Month: September 2012

THE GREYING OF THE GREEN

Detailed data from last year’s census is now starting to emerge. It makes fascinating reading, revealing  a country with a vibrant growing population despite the economic downturn and the re-emergence of emigration.  It highlights the effects of recent inward migration (on which I have written previously) and also traces the (very )gradual greying of the Irish population. Those interested further should consult either of the two Irish websites cso.ie or airo.ie.

The population of  the 26 Counties is now officially  4,588,252, the highest for 150 years. It has risen by over 25% since 1996 (five times the rate of the rest of the EU) and there is as yet no sign of a slowdown; indeed there has been a 7.6% increase since 2006, despite our economic woes. Moreover, most of this latest  increase is due to the number of births since 2006, which at 365,000, far exceeds the number of deaths, 141,000. The latest data paints a complicated picture, containing several elements. Apologies for what follows; perhaps Mark Twain was right!

Firstly migration, which has, not surprisingly, been the focus of a lot of attention. Non-nationals at 544,000 now account for 12% of the population. And it’s now official. Poles are Ireland’s largest national minority, at 122,600, more than the British. The number has increased by 94 % since 2006, with the number of women increasing by 142% and Polish born children by 300% to 14,000. These figures exclude 10,000 children born here to Poles. The next two largest communities are from the Baltic republics of Lithuania (36,683)  and Latvia (20,593), both up by 50%. The number of Romanians, at 17,304, has increased by 124%, and seems set to increase further, given that Romanians will only get unrestricted entry after January 2014. The Indian community now numbers 17,000, having doubled in five years..

Elsewhere, the number of Brazilians recorded was 8700, up 100%, while the figure for people from Mauritius, at 2844 was up by 344% ! (Interestingly the flow of arrivals from Mauritius has dried up since a visa requirement was introduced in January 2011, while the numbers arriving from Brazil continue to increase.) Nigerians remain by far the largest African community, up 8 % at 17,600, in a total of 41,642, while the number of Filipinos, at 12,791 (34% higher) now exceeds the number of resident Chinese in a declared Asian figure of 65,579. The figure for US citizens, at 11,015, is down by 11.7%. The number of Travellers, at 29,573, is up 32%, though this figure is already being disputed as an underestimate by Traveller groups.

Does this mean Ireland is now a fully-fledged multi-ethnic, multi-cultural society? You be the judge. Nine out of ten of the population are Irish, while the number of persons declaring themselves Catholics, at 84%,  has actually risen by 5% or 180,000, at a time when the number of regular mass goers is in decline. The increase in the number of Catholics is probably down to a combination of immigration (the staunchly Catholic Poles and Lithuanians in particular) and a growing  identification among many Irish with Catholicism  for cultural as much as religious reasons.

The number of Muslims has risen by 51% to 49,204, in total just over 1% of the population, but this represents only an extra 17,000 people in five years, about the same as the combined increase in “Other Christian “ and “Pentacostal” numbers. This is less than the increase in Orthodox Christians, up by 24,425, or 117%, to 45,223. Most other religions are also up significantly with the exception of Methodists, who have shown a sharp fall in numbers from over 12,000 to under 7,000. The numbers declaring no religion have risen by 45% to 270,000.

The shift in the cause of the population increase since 2006 has been dramatic. Between 2002 and 2006 net immigration accounted for two-thirds of the rise. The next five years have seen an almost exact reversal, with natural increase now supplying two thirds of the growth. The  Irish fertility rate has remained constant at 2.1% throughout the last decade – one of the highest in Europe – but the numbers of women of child bearing age have increased, and births since 2006 have totalled 365,000, a healthy average annual 73,000.The upward trend in population seems set to continue with Ireland’s national average age, at 36.1,  among the lowest in Europe. Moreover, despite the recession, while emigration has resumed, immigration has not stopped; in the year to April 2011 20,000 Irish nationals and 34,000 non-nationals relocated to Ireland.

It’s now possible to get some perspective also on the changing, gently greying, age profile of the Irish population over the last generation or so.  The population (and arguably the country)  hit a low in 1961 of 2,818,341. This included 877,000 under 15 years, around 30%, but only 392,000 between 15 and 25, and 315,000 over the age of 65, around 11%,  reflecting at once the large sizes of Irish families, the massive emigration of young adults up to 1960, and the effects of emigration and unhealthy lifestyles on life expectancy among the older sections of the population. This phenomenon, the very young comprising a large percentage of the population and the old a very much smaller one, was almost unique in Europe, and has taken half a century to change significantly.

The number of those under 15 peaked in 1981 at 1,043,729,  still around 30% of a population which had risen 22% in 20 years to 3,443,405, while  the figure for over 65s, though up to 368,954, remained stubbornly low at 11%,  as the effects of earlier emigration continued to work through the system.  Even in 1996, while the numbers over 65 had risen to 413,882, this still represented only just over 11% of a total population of 3,626,087. Here, however, the numbers under 15 had fallen to 859,424, under 24% of the total, representing some emigration but also heralding significant social change, with a marked rise in the status of women, increased availability of contraception and a shift to smaller families. The 2011 figures show this trend continuing, with 979,590 aged under 15, now down to 21.34% of the total.

On the face of it, the number of over 65s, while now up to 535,393, still seems modest enough at 11.67%. The trend towards greyness only becomes apparent when the figures for the preceding age group, 45-64, are also examined. There are now 1,042,879 in this category, up from  590,402 in 1981, but representing a percentage rise from 17 to almost 23% of the total. As these age, so the percentage of the over 65s will rise in tandem, bringing Ireland more into line with other European countries.

Further reports are to appear in the coming months, covering, inter alia, in greater detail, population distribution, housing, employment, health, cultural and religious diversity. These are important and will form the information base for the government’s strategic planning in areas such as education, health care and provision for the elderly. Right now the current data offers, notably, a positive snapshot of Ireland and her people as a timely counterweight to the prevailing climate of negativity.

SILVER LININGS

One of Ireland’s leading left wing politicians  expressed bemusement recently as to why the Irish were not out in the street protesting, like the Greeks. I pointed to a possible reason last time. Remember  Sherlock Holmes and the dog that, recognising his master, didn’t bark in the night?.

The answer to the question is that Ireland – and the Irish – are still pretty well off. Partly this is artificial – we are still borrowing way beyond our means to fund  generous welfare benefits. But beyond that, the impact of the cuts and austerity measures which began four years ago have been nothing compared to the effect of those introduced in Greece. Moreover, despite the erosion of the tax base, enough of it remains and the culture is by and large one of tax compliance, so our fiscal position, though not good, has stabilised.

Despite some cuts,  Ireland’s complicated web of interlinked welfare payments has scarcely been touched, so people still have (some) money in their pockets. The absence of social discord has been helped, in effect, by the relatively large transfers from the moderately well off to the slightly worse off, cemented and enhanced during the tiger years, howls from the left notwithstanding.

