPAIN : a review

October 7, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

WITH OUR BLESSING

JO SPAIN

QUERCUS 540 pp €17.99

It’s December 2011 and the body of an elderly woman is found crucified and mutilated in the Phoenix Park just a short distance from Garda Headquarters. When it emerges that the victim was a nun, Inspector Tom Reynolds realises that this is far different to the usual gangland killings with which his squad have to deal. The killer was making a point but what point?

The dead woman was Mother Superior in a rural convent outside Limerick, a convent that once housed one of the notorious Magdalen Laundries. Tom Reynolds and his team descend on the convent and begin to sift through a painful chapter of Ireland’s not too distant past. Could there be a connection, with someone from the past returning to wreak revenge? Or is the answer to be found in the personality of the nun herself, clearly disliked if not hated by her fellow religious and many of the villagers?

The convent is home to about twenty nuns, some of whom at least appear potential suspects. When inspected, its archives reveal a catalogue of ill treatment of the unfortunate girls and young women consigned there over decades, something confirmed by several of the nuns. Tom Reynolds rapidly becomes convinced that the clue to the murder lies within these past events, which have included illegal adoptions and mysterious pregnancies by women locked up for several years. Is the killer a wronged mother, deprived of her child at birth, or one of the adopted children? And what role does and did the local parish priest, the only ally of the murdered nun, play in all of this?

This latest addition to Irish detective fiction is the debut novel of Jo Spain and was one of those shortlisted in this year’s Richard and Judy Search for a Bestseller competition. For the author, the story has a very personal dimension. As she notes, her father was adopted out of out of an Irish mother and baby home and the book which “visits the sad history of such institutions” is written in his memory. The novel’s backdrop was based on some of MS Spain’s in-depth research to trace her family’s roots.

The Magdalen Laundries and the treatment of single mothers thirty years ago are a stain on Ireland’s recent history, something many survivors – and society – are still coming to terms with. Jo Spain’s novel attempts to bring to life in fictional terms what happened to some of the victims while making clear that there are many files to be read and many stories still to be told. As might be expected there were good nuns who deplored what was happening and who tried to help but the system was there and Irish society of the time was content to allow it. How times have changed, and the author cleverly contrasts the treatment meted out thirty or more years ago with the attitudinal change today when a detective’s daughter reveals she is pregnant.

“With our Blessing” is an easy, though not a comfortable, read.

30/08

THE GAME CHANGER by LOUISE PHILLIPS : a review

October 7, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

THE GAME CHANGER

LOUISE PHILLIPS

HATCHETTE BOOKS 422pp €17.99

Kate Pearson is back in Louise Phillips’ fourth book featuring the Irish criminal psychologist.

But it’s a different Kate Pearson in what is arguably the author’s most ambitious novel yet. The Pearson stories are set in real time and events have moved on since “Last Kiss.” Kate has finally split up with her husband, though relations appear fairly amicable over access to Charlie, their son. She is now living with her collaborator in earlier books, Detective Inspector Adam O Connor. She has scaled down her work and is enjoying life.

But not for long. When Adam is called out in the middle of the night to cover the apparent suicide of the Chief Superintendent’s brother-in-law it sets off a chain of events in which Kate becomes not only professional adviser but one of those intimately involved. The dead man, O’Neill, was an acquaintance of her late father and his death is suspiciously like that of his foster child, a friend of Kate’s who had died when she was twelve. O’Neill withdrew large sums of money before his death, raising the possibility of blackmail. Curiously, also, some of his DNA had been found at the murder scene in New York of an Irish emigrant known to Kate’s father.

Then an anonymous note is pushed under Kate’s front door:“ I remember you, Kate.” It stirs up memories, some latent, some forgotten. For Kate has a childhood secret. Aged twelve she had been abducted and had blotted out the memory of subsequent events. She learns that her parents had lied to her about her missing episode and wonders what else they lied about. Were there events in the past in some way linking her father with the two recent deaths? When more notes arrive Kate realises she is being stalked. Adam can promise protection but is it enough? And what happened when Kate was abducted?

Enter the Game Changer and a complicated parallel story. People are disappearing , vulnerable women for the most part, having, like O’Neill, manifested signs of depression and also having withdrawn large amounts of money before vanishing. All had reportedly been attending self-help and “enlightenment” courses. Kate, consulted, and amidst her own troubles and fears, suspects a cult, with all its sinister connotations. But who heads up the cult and could there be some connection with whoever is stalking Kate?

To reveal more would be to spoil what is another enjoyable Louise Phillips’ novel. The pace fairly zips along with over one hundred short chapters and frequent switches in points of view helping to stoke and maintain the tension. Kate and Adam are plausible and well-drawn characters, with complex personalities and a relationship to match, not always an idyllic one . The dialogue throughout is handled excellently.

If there is a criticism it is that the parallel story has sufficient depth and appeal to have constituted a novel in its own right . Several of the “disappeared” are sketched expertly and sympathetically, highlighting why they would be vulnerable to a plausible con operation like a cult. There’s also a surprising parallel minor hero who helps link the two narratives at a level other than that of police investigation. Finally, the author’s capacity for descriptive prose is given full expression, in particular in two scenes, one an account of a very distressed woman, the other a chapter in which a six year old describes the world she sees around her. This last piece was also that chosen by the author to read at the formal book launch. Unsurprisingly.

