Month: September 2012

DESERT ISLAND DISCS AT 70

by paleoutlaw, posted in Published Articles

DESERT ISLAND DISCS

 Which one of us has not drawn up a list of favourite pieces of music, tunes or songs that mean something special ? Which of us has not got a particular favourite book, one to hang on to if the bailiffs called, or if a flash flood raged through the house? In 1941 a British radio producer and writer, Roy Plomley, came up with an idea for a programme based on people’s choice of favourites. These were relatively early days for radio; at that time  BBC radio announcers were required to read the news wearing evening dress. The BEEB operated under the principles laid down by its first Director General , Lord Reith– to educate, inform and entertain.

Plomley’s  idea obviously passed and his programme, Desert Island Discs,  first went on air in early 1942, for an eight week run. This was extended, the programme was broadcast throughout much of the war years, becoming, and, after 1951, became a weekly staple feature on the Home Service. On 29 January next it will celebrate its 70th anniversary, making it, after the Grand Ole Opry, the longest radio show on air, anywhere. David Attenborough will be the 70th anniversary  guest castaway.

The programme’s theme is simple, with an obvious and enduring appeal. Participants are interviewed about their lives and are asked to imagine they are marooned on a desert island with eight selected favourite pieces of music for company, on the improbable assumption that the island will have a power source and means to play the music.  This interview-with-music format  has proved enduring, and has been adapted widely elsewhere. The desert island dimension was unique. Listeners bought into the idea, and,  since these would be the ONLY pieces of music the castaway would hear, perhaps forever,  were prompted  to focus on what  they would choose. Additionally, there was the opportunity to listen and  compare individual choices with those of a celebrity.

The format has remained basically unaltered since the beginning, the only refinements   being to allow castaways to take one book and one luxury item to supplement the Bible and Shakespeare kindly provided by the BBC.  In 70 years the programme has had only four presenters, Roy Plomley until  shortly before his death in 1985, then Michael Parkinson, followed by Sue Lawley and current presenter Kirsty Young who took over in October 2006. Over 2500 celebrities have featured since the programme first kicked off with Vic Oliver, an actor and comedian who was also Churchill’s son in law (though later divorced and not a favourite.  At a dinner party attended by both, Churchill reportedly praised Mussolini for “having the good sense to shoot his son-in-law”).

Churchill never appeared on the programme, though six British prime ministers have; only one, however, while in office – John Major on the show’s 50th anniversary.

The list reads like a who’s who of those acceptable to or in vogue with the British chattering classes  and at various times the programme has been criticised as elitist and even racist. Castaways have for the most part been uncontroversial figures with roughly three quarters  associated with one or other branch of the arts, the largest category being actors or producers followed by  writers, poets, singers and musicians.  Such has been the show’s popularity that stories exist of people eager to be selected and at least one Labour politician, later made a peer, actually carried a list. And a quick trawl of the internet will turn up mock and comic celebrity castaways.

In 1989 one controversial participant was Diana Mitford Mosley , widow of Oswald, the British fascist leader, who lived for some time in Ireland after the War. Hitler, whom she described as “fascinating”, was guest of honour at her wedding, which took place in 1936 in Goebbel’s house.  When Sue Lawley asked her  “What about the six million Jews murdered by the Nazis?” her response was “Oh no, I don’t think it was as many as that. I know it was much, much less.” After a long pause, which spoke more eloquently than any words could, Lawley went on “Tell us about your fifth record, Lady Mosley.”

Royalty has been represented by Princess Margaret, who chose War and Peace and a piano. Princess Grace was also a guest. Nine Nobel Prize winners, including Seamus Heaney, and twelve Olympic champions, among them Harold Abrahams, who inspired the film Chariots of Fire, have also given their choices. Lord Killanin actually chose as his luxury an Olympic gold medal.  David Puttnam,  who directed Chariots, chose a goose down pillow. Paul McCartney chose a guitar, Nigel Kennedy a violin and Jimmy Saville a Havana cigar. Annie Lennox chose sun cream.

The Irish have been well represented, with Terry Wogan topping the list with three appearances, most recently this New Year’s Day. Edna O Brien and Sinead Cusack have both featured twice, while others to appear have included Seamus Heaney, Brian Keenan, Paddy Moloney, Christy Moore, Bob Geldof, Maeve Binchy, Bill Cullen and Neil Jordan. Ian Paisley has also been a guest, choosing Foxe’s Book of Martyrs for comfort.