Indeed the Irish Left is casting around for an issue that might ignite and is currently pinning its hopes on the attempt to introduce a property tax. Reflect on this one: the Left, advocates of greater social equality,  is mounting a campaign against a pretty modest property tax, beginning (year one) at $130! How this highly unpopular and emotive issue unfolds will be fascinating.

While there is certainly little discernible objective improvement  in our economic circumstances, as the government enters its second year in office, the general mood appears to be slightly more upbeat. This could simply be because there is a feeling that at least now there is a government, in contrast to the final year of  its shell-shocked predecessor! Also that, for most, the situation has not panned out quite as badly  as feared. This also despite the fact that there IS to be a referendum  on the Fiscal Compact treaty this year, date not yet known – a prospect normally regarded with foreboding.

Events elsewhere may also have played a part. Certainly watching Greece seems to have proved cathartic. Events in Libya and Syria may also have helped, reminding us Irish that we have things to be thankful about. We live in a democracy; we can, and have, changed our government without upheaval and bloodshed. We have had an uninterrupted democratic system of government since the 1920s.

The verdict on the government’s first year is broadly neutral. To adapt a Bertie Ahern election slogan: “A start made; much more to be done”. Promises were made, but  only the most disingenuous expected them to be carried out once the new government was mugged by the reality of having to govern. On some things the government has pleaded for more time; as time passes it will be watched closely on these for specific performance. Should there  be some deal on our scheduled debt repayments (the promissory notes), which as I write is starting to appear likely, but which requires good will from our creditors, the government will benefit from the public’s all-round feeling of relief.

The domestic  economy , though flat, is not getting any worse and job creation, in the form of FDI, continues at an encouraging rate. It may not be enough to dent the unemployment figures, the legacy of the expansion of the workforce during the tiger years, with structural unemployment seemingly destined to be with us for years to come. But again, it’s not as bad as Greece, or Spain. And exports are booming, not just the pharmaceuticals and hi-tech, but also from the  agricultural sector.

The government’s jobs initiatives can be taken with a shovel of salt, but there has been some progress. Steps have been taken to improve our competitiveness by cutting costs, despite hiking back up the minimum wage, and initiatives to encourage tourism seem to be working. Ireland is now good value and tourist numbers are up. There is a major push to encourage the diaspora to come and visit in 2013. There is a new focus on the BRIC countries and other new target economies.

The point also seems to be registering more and more that, over and above the bank debt, we still have, and must solve, the much larger and growing debt burden caused by the structural budget deficit. There’s clearly an aggregate effect and an aggravation of the interest burden when the bank element is factored in. Hence the importance of any deal, however small, on the promissory notes. But few seriously expect the rest of Europe and the IMF to discount or write off  the sovereign loans granted to cover our day to day spending. Watching the Greeks twist and turn has concentrated a lot of minds here.

None of the above should obscure the fact that for the many who have lost their jobs and/ or are struggling with mortgage debt and negative equity times are hard and not scheduled to get softer anytime soon. The mortgage issue in particular  has not improved one whit, with the numbers seriously in arrears or impaired now touching 15% of all mortgages. The housing market is frozen and property prices continue to fall, preventing any improvement. Whether and how this problem is resolved could well prove the defining issue for the government and next year could be the crunch.

Even on the referendum the point seems to be dawning on the public already that this one is different. There is no “loss of sovereignty issue” for the opposition to bandy about, no fantasy that we have a veto power if we don’t like it. If we vote No, the treaty will come into effect anyway once eleven other states ratify it. We will be outside its provisions, including access to the new greatly enhanced bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, with consequent implications for our future borrowing ability.

There is no telling how the referendum debate will develop. On past form other issues are likely to be dragged in, or at any rate to form the basis on which voters choose. A deal on debt would in theory greatly boost the prospects for a Yes. Who knows what arguments the No lobby will dredge up? Whatever happens, this time the gun is firmly in our own hands, pointed at our temple, and if we choose to pull the trigger the only casualty will be us.

There is a certain irony in that many commentators feel that the whole treaty is something of a Potemkin Village – a measure designed to reassure the German public that its Euro partners will be fiscally and financially prudent but actually having little practical application. Put simply it is  the latest in a line of political solutions to an economic and fiscal problem. Yet perhaps this is to do  European democracy a disservice. Above all there appears to be a steady resolve not to let the whole edifice collapse. To echo Virgil: “ Tantae molis erat Romanum condere gentum.”

ANGELS WOULD WEEP

As I write, the issue of whether Ireland will hold another referendum on Europe has yet to be decided, with battle lines being drawn. Should one prove necessary, the context will be different to previous referenda. While there is suspicion across Europe that the new  fiscal compact treaty is merely yet another European half measure – this one designed primarily to bolster German Chancellor Merkel domestically – and that the Euro crisis will continue to run, one thing IS clear. The treaty will enter into force when ratified by a certain number of Euro area member states. Ireland will not have a veto. The domestic debate promises even more heat than usual.

Meanwhile the chronic condition of the Irish body politic and its quirky social and economic  norms have been  exposed in earnest in the last few weeks. First was the mini fiasco of the New Year’s Greetings sent to 150,000 people on pensions by the Revenue Commissioners , informing them that they probably owed  more tax and that extra deductions from pensions would start immediately.

Those targeted were  the minority of people on occupational pensions who have  not previously declared their state old age pension or some other state benefit,  payments which are taxable. Some of the letters were sent erroneously, prompting an apology from the Revenue chairman for the “confusion and distress” caused.

The issue posed the classic dilemma for the Irish politician, hence the embarrassed and rather self-righteous reaction from most. Of course  everyone should be tax compliant, but we’d better not upset or distress unnecessarily the  poor pensioners. Revenue, whose statutory duty is to collect tax that is due, were castigated for insensitivity in timing ( the New Year)  and further attacked for getting it wrong in a significant minority of cases.

Revenue are not paid to be nice – if they were, the only people paying tax would be the PAYE mugs who have no option.  It would appear that most retired persons have been tax compliant, but a minority have not, with, per the Chairperson of Revenue,  a significant amount of revenue involved. Revenue’s statutory obligation was to rectify this and pursue arrears if necessary. Whatever about the timing, it is not hard to imagine the reaction from everyone already paying their taxes in full to any softly  softly approach to tax dodgers. And the Revenue will repay, usually quite swiftly, tax over-deducted.

But there is more. These letters issued less than two months after the Government said that child benefit payments could not be taxed or means-tested because the Revenue Commissioners and the Department of Social Protection files were not shared, that their computers “did not talk to each other”. It now transpires that 560,000 social welfare records with pension details were sent to Revenue’s computer system. The Revenue Commissioners were able to match up these records and come up with 115,000 or so cases where it appeared social welfare pensions had not been declared either at all or in full by the pensioner or that the pensioner’s circumstances had otherwise changed.

So at least the computers can now communicate! This should remove one of the procedural obstacles cited for not tackling child benefit payments on a rational basis and hopefully lead to early reform to concentrate payments where they are most needed.