11/09

SNAPSHOTS by MICHAEL O’ HIGGINS : a review

October 7, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

SNAPSHOTS

MICHAEL O’ HIGGGINS

NEW ISLAND BOOKS 313 pp €14.99

Michael O’Higgins is a man of considerable talents. He started out as a journalist for Magill and Hot Press, writing on Crime and Northern Ireland. He published a lengthy profile of the Irish criminal Martin Cahill ( “The General”), based on extensive interviews. Called to the Bar in 1988, he became a Senior Counsel in 2000 and is now one of Ireland’s top barristers. In recent years he has appeared as defence counsel for John Gilligan, Michael McKevitt in connection with the Omagh bombing and former Chairman of Anglo Irish Bank, Sean Fitzpatrick. He was also lead counsel in the prosecution and conviction of Limerick gangster Wayne Dundon.

One of his hobbies is writing and he has twice won the Hennessy OXO Literary Awards in 2008 and 2010 for his short stories “The Great Escape” and “The Migration.” He has now produced his first book, Snapshots, distilling in it elements from his lengthy experience as a criminal lawyer.

It is Dublin in the early 1980s, a different world. It is the Ireland of the IRA Hunger Strikes and the public debate over abortion and whether Kerry might win five in a row. It is also one where for the first time Ireland is encountering a serious drugs problem and the rise of organised crime. There is the added worry that the Provos, their support massively boosted by the Hunger Strikes, are becoming active in Dublin working class areas, even cooperating with the local criminal gangs. The top brass in the Gardai are worried.

The most prominent gangster is Christy Clarke from the North Inner City, a murderer who escaped prosecution on a technicality and who is notorious for his ruthless attitude, meticulous preparation and planning which has so far enabled him to evade justice . At home he’s a wife –beater and a boozer with his soft side reserved for his racing pigeons. In dogged pursuit of Clarke is Detective Sergeant Dick Roche, frustrated at Clarke’s ability to evade justice and determined to be there when Clarke finally slips up.

Clarke’s twelve year old son Wayne has a talent for music and is taken under the wing of the local curate, Fr. Brendan. Fr. Brendan appears clean cut and above reproach and is chosen to be part of the team leading the anti-abortion campaign. In fact Brendan is anything but and is leading a double life, with potentially explosive consequences if revealed. Yet it is in the course of his normal pastoral duties that he unwittingly fingers a prison officer for retaliation by the IRA, acting through Christy Clarke. The brutal attack which follows triggers events involving all four principals.

The book is a page turner and has everything one might expect given the author : allegations of Garda brutality, tip-offs from informers, intimidation of witnesses, cross questioning of suspects and courtroom drama (and comedy) in abundance, all described in terms that ring of authenticity. The courtroom scenes involving a clever and resourceful defendant are particularly realistic. The difficulties of actually nailing a major criminal are pointed up even if, as the author notes, ” a judge handing down sentence to a man with an endless stream of road traffic convictions wasn’t long reading between the lines.” The denouement is both dramatic and unexpected.

Perhaps the ultimate accolade for authenticity is the description by the CIA of a book about its activities as “ a novel but not fiction.” This gritty thriller about the Dublin crime scene in the 1980s is in this mould.

19/09

THE REFUGEE/MIGRANT CRISIS

August 25, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in Soundings Off

THE REFUGEE/MIGRANT CRISIS
SOME NOTES FROM A FACEBOOK THREAD, AUGUST 2015

How the EU should respond adequately to the surge in the numbers of refugees seeking to enter Europe continues as I write.

The situation has changed and worsened quite dramatically since I wrote “Europe’s Rio Grande” three months ago. The tempo of arrivals has increased. Thousands continue to attempt to cross the Mediterranean from Libya, bolstered by the fact that they are now likely to be picked up and rescued by European ships rather than ignored. Media attention has switched to the separate flow of refugees, mainly from the Middle East, arriving in Greece after the shorter and far less dangerous boat journey via Turkey. There has been dramatic news footage of thousands arriving on Kos and other Greek islands and later of crowds pressing to enter Macedonia and then Serbia en route to Hungary and the prosperous countries beyond . There is now a growing awareness across Europe that the issue is very much a live one – demanding an urgent response. There is little consensus on what to do.

The “thread” began on 22 August in the wake of the suggestion from the German Interior Minister that Germany could receive up to 800,000 refugees in 2015. “A game changer” as a left wing friend posted on Facebook, suggesting that Ireland (and the EU)) would have to get its act and reaction very much together. I have made two contributions, the first signalling what might be expected of Ireland in terms of burden sharing, if this were to become a reality, (45-80,000) the second recalling what was done just over a decade ago when Ireland, almost totally unprepared, was confronted with the unheralded and unexpected arrival of thousands of asylum seekers (45,000 over five years). While many are calling for more to be done for the refugees, few are putting a figure on what Ireland could/should do in terms of taking numbers beyond calling for an increase in the 600 we have already contracted to take.