The music chosen has shown a definite bias , with the most popular eight pieces and composers all  classical. Four of the top choices are by Beethoven, with “Ode to Joy” number one. Mozart, Beethoven and Bach head the league table of composers, well ahead of the rest, although none of Mozart’s pieces make the top eight . Not surprisingly the Beatles are by far the best loved pop band, though Edith Piaf’s ”Je Ne Regrette Rien” and Sinatra’s “My Way” were the most requested songs. Interestingly, when 25,000 listeners responded last May with their choices, Queen (Bohemian Rhapsody) and Pink Floyd (Comfortably Numb) broke the classical monopoly at the top.

The choice of one luxury has added spice to the programme. Many have been predictable. Steve Davis chose a snooker table, Jack Charlton a fishing rod, Neil Jordan a typewriter . Christy Moore chose uileann pipes, Paddy Moloney a tin whistle, Simon Cowell a mirror. Sinead Cusack  chose a big hat with muslin, Bob Geldof the New York Metropolitan Museum and Bill Cullen an accordion. Good wine, champagne and lots of booze, even a distillery (requested by Dirk Bogarde), together with fine cigars, have been selected. Dervla Murphy requested a still. David Cameron was one of many who asked for  a crate of Scotch. Bear Grylls chose Robinson Crusoe and a family photo. More unexpected was the Mona Lisa for Arthur Scargill, an egg timer for Michael Tippett, Doc Martens for Seamus Heaney and a woman’s evening gown for Edgar Lustgarten.

Perhaps not so unexpected was Oliver Reed’s request for an inflatable rubber woman, chosen also by Michael Crawford; no one has yet opted for an inflatable male actor! John Major wanted a replica of the Oval and a bowling machine, Alice Cooper a driving range and Rowan Atkinson a car to clean. Pride of place must go, however, to  John Cleese, who in his first appearance, in 1971 asked for two luxury items : a papier-mâché statue of Margaret Thatcher, and a baseball bat; this long before she became Prime Minister!

So, go on; make your choice!

January 2012

THE DON

by paleoutlaw, posted in sport

THE DON

In 2006 I attended the annual conference of the Federation of Irish Societies in Britain in Leeds. Part of it took place in the new centre at Headingley Cricket Ground. I was reminded of this recently as the results came through from the Cricket World Cup. Ireland’s heroics against England took place almost ten years to the day after the funeral of the greatest cricketer of them all, Donald Bradman. Bradman would certainly have approved of the win and the manner of it.

Bradman in fact was in at the birth of one day international cricket in 1971 when he organised a match after the Melbourne Ashes Test was rained off. One day cricket at the top level has since proved to be immensely popular as witness the current Cricket World Cup. Bradman was also an early advocate of instant replays and the use of modern technology to further popularise the game.

But it is as a batsman that he will be remembered, not only as the greatest cricketer but arguably the greatest sportsman of the last century. In international Test Cricket only twenty players have ever achieved the monumental score of over 300 in a game. Bradman did it twice, one of only four to do so. But Bradman did it on the same ground – Headingley – and in a manner that will never be forgotten.

In 1930 Australia toured England, with their new star, Bradman, who was still only 21. He was slight of stature -five foot seven – and weighed just ten and a half stone. He had burst on the scene two years earlier but some of the English critics had dismissed him as a once off. They got their answer. Bradman began by hitting 1000 runs before the end of May –itself a rare feat. In the first Ashes Test he scored 131.In the second test, at Lords, he scored 254, a new Test match record score in England. On 11 July he entered cricket history at Headingley. He came into bat early on, after Australia lost a wicket. He reached 100 in 99 minutes and was 115 at lunch. Between lunch and tea he added a further century. By close of play he had reached 309 not out, made in 344 minutes, the only player ever  to score a triple century in one day.

He was eventually out for 334. He followed this innings with one of 254 at the Oval. In five test matches, one ruined by rain, he had scored 974 runs at an average of 139.

Bradman returned to England in 1934. The years between had been eventful.  He had scored 299 not out, against South Africa in 1932, being denied another triple century when he ran out of batting partners. An Ashes series in Australia had been soured by England’s tactics – designed to stop Bradman – of bowling short and at speed, hitting the batsman. The issue, known ever afterwards as “bodyline”, escalated into a diplomatic incident before cooler heads prevailed. Despite, or perhaps because of, the bodyline tactics, Bradman again topped the Australian batting averages, albeit below his customary level. These years saw him also plagued by ill health, which continued through the 1934 English tour.