The need to do something significant about Ireland’s overgenerous welfare payments     (because we have to borrow to sustain them) was underlined some weeks later by the curious case of “Magda”. Magda, not her real name, is a member of Ireland’s largest national minority – the Poles – and came to Ireland in 2006. She settled in Donegal, working until 2009, after which jobs dried up and she went on the dole. She was one of several Poles living in Ireland interviewed some weeks ago by a Polish newspaper.

A poor translation of the interview was used in a newspaper story here to suggest that Magda was a dole sponger who was living off the system and who sneered at Donegal. Cue the predictable outrage and an offer by a Donegal Labour Senator to pay her fare home. Cue also a rapid reaction from, inter alia, the Polish Ambassador, as well as other Poles disputing the story.

The most cogent point put was that Poles who had come to Ireland, worked and paid taxes, often at jobs the Irish would not do, and then lost their jobs in the recession, were quite entitled to claim available welfare benefits here. Indeed. Before the week was out the record had been corrected, Magda’s good name more than restored and the Senator had apologized.

Not quite end of story. Many of the figures Magda had quoted were correct, together with the disincentives for those on benefit to return to work  which she identified. Magda receives almost $360 per week from the state, made up of unemployment assistance of $250, rent of $80, and in winter, $25 towards heating. She can, and does avail of free education and training courses and, when she sets up a business, which she is planning, will continue to receive benefits for a further two years.

Magda answered her own rhetorical question that it was not worth working for the minimum wage (which is back up to $11.50 per hour). The whole episode, made public only because Magda was not Irish, has shone fresh light on what is available to all under the sheer generosity of parts of Ireland’s unsustainable welfare system.

The Magda story was still in the news when it was topped by another revelation. This was the announcement that there would be a cut in the Exceptional Needs Payments provisions in respect of amounts paid towards the cost of holy communion and confirmation expenses (dresses and suits) for persons on social welfare. Last year 14,000 claimants received over $4.5 million for these expenses, at an average of $320 each. Payments are now to be vetted thoroughly and capped at under $150.

It has emerged that last year the total bill for Exceptional Needs Payments came to  $85 million, almost all paid to social welfare recipients or those working part time. In addition to payments for children’s buggies this figure included almost $12 million paid out to 7769 applicants (who received an average of $1500) to help towards furnishing their accommodation. Here also the system is to be tightened and eligibility narrowed.

These payments are in addition to rent supplements (running at almost $700 million), back to school clothing and footwear allowances and the winter fuel allowance available to Social Welfare recipients, most of whom also qualify for free medical treatment. The net effect has been to create over the years a fairly comprehensive safety net for the unemployed. The unforeseen effect has been to disincentivise those on benefits from seeking work, and to create poverty traps for many of those working on low incomes, who are excluded from many benefits ending up less well-off working than on the dole. With, in addition, the second highest minimum wage in Europe, is it any wonder that job creation is at a low ebb and unemployment remains so stubbornly high.

Angels would surely weep, if there were angels.

TILL DEBT US DO PART

2012. The Centenary of the Titanic! Let’s hope that won’t become a metaphor for Ireland or the EU this year. The actual anniversary of the sinking is mid-April. By then  we should know some details of  the proposals to save the Euro, and even whether Ireland will need a referendum to address the issue. If yes (which is my guess – if only to satisfy public demand) then winning it  becomes the political priority  for the Government.

There are  plans already for two referenda this year, one on the future of the Seanad, another on the rights of the child. Both would be popular, including from the government’s point of view (i.e. winnable) . But neither are priorities, particularly that on the Seanad; that can wait, and no energy or resources should be put into it. The child referendum issue is important, certainly, and  if one can be held , so much the better. But if there is to be a referendum on the Euro, this must assume priority. Should the Euro collapse, or should Ireland be left behind by a no vote, the  future rights of the child will be among the least of our worries.

Parking Europe, coping with Ireland’s debts is the government’s on-going domestic priority. The end of year financial figures for 2011 are now in and make for grim reading. The good news is that tax revenue has stabilised at around €34 billion (roughly $45 billion),or about the amount raised in 2004; for reference, in 2007 it was $61  billion. The bad news, however, is that expenditure for 2011 was almost $33 billion more . Even stripping out all payments to the banks (most of them once –off), the net current deficit   only actually fell  to around $21 billion. This after five severe budgets. The day to day cost of  running  the country  was some $62 billion while interest payments on the total debt were around €7 billion. Not even Mark Twain could do much about these figures.

By the Titanic anniversary  Ireland will have borrowed a further $5 billion in 2012, just to keep the country running. This has nothing to do with the bank bailout. This is the gap (roughly $400 million every week) between what the government  raises in taxes and spends on state salaries and pensions, child benefit, unemployment assistance, lone parent allowances, creaking health and education services, old age pensions and, a growth item, interest payments on the growing national debt. Clearly something must be done. Ireland cannot continue to borrow at this rate.

The government’s strategy, like that of its shell-shocked predecessor, is not to set about reducing  spending to 2004 levels in order bring finances into balance. Politics is, after all, the art of the possible. Expectations are far higher than in 2004. And a warped sense of entitlement among the public, massaged over the years by politicians, makes reconciling income with expenditure more difficult still. Expenditure and welfare payments remain  too high for the size of the economy. The gigantic red herring of the bank bailout has warped and distracted from the reality. The definable target is to get the deficit down to a “manageable” 3%, whenever.  This involves paring away at spending, while seeking to build up the tax base, incrementally,  hoping  that an economic pickup, will increase employment and tax revenue while reducing unemployment costs.

The EU and IMF, who are supplying the $400 million per week – no one else would – have bought into this, which relies on optimistic growth assumptions about the Irish and world economies. The government  will cut what it can (i.e. what is politically palatable), increase taxes where it can (again, what is palatable), cross its fingers and hope to meet the target about half way if the economy picks up. That is a very big if. Meanwhile the total owing  will grow by $24 billion this year and, even, on the government’s own optimistic projections, will continue to grow by $18 billion in 2013 and roughly $12 billion in 2014. Interest on the total debt in 2015 will be around $12 billion. Any double dip recession worldwide will see these figures worsen.

Meeting these targets, moreover, will require a succession of severe budgets, for which read more cuts and more taxes, on top of the five we have had since 2008. Frankly the omens are not good. While the 2012 budget was passed, and the ownership of economic  policy is now firmly that of the current government, it was not without hiccup and a subsequent serious dent in the government’s popularity. The budget, not something to marvel over, has already been criticised externally for taking the easy option of front loading capital expenditure cuts, packing them into 2012, despite their direct effect on employment.

There is more. To a great extent the Labour tail seems to have wagged the Fine Gael dog. The broad brush stroke approach of benefit cuts was dodged, the anticipated rise in third level registration fees was halved, and  the threshold for paying the Universal Social Charge was hiked – three strikes for Labour.  VAT and motor tax rates were increased as the major sources of additional revenue .  Again, sops to Labour since there is no VAT on most foodstuffs, and the impact  for the most part will fall on persons with higher  incomes.