An issue that clearly has a long way to run.

25/8

(I)

I’m not sure how the Germans came up with 800,000. The ballpark figure for current refugees being bandied about is around five million or around 1% of the EU population. In Germany’s case 1% = 800,000, so perhaps that’s how. A similar calculation would give a figure for Ireland of 45,000 or so. A calculation based on contributions to the EU budget, where Ireland gives roughly 1.8%, would work out at around 80,000 for Ireland.

But these are back-of-envelope figures. What about the already expressed reservations of many of the 2004 intake into the EU of taking more than a handful at best? Does anyone see the UK taking plus or minus half a million? Or the Netherlands 200,000? Only Sweden appears to be taking the notionally “correct quota” at present. Moreover German demographics also are such that Germany requires immigrants young enough to work. This doesn’t apply across the board -e.g. we’re always boasting of having one of the youngest populations in Europe, so we don’t “need” immigrants in the economic sense.

There has been very little joined up thinking by politicians on this across Europe but what is very apparent is growing public resistance in a number of countries to taking in more than a token number of new immigrants. Perhaps an IGC to tackle what Merkel has rightly flagged as THE major issue facing the EU is the way forward, but how quickly and when? Meanwhile the crisis mounts.

22/8
(II)

I see Merkel and Hollande are meeting today, inter alia to discuss the refugee/migrant situation.

We’ll see what if anything emerges from this. As I mentioned earlier an IGC (or at the very least a formal EU summit) could be the next step. Whether there is any possibility of securing EU consensus on burden sharing is very much open to doubt, given the lukewarm and patchy reaction to the Commission’s modest proposals several months ago to share out 50,000, together with the flat rejection by several countries of taking ANY.

I heard one reporter today suggesting that Germany was arm twisting the Central Europeans to accept some – pointing to the billions provided to those countries before and after accession. Even assuming their efforts meet with success, there is likely to be a considerable shortfall in the numbers countries agree to take. Any compulsory burden sharing would require treaty change. Good luck with that!

I’m not sure that the 800,000 figure “Germany expects” is on the mark. It would imply at least a doubling of the current flows in the remaining four months of the year. Certainly the number will be huge but I suspect the 800k figure was in part a trial balloon to wake countries up to the potential dimension of the problem. That Guardian article was interesting in that it made the point I had already flagged – that demographics will require Germany to import millions of immigrants to supplement its aging workforce and that this was true for many other EU states (though not Ireland).

Our attitude may well be determined in part by the common travel area and clearly a Brexit would have consequences here. Some figures to ponder in terms of our capacity to absorb refugees is what happened during the surge in asylum seekers at the beginning of the century. In 1998 we recorded 4626 asylum applications; in 1999 that figure rose to 7724. In 2000 it jumped to 10938, was 10325 in 2001 before peaking at 11634 in 2002. There was a sharp decline to 7900 in 2003, and 4766 in 2004 as new procedures came into force. (Currently the much reduced level of applications is running at double last year’s figure – 1481 to end June as opposed to 1448 for all of 2014).

The point to note here is that, in a five year period, largely flying by the seat of our pants, in terms of people turning up and claiming asylum, Ireland handled around 45,000 new arrivals, all dependent on the state’s resources for support. Not all arrived at once, but all were dealt with, with at times 1000 per month arriving. So methods and procedures have evolved, and there is a body of experience built up, whatever may be thought of the deficiencies in the system, including areas like direct provision.

The unremarked elephant-in-the-room is public opinion throughout Europe, which seems to be intensifying against immigrants as the numbers rise. Jamal Osman was talking with Keelin Shanley this morning and spoke of a sea change in attitude, suggesting there is now growing hatred towards asylum seekers and immigrants in sharp contrast to the attitude when he arrived in Britain in 1999. That description may be too stark but his observations should be borne in mind.

A final thought. There is a less than delicious irony in Hungary’s planned border fence with Serbia to keep refugees out. In 1989 it was Hungary’s decision to open its border with Austria, allowing East Germans “out, ” that accelerated the collapse of the Communist system in Central Europe.
24/8

FREEDOM’S CHILD by JAX MILLER : a review

August 6, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

FREEDOM’S CHILD JAX MILLER

HARPER COLLINS 2015 357pp

First, I should declare an interest. I know the author. I first met Jax almost three years ago at a session of the Irish Crime Writers’ Group. She read an extract from her then work-in-progress (not “Freedom”, btw). What she read out was exciting, with a masterly use of language, particularly in the dialogue – New York Smart. She had that essential component for a writer, difficult to define, to capture a scene and bring it to life in a few sentences. If successful writing is ninety eight percent perspiration and two per cent inspiration, it struck me then that Jax had that two per cent and more. There was raw talent there.

“Freedom’s Child” is her first book to be published. I read it at a sitting. The last time I did that was with Cormac McCarthy’s “The Road.” It’s a riveting story, with a great hook in the opening line “My name is Freedom Oliver and I killed my daughter.” It’s not exactly crime – though there’s plenty in it, including an impressive body count. It’s a thriller, certainly, but essentially it’s the story of a mother , hard done by life and circumstances, looking for her missing daughter.