Some indifferent performances – for Bradman – and recurring ill health marked his tour performances before the Fourth test at Headingley in August 1934. Bradman commenced  his innings at the beginning of the second day. The night before he had declined a dinner invitation from the great Cricket sportswriter, Neville Cardus, on the grounds that Australia needed him to score 200. Cardus pointed out that, since he had scored 334 on the same pitch last time around, he was statistically unlikely to perform well. In the event Bradman batted for over a day and scored another triple century. He followed this up with a supreme double century in the fifth test at the Oval.

Bradman scored more runs faster than any other cricketer before or since. But for the Second World War, which took a large chunk out of his playing career, his figures would have been even more impressive. In his final tour of England, in 1948, in his 40th year, he scored over 2400 runs at an average of almost 90. His career first class run total was 28,000 in 338 innings, averaging 95.10 with 117 centuries – one for every third time at bat.  In all he scored 6996 runs in 52 tests at an average of 99.94. His nearest rival to date averages sixty. And, a pub quiz answer: his batting average as a schoolboy was infinity – he was never dismissed.

How good was he, and how would he measure up to sportsmen in other fields? His comparative performances have been calculated by Charles Davis, an Australian sports statistician. Davis calculated that, to achieve levels of performance equivalent to Bradman, a basketball player would have to average over his career 43 points a game, a golfer win 25 majors and a baseball star average .392. For reference, Michael Jordan averaged 32 points, Jack Nicklaus won 18 majors and Ty Cobb (the highest baseball hitter) .366; the great Babe Ruth, much admired by Bradman, averaged .342.

Bradman – truly a different class!

March 2011

PHANTOM by JO NESBO : review

by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

PHANTOM

Harry Hole is back, a detective in the classic hard boiled mode, world weary, flawed,  but with a passion for justice. Harry is also Norwegian, and his creator, Jo Nesbo, stakes a claim to being the  best crime writer to emerge from Scandinavia. The comparisons are with Henning Mankel and Wallender rather than Stieg Larsson. The only tattoos in evidence in this, the ninth in the Harry Hole series, are those on the Russian criminals Harry encounters.

Jo Nesbo is himself an interesting character. A promising footballer, he played with the current Norwegian champions Molde before  his dreams of playing for Spurs were shattered  together  with his cruciate ligaments. After graduation, he became a stockbroker and financial analyst and along the way founded a successful rock band, Di Derre. Burn out, and a trip to Australia prompted a lifestyle change and the first Harry Hole novel appeared in 1997 (the O is pronounced like the U in Una). His reputation has grown with each book.  The last, The Leopard, was a best seller here and  in the UK and another (The Snowman) is being made into a film directed by Martin Scorsese.

In Phantom , Harry has returned to Oslo after three years in Hong Kong. His alcoholism has been tamed and he is still the formidable dogged investigator of old. No longer a policeman, he is back to investigate a case already closed, that of a junkie killed by another. He reignites his old relationship with the woman of his life and her son, for whom he was the surrogate father. He plunges into the other Oslo, an underworld of drugs and crime, a marked contrast to the city’s prosperous public face.  On the way we get  insights into how the modern drug  supply network operates including a classic account of smuggling by air.

There is a fresh version of heroin on the street – violin – and the addicts are queuing  up for their  fix. It is synthetic, highly potent, and in short supply, controlled by a mysterious new figure on the local scene – “the Man from Dubai.” His dealers wear trademark Arsenal shirts, his enforcers are Russian, his philosophy is simple. You mess with him – you die.  Meanwhile the authorities  are preening themselves over an apparent clean-up of Oslo, with a decline in  drug deaths and a rise in successful police busts of drug pushers. Throw in sex, hints of police and official corruption and you have all the ingredients for a page turner.

As the book progresses, Harry’s demons resurface. His Achilles heel remains drink and “will he won’t he” is a subtext for much of the book, marked also by his encounters with a strange  priest­- like figure, complete with clerical collar, who shares the same flop house hotel Harry uses as a base. But, as the body count mounts and Harry gets close to the truth and to the criminal mastermind there are unpalatable realities to be confronted and faced down. Another winner for Nesbo.

March 2012

FAREWELL ENCYCLOPAEDIA BRITANNICA !

by paleoutlaw, posted in Published Articles

LUX MUNDI

Amos Urban Shirk read it all, George Bernard Shaw read most of it,  Ernest Shackleton reputedly burned it to keep warm in the Antarctic, while the fictional Jabez Wilson, in the Sherlock Holmes story “The Red-headed League” thought he had a sinecure for life copying it out longhand. It was, of course, the Encyclopaedia Britannica, which is now passing into history, at least in printed form, with the last hard copies now selling out.