All Fine Gael could point to was holding the line on income tax rates and tax bands together with a flat rate property tax of €100 per household. This last has been greeted with howls of protest from the opposition and the government is running scared enough to have flagged its intention to introduce a graduated property tax ( those in better homes paying more) earlier than intended. Clearly there is a fear that  some Labour horses – and even some Fine Gael ones – may bolt.

Moreover, failure to grasp the big nettles of benefit cuts and public sector pay and pensions entailed many minor, politically embarrassing, and damaging cuts throughout the rest of the budget to achieve the necessary overall targets. Notable here was a proposed savage cut in payments to handicapped 16 and 17 year olds, yielding peanuts financially, and less than twice the cost of the salaries of Ministerial special advisers. The government at least had the cop-on to drop this proposal forthwith. Almost equally damaging were cuts in small grant assisted local and community projects, which, as well as being targeted at the socially disadvantaged, took people off the dole.

The next budget could be make or break. All the easy choices have been taken. On the plus side more politicians and academics have been speaking out and laying emphasis on the need to do something about the structural deficit. Hopefully this will trickle down into the public consciousness sooner rather than later, to shake the sense of entitlement. On the negative side  the dark matter of  a referendum  on the Euro lies just below the horizon. Like an iceberg . Basil Fawlty once remarked “Piece of Cake; now for the hard bit.” These sentiments may well be echoed by the government  come midsummer.

A PROBLEM FOR RTE

It has not been a good few weeks for RTE, the state-owned national television station. The station is financed by revenue from the (compulsory ) television license, currently costing around $200 annually, as well as from advertising. It is, therefore, subject to the type of public scrutiny and criticism that a purely commercial station would not. Though not without its critics, RTE TV and Radio, has, with limited resources, consistently provided programming of a high standard, even measured against the yardstick set by the next – door  BBC. In the area of news and current affairs RTE has a proud record of investigative journalism, including exposing incidences of institutionalised neglect and abuse of children in their care by some of Ireland’s religious orders as well as the separate abuse of children in the Dublin archdiocese.

This record has now suffered a serious blemish with a large (reputedly seven figure) award against it over a false allegation made in its current affairs flagship programme that an Irish missionary priest, Fr. Kevin Reynolds, had raped a minor and fathered a girl by her in Kenya. The way the whole programme was conducted and screened, on the face of it beggars belief, and several investigations, both internal and external, are under way into the whole circumstances surrounding the programme and its aftermath.

The incident has been a field day for RTE’s critics and comes just after the annual publication by RTE of the salaries paid to its top employees. This event has traditionally met with widespread public criticism but the howls have been louder than ever this year given the economic climate and the latest imminent tax increases and welfare cuts. RTE did not help itself in this regard by persisting in its curious practice of publishing top salary details two years in arrears, i.e. the latest details published are for 2009.This may have had the effect formerly of camouflaging rising salaries to deflect criticism but this is now working in reverse.

The revelation that RTE’s top four highest paid each received over €500,000 ($650,000 plus) in 2009, even though these amounts were less than in 2008, did not sit well with the public which pays them. Nor have the somewhat feeble attempts by some of the individuals themselves to justify the amounts. RTE has pointed out that most of the highest paid are on contract rather than employed as salaried staff and that their contracts are set to be negotiated down substantially as they come up for renewal. We shall see on that one; there is a school of thought that questions why a publicly funded body employing many talented people should have to hire anyone on contract, let alone pay them the amounts involved.

But pay is a minor matter compared to the defining issue for RTE in 2011 – the Reynolds Affair. The saga became public with the Primetime Investigates programme “Mission to Prey”, broadcast in May which looked at allegations of sexual abuse by Irish religious working in Africa. The last few years have been open season for attacks on the Catholic Church in Ireland. The growing secularisation of Irish society, the  decline in religious observance and an influx of immigrants from different cultures denting what had been a fairly monolithic society provided the context; the shameful revelations of the many instances of betrayal of trust by the Church the content.

The sad litany of sexual abuse by priests, of institutional physical and emotional ill-treatment and neglect of children entrusted to the care of various religious orders and the existence of unsavoury institutions such as the Magdalene laundries, have received wide media coverage in recent years. An Irish government fell in1994 over a paedophile priest.  The role of the Catholic authorities, in both Ireland and Rome, in dissembling or indeed covering up for guilty priests , did not help, was the cause of an outburst from the Taoiseach against Rome several months ago and is surely at the root of the recently announced decision to close Ireland’s embassy to the Vatican.

It was inevitable that, sooner or later, attention would turn to the remaining jewel in the crown of Irish Catholicism – the Missionary Church. During the 20^th Century and up to the present, thousands of Irish priests, brothers, nuns and lay people worked as Missionaries  worldwide. Their influence on the ground was considerable, particularly in education. Interestingly, the first great generation of Kenyan Olympic athletes were educated by Irish Christian Brothers. And, as a consequence of their experiences of abject poverty on the ground in Africa, Irish religious have founded development aid organisations (example: Concern) and been prominent in fundraising  and lobbying for increased official Irish development assistance.

The RTE programme fastened on  the “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” climate of prevalent Irish  anti-clericalism. It apparently relied on a specific anonymous allegation naming  a former  missionary, Fr. Kevin Reynolds, retired, my age, and currently parish priest of Ahascragh, Co. Galway, as the father of a Kenyan girl, whose mother had been a minor when allegedly known to Fr. Reynolds. In a classic of tabloid “journalism”,  Fr. Reynolds was confronted on camera with the allegation just after  conducting a First Communion ceremony in his parish.

He was at first bemused, then amused and then shocked as he vigorously denied the accusation. When it dawned on him that the allegation would be broadcast he protested his innocence and offered a blood test. Despite this and despite a number of exchanges between Fr. Reynolds and RTE, the programme went ahead, even including in  it reference to his offer of the paternity test.

Fr. Reynolds was stood down from his ministry. He was devastated. Imagine, if you will, as I have, the effects on him of these false charges. He sought legal support, offered on a pro bono basis. The paternity test, conducted on behalf of RTE, duly took place and proved he could not have fathered the child. The alleged victim withdrew the allegation. RTE delayed releasing the blood test results to him, though at this stage, apparently, the RTE Director General offered to resign.

Fr. Reynolds eventually had his day in court.  He won, hands down, handsomely, and with a confidential massive settlement in his favour. Here we enter the theatre of the bizarre. An RTE spokesman, asked whether  heads would roll, retorted that severed heads learned nothing. An official on-the-air apology, ordered by the Court, was gabbled on air in a near indecipherable monotone. The Director General was not available for comment. It appeared that an attempt was being made to brazen the affair out.

The public was gobsmacked. Then the reaction set in. There were questions in the Dail and on air. Enquiries were ordered, by RTE, by the Broadcasting Authority. These are on-going. Those involved in the programme have stepped aside. Fr. Reynolds has been restored to his ministry. The RTE Director General eventually went on air. The apology was repeated – this time with feeling! Yet the long term effects on him are unquantifiable and hardly something money alone can redress. There are hard questions to be answered before a justice hard earned is seen to be done.