The daughter (and a son) was given up for adoption at birth by Freedom, who was facing a murder charge in New Jersey for a crime she didn’t commit, killing her husband, a corrupt cop. Eventually acquitted and exonerated she then finds the adoption process to be irreversible. Moreover her in-laws, essentially a criminal gang, are seeking revenge, and she is obliged to enter a witness protection programme. When we meet up with her, eighteen years after the event, she has, not surprisingly, buried herself in booze and drugs in a remote part of Oregon. When she learns simultaneously that her in-laws are gunning for her and know her location, and that her daughter has gone missing from her religious fundamentalist foster parents – the action begins.

And what action! It’s difficult to avoid clichés like “ page turner, riveting, gritty, emotional roller coaster, raw, unputdownable, tough as nails.” It’s all of those. Lee Child is quoted as describing it as “original, compelling and seriously recommended.” It’s all of that. To reveal any more of the plot would be to introduce spoilers. But two examples of her style merit noting. The language is quite superb – one of Jax’s strongpoints from the beginning. It’s the language of the street, not pretty but real and evocative, as in: “The day’s as grey as the cigarette smoke from a whore in Times Square on a frigid January morning.” And secondly there is a short chapter, shot through with black humour and empathic compassion, featuring Freedom’s encounter with a neighbour, a harmless, hopeless, Alzheimer’s sufferer, neglected by her “snot-nosed daughter”, with “ business skirts so tight that they apparently choke off the blood to her conscience.”

For a first novel “Freedom’s Child” is particularly strong, quite the best debut thriller I’ve read since Roger Hobbs’ “Ghostman.” It’s far from perfect, but which novel isn’t. The story is at once too full and too empty; there’s enough plot for two novels and a central episode in the book that is extraneous. The main settings are familiar territory. Some of the characters are caricatures at best, stage props or stereotypes otherwise. But none of this diminishes from a highly readable, racy, pacy story. Freedom herself is well drawn, warts and all; she’s not the most appealing of characters but she’s easy to understand. She’s like the book itself – beautiful it isn’t; compelling it is.
Highly recommended – and not just because I know the author!

05/08

THE STOLEN ONES by RICHARD MONTANARI : a review

August 6, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in Books I Have Read

THE STOLEN ONES

RICHARD MONTANARI

SPHERE 2014 455 pp

Philadelphia is the fifth largest city in the USA and was the first capital of the independent country. It’s well worth a visit, with many historic landmarks, including a superb Irish famine memorial and certainly counts as one of the great American cities. I’ve enjoyed every visit, and have friends there. Yet compared to New York, Chicago or New Orleans (and, indeed others) it features relatively infrequently in fiction, especially crime fiction, with few household names, even though it’s well up there in the murder stats. One of that few is Richard Montanari, an excellent writer of police procedurals He’s now in his sixties and broke into writing in the mid -1990s after a varied career that included a long spell in journalism.

As the name suggests, Montanari is of Italian descent on his father’s side, though, interestingly, his mother was from Estonia. Originally from Cleveland, where his first novels are set, ten years ago he launched a series based in Philadelphia featuring detectives Kevin Byrne ( a veteran cop) and Jessica Balzano (much younger and daughter of a famous Philly cop). Their adventures are set in real time so we see the characters and their families changing and evolving as time passes; Balzano’s daughter, for example, three in the first novel, “The Rosary Girls, ”is now a teenager.

Montanari never disappoints and provides excellent entertainment. “ The Stolen Ones”, published here in 2014, is the seventh in the series, most of which I ‘ve read, and is up to the usual standard. (The eighth, “The Doll Maker” – which I haven’t read – was released earlier this year.) Page turners, certainly, with some well-drawn police characters and some really creepy villains rounded off with clever plots, many with a Catholic religious element, reflecting the makeup of the city’s white blue collar community. The violence, while plentiful, is never gratuitous.

A feature of Montanari’s work is the atmospheric picture of Philadelphia which he weaves. The reader is drawn into the story and feels she knows the gritty environment in which it takes place. Not quite Gothic but getting there. This is no accident. Montanari does considerable research for his books and it shows. In “The Stolen Ones,” central to the action is the network of catacombs under the city, some two hundred years old, up to thirty feet beneath street level and connected by almost three thousand miles of sewers, many navigable by humans. Montanari went there and did that.

Central also to the plot is the Delaware Valley State Hospital, modelled on an actual institution – the Philadelphia State Hospital – a place in the folklore of the city; think Grangegorman in the case of Dublin. Here again Montanari has done his research, not only about the institution and it’s chequered history, but also about lucid dreaming and dream engineering, something central to the plot. Without giving too much away, the story features the investigation of a number of curious but linked murders which eventually point to a perpetrator who has been dead for decades. The how and why are revealed slowly. There’s a link also to Estonia where Montanari again demonstrates the fidelity and thoroughness of his research with up to date and accurate reporting on the minutiae of the structure and organisation of the Estonian police force ( having just written a thriller featuring the Estonian police I can testify to this!).