Its obituaries have been written, in general taking the line that it was well past its sell-by date. One critic sneered it would take a nuclear holocaust, the Rapture or the Mayan End of Days to resuscitate it. I for one will shed a tear at its passing.

Of course in the Internet Age it is impossible to produce a definitive up to date printed reference work to compete with what the Web can provide at the touch of a keyboard.  Arguably we are experiencing an information and communication revolution as profound as that generated by the invention of printing half a millennium ago. How can a work with 100,000 articles compete with a free repository of 3.9 million pieces? Indeed, ironically, one of the best sources of information about Britannica is the current article in Wikipedia.

But Britannica was never just about the quantity of the knowledge it contained. Even thirty volumes and forty million words could hardly scratch the surface of human knowledge, though it was a handy source to acquire a “gintleman’s knowledge” of a topic.

Britannica was attractive as an item of furniture, occupying pride of place in many a middle class home, colonising some or all of a bookcase.  Whether the set was ever opened or not it looked the goods, and as often as not  was one of the jewels in the crown of the family library. Striking, indeed at times intimidating in appearance, a row of solemn identically bound large volumes, with a sonorous title, designations on the spine running from A to Z, and the promise, or threat, that all human knowledge was there.

Many have probably toyed with the idea of reading it all, and some have perhaps even started.  Shirk, who read the entire Eleventh Edition took four and a half years at  three hours a day. Most of us would feel life is too short and abandon the task before long, retaining only, in the words of Sherlock Holmes “the minute knowledge…..gained on every subject which comes under the letter A.” For those who haven’t read it “The Red-headed League” is a joy and I won’t spoil it, but think Jason Statham and “The Bank Job.”

I’ve flirted with Britannicas most of my life, starting in school and public libraries. I actually own two printed versions, as dissimilar as can be imagined.  I struck it lucky at a US Church bazaar in  in 1976. For the princely sum of $25 I bought an old, slightly battered set bound in  semi flexible format with super-thin airmail paper similar to that used in old Roman Missals (remember them?), and dedicated to “the Two Heads of the English-Speaking Peoples” – George V and Calvin Coolidge. Rarely was money so well spent, and though I haven’t done a Shirk, or even a Shaw, I have spent many hours reading and browsing through it and it remains a prized possession.

For it is no ordinary edition but rather the Thirteenth, incorporating the fabled Eleventh Edition of 1910. The Eleventh, very much a fin de siècle work, was regarded as a landmark of scholarship for its time and was the last  Britannica with a classical rather than a contemporary emphasis. 1500 leading academics and experts produced over 40,000 articles, some stretching over many pages, some still relevant a century later.  Joyce and his contemporaries used it, and you can also since, such is its fame, it is now freely available on the web.

My Britannica –buying culminated in 1994, when I bought the deluxe package , trading in yet another Britannica. As well as a spanking new 32 volume Britannica, bound in  handsome burgundy, I got the extended family, i.e. a facsimile of the three volume first edition, the Britannica Atlas (post- Soviet Union), and the Children’s Britannica, in 20 volumes ( to master its contents alone would be an achievement), together with Britannica’s famous sibling, the 60 volume “Great Books of the Western World”. Often criticised (too many dead European males, underrepresentation of women and non-Europeans, bias towards Britain and the USA, etc.) the collection remains impressive, running from Classical times through Shakespeare and the great philosophers to Joyce, Eliot and Orwell.

So I’m ready for Armageddon, with the cream of western knowledge in my bookcase. And if all else fails I can always do a Shackleton.

April 2012

CARPETS

by paleoutlaw, posted in Published Articles

CARPETS

Like Woody Allen’s parents,  I share a belief in traditional values – God and Wool Carpets.  In my case oriental rugs. Whenever the opportunity arises and I am in a carpet country, I look for a souvenir to bring back. The rooms in our house are dotted with assorted carpets and rugs, the product of trips over the years to places as diverse and exotic as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The attic contains more – those that did not pass muster with my long suffering wife- including two venerable and faded items  sold to me as cosmetic pieces used to adorn the sides of a favourite camel.