THE MAKING OF THE PRESIDENT 2011

Theodore White’s book on the 1960 election of JFK has become, rightly, a classic of political reporting . In what was a watershed election, his book changed the way U.S. politics and elections were regarded. It chronicled the changing pattern of society in the USA 50 years ago, including the way in which television had emerged as a major factor in informing and influencing public opinion..

We have just had a presidential election in Ireland, one which saw Michael D. Higgins, the veteran Labour Party politician, elected as Ireland’s eighth President, with the aid of TV. The election came towards the end of what has been a tumultuous year in Irish politics, with the previous government  dumped unceremoniously out in February. This was the first chance the electorate had to vent its feelings since, albeit for what is officially a largely ceremonial and non-political office.

The results and those of two constitutional referendums  held simultaneously are being pored over by commentators and public alike after the most extraordinary presidential election campaign Ireland has witnessed.  “Michael D.”, an intellectual from the left wing of the Labour party, ran a consistently  low key and non-controversial campaign and was always first or second in the opinion polls, which otherwise showed widely variable levels of support for his six opponents. Even when he slipped behind as polling day approached, his overall popularity ensured that, under our PR system, where second and third preferences can count, he would be there at the finish. In fact he won easily with almost 40%  as his chief rival, independent Sean Gallagher, self – destructed on national TV and radio just three days  before the vote. Shades of 1960.

The other candidates had fallen by the wayside well before. Most spectacular was the failure of Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell, who polled a miserable 6.4%. Fine Gael, as the largest party at 36% in the polls, had had high hopes of victory, but from the outset,  Mitchell, a decent but abrasive politician, failed to make an impact. Scoop Jackson’s  abortive candidacies in the 1970s come to mind.

Dana, Eurovision winner in 1970, was never going to be a serious contender, and the revelation that she had acquired US citizenship a number of years ago did not help. Mary Davis, another independent candidate,  polled well initially in an anti -establishment atmosphere, but foundered when her presence (and earnings) on a number of State Boards were publicised,  leading her to be dubbed the “Quango Queen”.  Davis and Dana each polled less than 3%.

The colourful gay Senator, David Norris, had briefly led the polls as the campaign opened. However,  his always controversial campaign was dealt a mortal blow by the revelation that he had written to the Israeli courts pleading for clemency for a former lover – and pro-Palestinian activist – convicted of statutory rape of a 15 year old boy. Norris left, then re-entered the race,  garnering sympathy by his efforts to secure, as an independent, a place on the ballot paper under Ireland’s complicated and restrictive selection procedures. Public support, however, stopped at ensuring he got on the ballot and he received  just 6.2%.

Martin McGuinness,  Sinn Fein’s very high profile candidate, had entered the race with a definite agenda. This was not to win but to maximise his party’s support as part of a medium term strategy to displace discredited Fianna Fail as the major republican party, akin to the way they had brushed aside the SDLP in Northern Ireland.  While he increased Sinn Fein’s share of the vote by almost 40% to 13.7%, there was considerable consumer resistance to McGuinness’ previous record and reputation and frank disbelief at his claim to have quit the IRA in the mid-1970s. Sinn Fein clearly has some way still to travel.

McGuinness did, however, succeed in ambushing, live on TV, the surprise pre-election frontrunner, independent Sean Gallagher. Gallagher, a former member of Fianna Fail, with an existing media profile, had come from nowhere during the campaign to enter the final week with a commanding lead in the opinion polls (40% to 25%). His appeal had in part derived from the prevailing strong anti-political party mood and on the perception that his active involvement with Fianna Fail had been slight.  However, during the last TV debate, three days before the vote, confronted by a  McGuinness allegation  that he had been chief organiser for a  $7000 a plate Fianna Fail fund raising dinner, Gallagher first equivocated and then contradicted himself.

The truth as it emerged was somewhat  less dramatic  but certainly showed Gallagher to have been very  much politically involved with Fianna Fail.  This was compounded by  unconvincing responses to separate technical questions on transactions in some of his companies’ accounts. A professional politician might have winged it. Gallagher did not. It was enough to burst the Gallagher bubble and his support ebbed rapidly. In the event, he finished a creditable second with 28.5%.

Conclusions are already being drawn, not necessarily all correct. What IS beyond doubt is that the electorate is volatile, subject to rapid mood swings and prepared to punish on a whim. This was further emphasised by the close last minute defeat of a government sponsored referendum to establish political tribunals of enquiry. The election of Michael D. does not demonstrate  a shift to the left, more that he was the one where positives most outweighed negatives. And, without Gallagher’s  TV debacle, he would probably not have won.

Clearly Fine Gael did very badly, and its candidate flopped also in the day’s separate by election. Yet whatever about the candidate’s shortcomings, the party still has to grasp that the last general election was not so much won by Fine Gael as lost by Fianna Fail, and that it must keep working hard, and in touch with the grassroots, to cement its first place position. With a tough budget pending this could prove difficult, particularly with Sinn Fein and the assorted left yapping at the government’s heels.

What of Fianna Fail? Arguably  Sean Gallagher could be seen as a surrogate Fianna Fail candidate and the aggregate of  his and McGuinness’ vote actually comes close to that secured by  Fianna Fail in 2007. Sinn Fein failed to make much progress in its bid to supplant Fianna Fail nationally, while in the separate by-election  the Fianna Fail candidate polled surprisingly well. The jury on the “republican party” remains out.

A final point. All the candidates were subjected to unprecedented media scrutiny, pressures and demands for commitments from lobbies. Some were asked at one point whether they would use the Presidential residence to house  people rendered temporarily homeless when their apartment complex was vacated for fire safety reasons. Other equally inappropriate issues were  raised with the hapless candidates. Several were asked whether, if elected, they would help empty commodes when officially visiting hospitals. These questions were put, in all seriousness, to candidates running for election to be Ireland’s Head of State. Michael D, in his response, restored some perspective (and gained some plaudits) when he stated he would do what the Irish President was expected to do. He will maintain the dignity of the office. Of that we can be sure.

CRYSTAL  BALL GAZING

A favourite story of mine concerns teaching a horse to talk. The story occurs in various forms but is usually attributed to a character in Islamic folklore, Nasruddin. The story concerns a man who has offended or outraged a king and is ordered to be put to death.  He pleads for his life and tells the king that, if spared for a year he will teach the king’s horse to talk. The king accepts the offer but promises a worse death one year on if the man fails to deliver..

The man is upbraided by his friends for his foolishness. He responds:  “I have gained a year. In that year I might die. The king might die. The horse might die. The king might change his mind. And who knows….I might even teach the horse to talk.” The moral being that much can happen in a year. The corollary is that forecasting what will happencan be difficult.

Take the Irish Presidential election. By the time you read this Ireland will have a new President. The race at this stage is too close to call with seven candidates and given  our quirky  electoral system. It has been fascinating. The last two Presidents have, with style and energy, transformed a role that is largely ceremonial, raising the stakes for all candidates this time round. The attempt by Sinn Fein to supplant Fianna Fail as the major opposition force by running its strongest candidate , Martin McGuiness , has added to the contest.