In a number of frank and interesting interviews with the author on the web he recounts how he came to write, his background, influences on him and his interest in the immigrant experience in the USA, something he will cover in his next book, “Shutter Man,” to be published later this year. He also provides some useful advice to wannabe crime writers – get the pathology of the killer right first and let the plot develop from that.

The book is well worth a read, the author well worth following.

S.F.
28/7/15

GREEK TRAGEDY – OR FARCE ? 1508 LXXVIII

August 6, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

GREEK TRAGEDY – OR FARCE?

It’s been a bruising few months for the Eurozone, and for one Member State in particular. It’s been also, depending on your point of view, an object lesson in Economics, in Realpolitik, in how the Strong can bully the Weak, on the impracticalities of instant solutions to complex problems, and above all on the inadequacies of the Eurozone.

The Greek saga still has some way to run. As I write negotiations on a third bailout are to begin, the Greek Parliament having passed legislation agreeing austerity measures harsher than those rejected in a referendum less than two weeks before. The measures were very much the stick part of the offer/ultimatum from the other Eurozone countries. The carrot the prospect of securing that third bailout of an estimated $90 billion.

Where that money if agreed will come from remains to be seen. Will all Eurozone countries pay, including the four poorer than Greece (the Baltics and Slovakia) and the three with roughly the same income? And what guarantees will be sought to ensure that Greece implements the measures passed – a problem with earlier austerity packages?

Moreover the issue of existing debt write down is still not resolved, lending an air of unreality to the sticking plaster solution currently proposed. Quite simply Greece cannot – ever –repay what it owes – roughly $350 billion. It may hope to repay, or make some gesture by having portion of any third bailout loan earmarked for “debt repayment” – as is being proposed – but that is only to deny the political and economic reality. Adding an extra $90 billion to the amount owing, bringing it to more than twice annual GDP, merely compounds the issue.

One solution would be to write off permanently a large proportion of the debt. This would involve Greece’s partners writing off monies already lent ( in Ireland’s case around $400 million). Whether that will prove palatable remains to be seen. A write-off has been tried once before, in 2012 . There is talk of finessing somehow the terms of “repayment” by lengthening the period allowed or giving extended holidays from interest – “Extend and pretend.”. ( Ireland got some finessing of its bailout terms but our case was simple compared to that of Greece.) This has also been tried before. And the sum owing would remain. A malign scenario would be a Greek exit from the Eurozone, possibly temporarily, with a devalued Drachma and more short term grief for the Greek people. That would presumably also involve some debt restructuring and write off. Some choice!

The fundamental flaw in the Eurozone from the start was its political nature – a monetary union not underpinned by a fiscal union and with insufficient fiscal controls and sanctions. Eurozone members were theoretically limited to annual national budget deficits of 3% of GDP. When Germany and France became first to break this limit in 2005 and were not punished it became clear that political considerations were paramount and that a softly softly approach would apply.

All was fine as long as economies were expanding. The lower interest rates which Germany enjoyed were suddenly available to other countries. Cheap credit led to a surge in government and private borrowing and spending in countries like Ireland and Greece. Germany benefitted from the Euro’s exchange rate, more favourable than the old Deutschmark. Then came the international financial crisis and recession , which began in the USA and spread rapidly to the EU in 2008.

The peripheral PIGS, which had benefitted greatly from cheap money, were hit hardest (and with them the Baltics, particularly Latvia). All four eventually required bailouts, though for different reasons. In Ireland a property bubble collapsed in 2008, ending a boom period during which the revenues the bubble generated had paid for tax cuts and generous increases in welfare benefits. The banks which had financed the boom collapsed and required state recapitalisation. The consequential yawning budget deficit precipitated a downward fiscal and economic spiral which ended when Ireland could no longer borrow money internationally. In November 2010 Ireland secured an €85 billion rescue package from the EU, the ECB and the IMF (the Troika).

The package required spending cuts and tax increases to restore the tax base, but, once adhered to, the harsh medicine worked and Ireland exited the Troika programme after three years. While a legacy of austerity remains, and the recovery is far from complete, the Irish economy has picked up dramatically over the past eighteen months, with all indicators positive. Another PIG, Portugal, has also exited its Troika programme.

Greece was different. Its economy, which grew strongly before 2007, was heavily dependent on tourism and shipping – industries sensitive to economic downturn. Economic growth and the cheap credit available from Europe saw government expenditure grow sharply during the decade, outstripping tax revenue, the money financing public sector jobs, welfare benefits, pensions and military expenditure,. Tax evasion, traditionally a scourge – put simply the well-off didn’t pay tax, and much of the economy was cash based – remained chronic. The National Debt, historically high, mounted, pushing, then exceeding 100% of GDP. Official statistics, always doubtful, were massaged to cover. Government revenue actually fell by 15% in 2009. Borrowing costs rose.

Revelations that the previous government had falsified the figures, disguising the true extent of annual borrowing, proved the final straw for international lenders. The vital factor of investor confidence was lost. The Greek government , like Ireland’s later, proved unable to borrow internationally and, in April 2010, was forced to seek EU and IMF assistance. A loan of €110 billion was agreed, contingent on the introduction of severe austerity measures. These were greeted with widespread street protests throughout Greece, including several fatalities, with banners and slogans proclaiming the Greeks were not like the Irish.