I picked up the camel sides and two others in Turkmenistan during the era of the late unlamented dictator Niyazov, or Turkmenbashi as he preferred to be known. It was National Carpet Week and the main square in the country’s capital, Ashgabad, was given over to numerous examples of various kinds of carpet together with  yurts and other structures to demonstrate that carpets belong on walls as well as floors. The whole scene was dominated by a huge carpet bearing an image of the then President-for-life.  Like most tourists I headed for the Sunday bazaar which offered a bewildering choice of carpets to suit every pocket and taste. Here I found the camel sides after  lengthy bargaining with two formidable Turkic women.

Pride of place in  my sitting room goes to a very fine Turkish carpet, orange in hue. It picks up light magically, giving warmth to its surroundings. I found it, or it found me, in the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul and it was love at first glimpse. My wife and I were cajoled inside the dealer’s shop and plied with tea while family members showed some of the stock “with no obligation”.  My teenage sons were appalled at the spectacle of their father haggling unashamedly with the dealer and eventually arriving at a price that suited both parties, i.e. a massive profit for the dealer and certitude for the buyer that what he had bought was worth the money .

Two prayer mats also rate highly. One is a rich gold, fringed with red which I bought in Baku. The other is an exquisite delicate silk and textile piece which, incredibly I found for 50 old Belgian francs – about IR£1 – in a junk shop in Brussels in the late 90s. Badly stained, the owner felt guilty about even charging me. Two good sessions in the washing machine did not harm the cloth but removed the grime in its entirety. If not as good as new it is certainly something on which visitors remark.  Its provenance is not clear; one enthusiastic carpet buff described it as possibly a Bokhara Suzani, which I doubt, but, whatever, it was a bargain!

Haggling is an integral part of the game, particularly with street or bazaar traders and it was in Samarkand that I finally made the grade in that area. I was visiting the Registan, that magnificent collection of buildings, including three venerable and historic madrasahs which marked the centre of ancient Samarkand.  A street trader was displaying some rugs outside one of the numerous stalls and shops dotted in and around the Registan and the accompanying Chorsu.  I was by then under strict instructions from home on no account to bring back another carpet and had resisted temptation personfully. However one rug in particular caught my eye and the trader sensed it immediately.  “$400” he announced; “special price.”  I laughed, offered $100 and consigned the rug to memory as my companion and I walked on.

There was plenty to see, from a fascinating carpet weaving shop, where rugs were being woven slowly to order, through some fine and pricy antique shops to stalls selling brightly coloured Uzbek cushions and fabrics. We must have spent an hour in the complex, and, at every twist and turn, the trader was there with a fresh offer on the rug. I told him several times I simply was not interested, and did not care if it had taken six or nine months of a family’s time to weave it by hand. The price reached $200, then $150 and then lower. Finally, our tour ended and the bus beckoned. As we prepared to board, the voice from behind said “All right. $110.” It was too much; his persistence deserved a reward. I turned to my companion; we laughed. “Done”.

My friend, who was Dutch, congratulated me on my bargaining skills, though he did point out that perhaps my opening bid was too high. Was the carpet worth it? Well, if there’s one thing I’ve learned about owning carpets, as with many other collectibles not easily convertible into cash, the value is in the heart of the owner. In any event, I like it and, more importantly, so does my wife!

January 2012

THE END of the PARTY; BRUCE ARNOLD and JASON O’ TOOLE: review

by paleoutlaw, posted in Book Reviews

Bruce Arnold and Jason O’Toole: The End of the Party

RTE’s “Inside the Cowen Government” demonstrated that there is no lack of interest in the events which led to  the virtual annihilation of Fianna Fail as a political force in last February’s election. “The End of the Party” traces its demise from the heady days of its three in a row success in 2007 to its worst ever electoral performance. It’s a story without heroes, with the possible improbable exception of Charlie McCreevy. It is also a story without a happy ending as Ireland’s economic woes of recent years continue unabated.

This is an angry book, with the emotions of the authors clearly showing as they attempt to outline how we got from where we were to where we are. There are swipes at Bertie Ahern,  with the meltdown of both country and party traced to his tenure, and at the Greens for turning “yellow” by entering coalition. But the main opprobrium is focussed on Brian Cowen, and his Finance Minister, the late Brian Lenihan. The main events of the  three turbulent years to last February are burned in most people’s memories, and, indeed the book is less a narrative account of the Cowen premiership and more a collection of snapshots of its highs (few)  and lows (many).