Indeed  who wins is just one of the interesting aspects of the campaign. The results, including the transfers between the candidates, will be studied closely to see whether  the remarkable outcome of the general election last February was a once-off or whether it marked a sea-change in Irish politics. Together with the accompanying by-election –to  fill the seat vacated by Brian Lenihan’s death (what had been Fianna Fail’s only seat left in Dublin) – the Presidential poll gives the first opportunity to stocktake. There are signs that the Teflon coating on the new government is starting to crack as the first painful budget approaches with its room for manoeuvre circumscribed.

Certainly there is a new volatility among a large section of the Irish electorate, a willingness to be ultra – critical and to “throw the bums out” if they are perceived to have failed to deliver. In February this led to a collapse in the Fianna Fail vote, with much of its traditional support seceding along class lines, middle class to Fine Gael, working class to Labour, republicans to Sinn Fein.

Since then Fianna Fail has signally failed to recover and has seen its support decline further in the polls, culminating in its decision not to contest the Presidential election. In vain has the party leadership pointed out that the new government is doing little beyond following the Fianna Fail blueprint for economic recovery. So far the electorate has seen through that one – the programme for recovery, negotiated with EU and IMF guns to the head, would never have been necessary in the first place had Fianna Fail not wrecked the economy.

Fianna Fail now faces a challenge for its self-proclaimed Republican soul, this time in a head to head with Sinn Fein which is also stealing what is left of its populist quasi left-wing appeal. It can do nothing about it as it still tarred with the brush of economic mismanagement as well as the harsh programme of recovery. The omens do not appear good.  Already some analysts are drawing analogies with what happened in Northern Ireland, where Sinn Fein has shouldered aside the SDLP. Sinn Fein has a formidable party machine and  a hard –headed leadership. And, it should not be forgotten, two decades ago a sizeable rump of the political wing of the Official IRA began the odyssey that led to membership of a government coalition (as the Democratic Left), before eventually merging with the Labour Party, where its leading members soon rose to prominence. Could this process be about to be repeated, ceteris paribus?

Lest we forget, however, these events in Ireland have a slightly “phoney war” feel to them They are taking place against the background of the on-going  uncertainty  in the international economy  We have our own problems, and we are grappling with them. Indeed we’ve earned brownie points for being the good guys and taking our medicine within the EU,  unlike the Greeks. The current popular line is that Ireland will be well placed to take advantage of the world economic recovery, when it comes. In one form or another all the political parties buy into this line.

Whether we can deal with the debt mountain tends to be glossed over, or, in a classic example of doublethink, our debt is dismissed as being something that will be subsumed in the new arrangements to follow a realignment of the world financial situation. This may well be, but there seems little or no appreciation of, and certainly no debate on, the collateral damage for Ireland that any such realignment would entail or, indeed of the type of catastrophic global economic situation which would necessitate such a realignment.

The Left, with Sinn Fein as cheerleader in chief,  has embraced with enthusiasm the  localised alternative of a national debt default. This tends to be viewed through Micawberish spectacles, an approach reinforced, up to now, by the perceived pussyfooting approach of the EU heavy hitters to the struggles of Greece actually to implement a rolling programme of austerity.  The grim reality of what was involved for ordinary people when Argentina defaulted, or when the Russian economy collapsed, has had little airing here. What happened in a remote country far away could never happen to Ireland!  Sadly, it could.

Here again crystal ball gazing can prove difficult. The international economy may well  go into meltdown. As the cliché would have it we are now in uncharted waters. And if the world economy does collapse the next generation of economic commentators and pundits will point to the events of the last three years- since Lehman collapsed – and will conclude that the signs were there for all to see, that there was  a sequence of events almost teleological in nature which brought about the collapse. Frankly the only things  clear at the moment are that the future is a hidden book and that the major  political leaders worldwide are agreed only on their fear of the unknown and what the future may bring.

Much can happen in a year. But events move in flux and do not fit neatly into a rigid timeframe. Greece may well default over the next twelve months, but the process will have begun before and the consequences will  persist after that year. Ireland seems to have bottomed out economically in some respects but the when and how of recovery is contingent on many factors. We may get a helping hand  – Eurobonds or a common Eurozone debt have been talked about. There has even been reference to the origins of the Dollar. But political problems remain – almost as formidable as teaching a horse to talk.

YOU READ IT HERE FIRST

Hemingway’s  comment that people go bankrupt slowly at first , but then speed up, is beginning to have a certain resonance in Ireland. Ireland’s developing mortgage crisis, about which I first wrote in August 2010, has moved firmly to the centre of the political stage over the last few weeks.

The writing has been on the wall for some time but the latest quarterly figures have concentrated minds,  on the problem at least. At the end of June,  55,763 residential mortgages were at least 90 days in arrears (7.2% of the total), with 40,040 over six months in arrears. A further 69,837 mortgages had been “restructured”, i.e. some deal had been worked out between lender and borrower, whether switching temporarily to interest only payments,  lengthening the mortgage term, or some other form of (temporary) relief for the borrower. In other words, roughly one in seven mortgages are running on empty.

Those affected are not sub-prime borrowers. Cut backs, short time or the loss of one or both household incomes has left thousands unable to meet heavy mortgage commitments entered into when credit was cheap. Selling is not an option as the property market has dried up and any property bought since 2002  is in negative equity. The debt left after resale – even were that possible – would remain as a burden on the borrower.

None of this is new. I wrote about the potential consequences last year, when  the number six months in arrears was around 25, 000, pointing out that it was extremely unlikely that any economic recovery would come quickly enough , or be extensive enough, to throw them a lifeline. I asked whether Irish society could deal with 25,000 repossessions, evictions or bankrupcies and forecast the issue would come to a head towards the end of 2011.

The last government was grappling with more pressing macroeconomic problems and confined itself on mortgages to postponing the day of reckoning. It encouraged a moratorium on repossessions and negotiations between the principals, kicking the can down the road in the hope that  something would turn up. An “expert group” reported but ruled out any form of debt forgiveness.

Well, nothing has turned up and we are now edging towards the end of 2011. The number six months in arrears is 50% higher. There is no economic recovery in sight. The number of repossessions and court proceedings remains low, but is increasing. Interest rates have risen. The mortgage issue has now reached the critical mass at which it becomes a focus for public attention.

Moreover, the public mood has changed, battered by three years  of belt tightening, with even more to come. The middle classes are now being affected. People who could comfortably cover their mortgage repayments this time last year are now struggling to cope, have exhausted most of whatever financial fat they might have had, and are now worrying about what will happen next. And these are the ones who are actually paying their mortgages.

The public have also realised that kicking out Fianna Fail has solved little. The economic mess remains. The realisation is dawning that after the excesses of the Tiger era we have, collectively, to bite the bullet of harsh fiscal measures to restore the public finances. The issue now is who pays what, in taxes or cuts and what has become very clear is that everyone will  seek to hold on grimly to what they have in what is seen as a zero sum game. So far the new government has had broad support but the next three months will see it’s mettle tested, when it has to announce further cuts and tax increases.