A year later delays in implementing reforms, together with a worsening recession, saw the Troika agree to an easing of the bailout terms. Nothing worked and in March 2012, a second bailout, this time of €130 billion, was agreed, contingent on further austerity measures. The bailout was accompanied by the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history with Greece’s debts reduced by €100 billion. Private bondholders were “burned” – losing over 50% of their holdings. More street protests followed.

Since then there has been political and social turmoil over the further austerity measures needed to ensure tranches of the second bailout were paid. This culminated in the government’s overthrow last January and its replacement by the far left Syriza government with a mandate to reject austerity and the second bailout. Ironically, Syriza’s success came just as the Greek economy seemed to be turning the corner. Since January Syriza has postured and refused to engage in serious negotiations even as Greece’s economy worsened. Its intransigence has exasperated and alienated its Eurozone partners. Trust and sympathy has been lost. Eventually as the money ran out, Syriza ran out of wiggle room and, at the last moment, folded when its bluff was called.

Some may feel schadenfreude at Syriza’s come-uppance. A cynic might observe that only a party as left wing as Syriza can now deliver Greece. But without sorting out or side-lining somehow the debt mess there will be no definitive solution. Hard pounding, Gentlemen.

19/07

WHEN THE DOVES DISAPPEARED by SOFI OXANEN: A REVIEW FOR WRITING.IE

July 18, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

WHEN THE DOVES DISAPPEARED
SOFI OXANEN

ATLANTIC BOOKS 303 pp.

The Second World War was a titanic struggle between the world’s major powers fought over several continents. It impacted also on many other smaller countries drawn unwillingly into the fray. Ireland was one of the fortunate neutrals. The Baltic states were not so lucky. This novel explores the impact of the War, involving invasion, occupation, and the lengthy post war brutal subjugation of one small country, Estonia and how certain ordinary Estonians coped.

The War experience and the lengthy Soviet occupation were not easy for the million Estonians. Independent since 1920, in 1939 Estonia enjoyed a standard of living roughly on a par with other Nordic countries. In June 1940, under the terms of a secret provision in the infamous Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, it was occupied by a Soviet army of 160,000, its status as an independent country was abolished and it was incorporated into the USSR. Over the next year several thousand Estonians were murdered, at least 11,000 more deported as the Soviets set about the systematic destruction and elimination of the Estonian political and administrative classes.

This was only the start of it. In 1941 Germany attacked the USSR, occupying Estonia as its armies drove towards Leningrad. As the Soviets withdrew they murdered several thousand as part of a scorched earth policy conducted by so called destruction battalions. By 1943 half of the country’s M.P.s had been murdered by the Soviets – you can see their names and dates of death on a plaque outside Ireland’s Embassy in Tallinn. Their President died in a KGB prison “hospital” after 16 years; his chain of office has yet to be returned.

The Estonians, having greeted the Germans initially as liberators, came rapidly to realise they had traded one slave master for another. During a brutal occupation the country was administered as part of the Nazi province of Ostland. Concentration and labour camps were set up and thousands of Jews, Communists and political dissidents murdered. As under the Soviets attempts were made to conscript Estonians to fight. Later, as the tide of war turned, Estonians, finally permitted to fight on their own, tried to resist the advancing Soviets. The third city of Estonia, Narva, was levelled in a ferocious battle in 1944. Thousands of Estonians fled; many more took to the woods, where they waged a guerrilla war against the Soviets until well into the 1950’s.

With the return of the Soviets came score settling, completion of the task of liquidating the Estonian elite suspended in 1941 and actions against any alleged to have assisted the Germans. After 1945 there were mass imprisonments, many murders, deportations to Siberia, and, in March 1949, the mass deportation of 25,000 people, mainly farmers and their families ( one friend of mine, then aged six months, was among those deported and spent over a decade in Siberia), to facilitate the collectivisation of agriculture and to break the rural resistance of the “Forest Brothers.” All this out of a population of little over a million.

All told the population of Estonia is estimated to have fallen by 200,000 during and after the war years through a combination of murders ( overwhelmingly by the Soviets), casualties of war, deportations, deprivation and the estimated 80,000 who fled to Sweden and elsewhere to escape the Soviets. In the decades that followed repression continued and several hundred thousand Russian settlers were moved in, seen by Estonians as an attempt to destroy Estonian nationalism.

This is the bleak background to Sofi Oxanen’s latest book. The author, half Estonian, half Finnish, came to international recognition in 2008 with her powerful bestselling third novel, “Purge.” The award winning novel, set in the 1950s and 1992, dealt with the Soviet occupation and its immediate aftermath and explored themes of collaboration and sexual exploitation of women under the Soviets and after.

In “Purge”, Aliide, an old woman, is alienated from her neighbours in rural Estonia over perceived collaboration with the Soviets over the decades, her story as portrayed described by one critic as “an empathic treatment of all the miserable choices Estonians faced during their periods of oppression.” Then her grandniece, Zara, from Vladivostok, to where the rest of Aliide’s family were deported in the 1940s, arrives, seeking help. Zara has escaped from the Russian mafia who had sex trafficked her to Berlin and who are pursuing her. In helping her Aliide must confront her own past. The story continues through a series of flashbacks, inter alia to the 1940s and 1950s, revealing the tortuous and dark family history over the period.

“ When the Doves Disappeared” is set largely in Tallinn and concentrates on the period of German occupation and the early decades thereafter. The “Doves” of the title are the pigeons which used to congregate on Tallinn’s main square, Raekoja Platz, and which were eaten by the occupying German troops, partial to roast pigeon. The title could, at a stretch , be a metaphor for the whole horror story of Estonian history from 1939 to 1994 ( the year the Russian armies left).

The story revolves around three main characters, Roland, his cousin Edgar, and Edgar’s wife Juudit and how each coped with the Nazi and then Soviet occupations. A separate character, chiefly off-stage but highly relevant, is Roland’s fiancée Rosalie (Juudit’s cousin), who dies in mysterious circumstances soon after the Germans invade. As in “Purge,” the choices facing civilians under occupation by a murderous regime are limited and bleak, all the more so when there are two sequential murderous regimes. As in “Purge” also the story takes place through flashbacks in two different time periods, the 1940s and the 1960s, with the chapters neatly delineated by headings featuring Estonian postage stamps of each period.

During the war Roland is a staunch Estonian patriot, trained in Finland, fighting first the Soviets, then the Germans, before surfacing again as one of the Forest Brothers in the struggle against the Soviets. He is determined also to uncover the truth about Rosalie’s death. Edgar, less than enthusiastic about fighting, is gay but has not come out and is equally unenthusiastic about his marriage to Juudit. As the Germans invade, the couple become become estranged as he also separates from Roland.

While Roland goes underground Edgar reinvents himself as a collaborator, adopting a German name and working for the Germans identifying for the Nazis those who had supported the Soviets as well as Estonian anti-Nazi dissidents. Eventually he encounters Juudit again to find her life has also changed. For Juudit, tasked by Roland to cultivate an SS officer, has fallen in love and begun an affair with an SS-Hauptsturmfuhrer (Captain), with whom she moves in. She is reviled by other Estonians for doing so but, in the words of one reviewer, is a complex character, “one whom it is difficult to like but easy to understand.” After a hiatus, she resumes working for the underground, while clinging to the hope that she and her lover can somehow escape their predicament and the war.

The sections set in the 1960s portray a different scene. Estonia is by now firmly a part of the Soviet Union, the “Estonian SSR.” Hopes of independence and the insurrection of the Forest Brothers have been firmly and brutally snuffed out. Through the eyes of Edgar the ruthless and comprehensive nature of the crushing of Estonian resistance by the Soviets is revealed. For Edgar has done another volte face and is now a Soviet apparatchik, “Comrade Parts.” His skin was saved by the compromising documents he had kept from his time working for the Germans. His job now is spying on his fellow Estonians. He is tasked also with writing a pseudo history of Estonia during the war, alleging crimes against real and imagined Estonian patriots. The task, and the language he employs are truly Orwellian.

Edgar is, moreover, now living once again with Juudit, who has become an alcoholic, riven by depression and guilt. Yet Estonian nationalism is not dead. Edgar conducts spurious correspondence with Estonian emigres hoping to find clues for his KGB masters regarding any remaining dissidents including Roland, who has been very careful to avoid capture. He is also monitoring some young radical students who gather regularly at Tallinn’s Café Moskva, (still today a favourite haunt of Tallinn’s young people). Edgar continues to hope for that one major stroke of luck which will cement his position as the novel builds towards a dramatic and revealing denouement.

“ Doves” is another excellent novel by Oxanen, taking the reader through a dark period of a country’s history and pointing up the dilemmas and moral choices facing ordinary people in extraordinary times. It is multi-layered, with many twists and surprises, superb descriptions of war and its side effects and all too believable characters. The translation by Lola Rogers merits special praise. Highly recommended.

S.F.
4/7/15

AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION: TWO REFERENDA; TWO CLEAR RESULTS 1507 LXXVII

June 29, 2015 by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION: TWO REFERENDA; TWO CLEAR RESULTS

Ireland voted in late May on two proposed constitutional amendments.

One was decisively carried, one even more decisively rejected. The turnout for both referenda was 60.5%.The successful referendum was on same sex marriage, where 62% of those voting approved adding to the constitution the words “ marriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinction as to their sex.” The rejected proposal (73% voting against) was to lower the minimum age at which a citizen could become President from 35 to 21.

Much has been made of the “youth vote” in pushing through the same sex proposal, with reports of many thousands of young people forced to emigrate by the recession returning to vote. Whether this was critical is doubtful given the margin of victory; moreover this “youth vote” wasn’t prompted to back similarly the other proposal – one which appeared pitched at the young!