The options over the mortgage issue remain unchanged from last year . Do nothing and watch the problem grow; it has. Encourage dialogue between lender and borrower to “restructure” the mortgage, in effect a type of temporary placebo, leaving the debt unaltered in the hope that something will turn up; this has been  happening – but to what end, apart from staving off repossession (i.e. eviction), and for how long? And nothing has turned up.

Deals of a permanent nature, with the bank agreeing privately to write off some of the mortgage debt (i.e. whatever is left owing after the property has been sold and the debtor squeezed of any other assets) are also reportedly happening in a small number of cases. This is currently being touted as the least bad way forward. But how realistic a solution is this unless the banks are leaned on, heavily? What is in it for them?  Disposing of properties at even 50 % below the peak price is not easy, with would – be purchasers finding credit difficult to get.

The elephant in the room remains debt write-off; “forgiveness”. The battle lines were drawn on this one last year as well. Those who are paying their mortgages (five out of six), or who have no mortgage, are clearly unwilling to agree to bail out those having problems. Any official endorsement  of the concept carries with it the obvious risk of a stampede to take advantage and the sheer impossibility of separating the can’t pays from the won’t pays. Who would continue to pay if they could avoid it ?And, overlaying this is the grating cloak of moral superiority worn by many of those not affected.

The government knows it must do something (40,000 repossessions are simply not on). The  report of another expert group is imminent,  after which some action can be expected. But what? Ministerial pronouncements have concentrated on the need to preserve the family home – but most of the mortgages in difficulty are family homes – maybe not the dream home but the place of abode just the same. There is certainly no talk of doing anything to help those who bought investment properties. Will families be helped rather than young singles or childless couples? These are thorny issues indeed.

There is no neat solution. The cost of the bank bailout – corporate debt forgiveness with a vengeance – has snookered the government financially. One leading player remarked to me several years ago that “We had to get the banks moving again”. It hasn’t worked. Except in so far as they have been resuscitated to resume their more objectionable practices. If people overborrowed, the banks were equally complicit in over-lending. The public perception is that the banks have weaseled out of their co-responsibility.

This is surely the time for some lateral, and tough, thinking . They are our banks, bought metaphorically with our blood. The housing market is shot. The property escalator does not function. This paralysis extends beyond those in mortgage trouble. The banks have a key role to play in the economy, granted. But  the government has a much greater one and has society as a whole to consider. One thing is certain. The situation will not improve if left to the banks; their dismal history demonstrates this.  A new body with powers to compel the banks to negotiate equitably has been mooted. The government should ensure that any such body is properly empowered and resourced.How the government handles the mortgage issue could be one of it’s defining moments.

THE BIG PICTURE … AND THE SMALL

A silly season story to make you weep. Retiring employees of FAS, the already discredited Irish  state training agency, receive up to seven weeks extra paid holidays during each of their final two years, to help them prepare for retirement (!) No wonder Ireland’s economic situation is sometimes characterised as critical but not serious.

The Big Picture is now with us. In the context of the tremors coursing through the world economy, Ireland’s economic problems, real or otherwise, represent small beer indeed.  Who can tell what will be the outcome of the current world wide economic upheaval? Will the international economy stutter on? Will the euro survive? Politicaly, what will happen in the Middle East? Will democracy prevail – eventually  – in Libya and Syria? What then? Will the Arab Spring spread to the Gulf, to Saudi Arabia? Will the pundit who forecast that in a year or two the southern rim of the Mediterranean would be one Islamic state be proved correct? And what about the price of oil?

Thus far the big picture has helped . The need for Europe’s big states to focus on protecting the Euro has subsumed Ireland’s problems into the bigger euro whole ( w optional!). The immediate interim solutions, a second bailout for Greece and moves towards new fiscal mechanisms, have, as a by-product, lowered the interest rate payable by Ireland  on monies borrowed. The government has been handed, on a plate, one of it’s chief election commitments. The net effect will be a saving of $1 billion plus annually on interest payable, giving slightly more wiggle room  on the financial bind. (The saving does not mean more money; merely that the cost of our ongoing borrowing  simply to run the country will be slightly less.)

It must be comforting for the Government, just six months in, to have this international economic background as a fallback. There is still mileage out of blaming Fianna Fail for the domestic situation and the harsh measures pending, but there is now the added comfort of external economic factors. Should the Irish economy continue to stagnate, and unemployment persist at current levels, the international economic uncertainty can be cited as hindering recovery. Moreover, the praise and plaudits we are receiving internationally for policies pursued are encouraging. If we could only factor out thecost of the bank  bailout, we would be well on the way to recovery. If only!

The saving on interest will not go amiss. For even if so far Enda Kenny seems blessed with Napoleon’s sine qua non for a general – Luck – the third hundred days of the coalition promises to be interesting. At the very least the government has to find $4.5 billion in extra savings in the December budget and who knows what else may be lying in the economic long grass out there (last year $5 billion morphed to $7 billion after September, which proved the tipping point necessitating IMF intervention). A formidable enough target in itself but made more complicated by a mystifying commitment, celebrating 100 days in office, by Kenny and his deputy and Labour leader Gilmore, not to raise income tax or cut welfare levels to achieve the target.

Given this commitment, just how the target – an IMF one –  will be met is unclear. Perhaps the Government  believes its luck (and public support) will hold. This is a dangerous strategy. The money has got to come from somewhere. Presumably some form of semantics will be employed , changing tax bands, changing age or income levels for benefits, a slew of stealth taxes, but the net effect will be to damage seriously the government’s reputation for transparency. This has already taken one blow over Roscommon Hospital, where a needless pre- election commitment was given.  The strategy should surely have been to take the harsh measures every one knew were necessary early on in the government’s term and blame it all on Fianna Fail.

The fallback strategy, to blame the IMF, already used to excuse the new property levy, cuts less ice and is less effective politically. There is every danger that the brief opportunity for the new government to dent decisively the  public sense of entitlement and regenerate the political system and culture will be lost. Already voices can be heard complaining that they “voted for change” and asking where is it, as if the economic mess could be banished by simply casting a vote.While most people recognise the seriousnes of the situation and the need for firm and painful action, the danger in delay is that impetus will be lost. As time passes, and as further harsh measures are introduced piecemeal, the fickle finger of blame could quickly redirect  at the government.

There is no doubt that Fine Gael feels it has to tread with care lest it frighten the Labour horses. Labour for its part has its own frightened horses to worry about. The unprecedented number of new Labour backbenchers is both a blessing and a curse; great to have the numbers but a slight loss of support could lose those seats next time round. The new backbenchers are very much aware of this, and of the radical left snapping at Labour’s heels. The recent election showed the punishment that an angry and disillusioned electorate can hand out.