A more prosaic interpretation is that the results show on the one hand how Ireland has changed in a generation, on the other that the electorate remains hard headed and realistic enough to identify an attempt to con it. Central to the success of the same sex issue were the twin factors that, for most people, what was involved was the logical extension of equal treatment to a minority group and that voting for this did not affect negatively the rights of the majority.
Central to the defeat of the presidential age proposal was the perception that it was unnecessary, illogical (why not 18, the voting age, rather than 21?) irrelevant and was being presented as significant and fulfilling a commitment to Constitutional reform in the Government’s 2011 programme.

The 1937 Constitution is very much a child of Ireland of the 1930s, reflecting predominantly Catholic ideology, values and social thinking of the time, with a revanchist territorial claim thrown in for good measure. Amending it has in the main aimed at modernising or eliminating some of the provisions ( including that territorial claim!) to reflect social and political change since the 1930’s. Two thirds of the thirty five amendments have been passed (or rejected) in the last twenty five years, covering social issues such as divorce, abortion and now same sex marriage as well as the evolving nature of our relationship with the European Union.

Before 1972 there were only three attempts at change, all proposed by Fianna Fail and all rejected by an electorate which saw them as politically motivated and designed to shore up Fianna Fail’s political fortunes. Two, in 1959 and 1968, were attempts to change the voting system by abolishing proportional representation, something which, in the short term at least, was perceived as favouring the largest party, Fianna Fail. The third, also in 1968, was an attempt to give greater representation to rural constituencies where traditionally Fianna Fail was strongest.

The 1970’s saw five amendments, all carried decisively, including crucially, the decision, very much in Ireland’s national interest, to join Europe in 1972. 83% voted Yes in what was a massive turnout of 70.9%, the highest ever percentage vote since the Constitution was adopted. Another huge majority in 1973 saw the voting age reduced to 18.

The four referenda in the 1980’s were all significant and marked a changing Ireland. In 1982, the “Eighth Amendment” entrenched the statutory prohibition on abortion into the Constitution by acknowledging “ the right to life of the unborn, with due regard to the equal right to life of the mother.” As the Irish Supreme Court had been following some decisions of the US Supreme Court on human rights issues, the referendum was an attempt by the right to head off any possible future Irish Supreme Court decision along the lines of Roe v. Wade in the US, which had opened the door to abortion . The issue has remained contentious here, inter alia over what constitutes the equal right to life of the mother, and a further four referenda have been held since. The most recent, in 2002, was a second attempt to prevent the risk of suicide by the mother being invoked as grounds for an abortion, and was defeated by only 10,000 votes. Given the proximity of Britain, where thousands of Irish women travel annually for legal abortions, there is a certain unreality about the debate.

1986 saw a heavy defeat of a proposal to permit divorce. Those opposed proved adept at whipping up fears of destitute first wives and pointed to the lack of support legislation, including financial provision, in the event of marital breakdown. It was 1995 before a divorce proposal – the Fifteenth Amendment – squeaked through by a mere 9,000 votes. Significantly the safeguard support mechanisms had been enacted in the meantime.

Amendments since have involved tidying up, improving governance and dealing with unintended consequences of legislation. Other amendments have included extending the vote to UK citizens (1984), restricting the right to bail (1996) and cementing abolition of the Death Penalty (2002). There was even one in 2011 providing for the reduction in the salaries of judges . An amendment in 2001 permitted Ireland to ratify the Statute of the International Criminal Court.

Abortion and divorce aside, the landmark referenda of recent decades have been regarding Northern Ireland and a succession of plebiscites on the changing nature of Ireland’s relationship with the European Union . The Nineteenth Amendment in May 1998 ratified overwhelmingly (94% Yes) the Peace Treaty on Northern Ireland, known as the Good Friday Agreement. With it Ireland dropped the territorial claim to Northern Ireland.

More problematic have been the eight referenda on Europe held since 1987. As the original European Community has grown and evolved, inter alia making incremental inroads on Irish sovereignty, hard core opposition here has grown. While a solid majority remains supportive of EU membership, recognising there is no realistic alternative, “getting out the vote” has become a factor, particularly with little largesse coming from Brussels compared to a generation ago.

The numbers voting No have risen steadily, from 325,000 in 1987 to some 630,000 in 2012, a percentage increase among those voting from 30% to almost 40% . Mismanagement and complacency by the government during the Nice and Lisbon campaigns actually led to referenda defeats in 2002 and 2008, causing considerable embarrassment and necessitating re-runs, loudly and hotly criticised as undemocratic. The alternatives were unthinkable.

An attempt to abolish the Senate, an initiative of the Taoiseach, which would really have rocked the political system, was narrowly defeated in 2013. This followed an earlier rejection of a proposal to increase the powers of Parliamentary Committees of Enquiry. The lessons here, and over the Europe results, is that the Irish electorate are sceptical of the motives of politicians and should never be taken for granted . Reasonable proposals properly presented will always get a fair hearing.

An additional interesting and perhaps significant pointer to how the Irish see themselves in the world and how they see others was the 2004 vote on Irish Nationality where, in a 60% poll, 79% voted to remove the automatic right to Irish citizenship to anyone born in Ireland. Henceforth one parent must be, or be entitled to be, an Irish citizen.

19/06/15