While all this is true (and also applies, mutatis mutandis, to the Fine Gael backbenchers), there is surely a stronger case to be made in the current situation for the tactics of Machiavelli rather than Fabian the Delayer, i.e. get the harsh measures over quickly.  Whatever the outcome on the world macro- stage, the problem of the budget deficit on the Irish micro-stage will remain and this cannot be solved without pain.

The first strains on inter-coalition relations  should come later this month when the comprehensive review of government expenditure is due. Granted that the Minister in charge is a Labour Minister, nevertheless any proposed cutbacks in spending, to help meet the IMF target, are likely to impact more on Labour supporters and support and lead to some soul-searching in the ranks. A toe to toe battle between the two parties in the October Presidential election would also not improve matters, though as I write it is not clear what the final line-up of candidates will be.

The mood of the electorate should also be watched.While there has been a healthy dose of realism up to now, as evidenced by the muted reaction to the medicine the public has had to swallow (unlike Greece, there has been no rioting in the streets), this was accompanied by a grim resolve to punish those deemed responsible, as Fianna Fail found out. However, into Year Four, with more screw-tightening in prospect, the cumulative effect is mounting,  with many hitherto unscathed (including sections of the middle class) now being hit.

The potential for grievance developing is rising. Revelations such as the FAS one do not help, nor the fact, underscored daily, that everyone will hang on doggedly to what they have. Ultimately so much depends on international developments that  the Government should be careful lest what it does, or doesn’t do, makes matters worse.

SOMEBODY OUT THERE LIKES US

Despite our economic woes somebody out there likes us and wants to come here to live! The very first results of the 2011 census have appeared – the headcount. They show that the population of the republic has risen to 4,581,269, an increase of 340,000, or 8.1%, since 2006. The size of the increase came as a surprise to officialdom, exceeding estimates by 100,000. It would appear that, in addition to a high birth rate, more people arrived and stayed and fewer left than had been thought. Given that even now living standards here (and the social welfare system) compare favourably with those in Central Europe and the Baltics, let alone the third world, should anyone have been surprised?

The 2011 figures suggest at the very least that one of the common official assumptions concerning inward migration needs revisiting, i.e. that many of those who came “for work” during the Tiger Years would leave when the economy imploded. Certainly some have, and the number arriving has diminished, yet many more have stayed. The actual figures will not become clear until more detailed data from the census becomes available next year, but recent contacts and exchanges I have had with just three embassies in Dublin paint a very interesting picture. The myth of the mobile transient Polish building worker needs to be put to rest.

There are now probably 200,000 Poles living in Ireland, anything up to 100,000 Lithuanians and 30,000 Latvians. These three nationalities alone now comprise 7% of the country’s population. Anyone who has been an emigrant, or is familiar with the pattern of Irish emigration over the years will not be surprised, given the numbers who came to Ireland from 2004 on. Once the emigration pain barrier of several years has been reached, experience suggests that a good proportion of immigrants will stay, put down roots, develop relationships and start families. These people are not going anywhere.

Similar considerations apply to the 75,000 immigrants from three other Central European EU states -the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, who arrived here  during the boom ( to end 2008). It’s fair to assume that they have stayed on in much the same proportion as the others, i.e. anything up to 50,000. Moreover, though the numbers arriving from these six EU states have declined sharply since 2008, PPS registrations for the six (our equivalent of social security numbers) in 2009 totalled 26,000, in 2010 18,500 and, in the first five months of 2011, 6000. Poles continue to register at over 100 per week. Again, it is reasonable to assume that most of these late comers, who came with their eyes open, post-boom, are still here.

These EU migrants had one other thing in common – no restriction on the right to work in Ireland. People from non-EU countries, and Romania and Bulgaria after 2007, require work permits, and, in terms of receiving  welfare benefits, must meet the criteria for “habitual residence”  regulations introduced by Ireland and others of the “richer” EU states after 2004 to combat welfare shopping by immigrants ( and, incidentally, applied to incoming Irish citizens and returned emigrants). The total number of new work permits issued to all nationalities in 2008 was 8481, declining to 4024 in 2009 and 3394 in 2010. Romanians received just under 1100 of these.

Nevertheless, 22,000 Romanians received PPS numbers in 2007 and 2008 and a further 5,500 in 2009 and 2010; around 1500 have done so this year. The figures for Brazilians (who received slightly over 500 new work permits since 2008) are even more startling. This is a non – EU state with which Ireland has few historical or trading links (unlike Argentina, where there is a large population of Irish descent). Between 2006 and 2008 almost 14,000 Brazilians received PPS numbers, in 2009 2741, while the figure for 2010 was 4257 (as against 143 Argentinians). To date in 2011 2553 PPS numbers have issued to Brazilians, almost as many as to Poles. Again, presumably most of the latest arrivals plus a good proportion of those who have arrived since 2007 have stayed. Ditto with regard to those coming from third world countries, roughly 8000 in 2010. The message is clear. Despite our current economic difficulties, Ireland continues to be attractive to those coming from poorer societies.

To complete the picture there is more affluent immigration also and, all told, in 2010, around 70,000 PPS numbers were issued to non-Irish people (the 85,130 issued to Irish people were, with a few exceptions, to babies), a rate being maintained this year, despite the economic situation. While emigration has picked up the net inflow continues and, as the census has revealed, its extent has been underestimated.

The consequences of continued strong inward migration have received little public attention. While there was considerable coverage and hand-wringing over estimates of up to 50,000 young Irish people emigrating last year, there has been little or no focus on the fact that 35,000 plus arrived here last year as economic migrants. Clearly should this trend continue, on top of the current situation, it will add considerably to the problem of tackling unemployment, still stubbornly high at 450,000.

The recovery of the 90s took place initially with no inward migration, a static or declining population and a work force in which women were underrepresented. This has now changed utterly, and, while there are almost daily announcements of new jobs in the multinational sector, they are not impacting on the total out of work. Like Spain, Ireland may be entering a period with chronic high levels of unemployment compounded by immigration and, in Ireland’s case, a demographic  structure which promises a continued high birth rate.

The detailed breakdown of the population by age, nationality or ethnic origin etc. will become clear as more of the census results become available, but, generally, more people means more pressure on resources. At a time of financial stringency this will cause the state some headaches but there is  one potential silver lining. More people also means more demand, including for accommodation, so an economic recovery should see a surge in demand for housing, helping to solve the overhang of excess housing units and correct the current imbalance.

Having a sizeable percentage of the population non Irish raises other issues, which were pointed to in the 2006 Census, but which are likely to become more pressing. Not least of these relates to democratic representation. Only citizens can vote, but any review of the Constitution (which is being mooted) can hardly ignore the issue of the vote for non-nationals. The issue of multiculturalism also needs addressing in a more coherent way than up to now. The data from the Census will be critical in this regard.

Some historical perspective. The current population figure of almost 4.6 million is still far short of the 1841 total of 6.5 million for the 26 county area, and, while the population of Leinster is now one third higher, the population of Munster is a little over half the pre-Famine level, while those of Connacht and Ulster are 60% less. It will take a lot more inward migration to dent that shortfall.