Brian Cowen became Taoiseach in early May 2008 and was immediately pitchforked into  the Lisbon Referendum campaign. Possibly distracted by his elevation, he got off to a bad start, admitting he had not read the whole Treaty. It was downhill from then on, with the tactical errors of Nice One repeated by the Yes side. The advocates of a “No” vote, marshalled by the able and articulate  Declan Ganley, ran a superb campaign and won by a clear margin.

With  government finances collapsing in tandem  with the end of the building boom, an emergency budget was scheduled for early October2008. It demonstrated more tactical ineptitude and necessitated an embarrassing volte face over a proposal to remove automatic medical cards from the over-70s. By then however, the fate of the  government, and of the country,  had been decided.

On the night of 29 September 2008, Cowen and Lenihan, fearing an immediate collapse of the Irish banks, and with other Cabinet members consulted by phone, issued an  unlimited guarantee on all deposits and borrowings of six major Irish banks.  It was the defining moment of Cowen’s government. The information available then suggested a considerable but manageable exposure of several billion; as we now know this was wrong by many multiples. The entrails of this will continue to be pored over for a long time to come and this book does its fair share, posing all the obvious (and not so obvious) questions.

As the banking horror story unfolded,  Fianna Fail’s support declined . It dropped below 30% in the wake of the guarantee and never really recovered, slipping to 23 % in early 2010 and hitting 18% as the year ended. Not even a resounding success in the Lisbon rerun helped. The authors are particularly incensed at the decision to hold a second referendum castigating the  Yes campaign as a mixture of “fear, lies and an array of blatant illegalities”.

Then and thereafter, the book suggests it was a case of holding on in the hope that something would turn up. There was too much respect for the ECB and not enough cognisance that most of Ireland’s trade was with countries outside the Eurozone. There are chapters on NAMA (condemned), the first cabinet reshuffle (remember that? Killeen and Carey in), and Brian Cowen’s drinking as well as his failure or inability to communicate.

The pace picks up as the end approaches, and the book is riveting enough in the final chapters. “The Sad Autumn of 2010” introduces the effective denouement, the arrival of Ajai Chopra and the Bailout, the terms humiliating, even the way the procedure was handled cringe making. The government was comprehensively bankrupt. Indeed, as the authors note “the reality…. at the end of November, was a set of fiscal circumstances about which people could do nothing, and a level of anger and hatred about which they could do a great deal”. Fianna Fail “had lied to them, betrayed them, robbed them and misled them”.

There are chapters also on the competing claims, from Fitzpatrick and Dunne, about the extent of Brian Cowen’s contacts with Anglo Irish Bank. There is next to nothing about the invisible elephant, Ireland’s structural budget deficit. But these are secondary. The Guarantee and the Bailout did for the Brians and Fianna Fail.

November 2011

ANCESTRAL VOICES PROPHESYING WAR 1209 XLIII

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

ANCESTRAL VOICES PROPHESYING WAR

Between now and the year’s end, the mettle of the government seems set to be tested.

The main issue will be framing the December  budget and finding cuts or increased taxes sufficient to meet the stated target of more than $4 billion in savings for 2013. The “easy bits” have been done. Given that Labour remains ideologically opposed to cuts in the basic levels of welfare payments, how agreement is secured will be interesting.

The Troika has suggested looking at the overarching sacred cow of universal benefits and introducing means testing on some of them, including child benefit and  the generous entitlements of the old (free travel,  free electricity among others). Last year’s bleating and handwringing by politicians and not so veiled threats from the interest groups involved have been trotted out again and we are still only in August. Have we advanced nothing since last December?

The government has thus far remained tight lipped about the small print on the property tax, likely to be the main new fiscal imposition,  beyond announcing that it will be collected by the tax authorities, thus avoiding the fiasco of the 2012 household charge, an issue which continues to rumble on. Could there be a quid pro quo  in a budget announcement on this to balance some semantic legerdemain on welfare benefits?

While tackling the economic mess is paramount,  and while the priority should be ensuring the public is educated and properly informed about  this issue, crucial to our national survival, the government continues to occupy  itself with near irrelevancies. The public debate on the abolition of the Senate is slowly gaining momentum. It is hardly a priority, may prove a distraction and will require a constitutional referendum. One is already scheduled on the rights of the child. Frankly these are indulgences we cannot afford at present.

Ditto the recent statement by Eamon Gilmore, deputy Taoiseach, that gay marriage is THE “civil right issue of this generation” (really?). Ditto also ideas floated to hike minimum prices for alcohol to curb teenage drinking, and suggestions to increase incrementally the price of cigarettes (already the highest in Europe) to $1 per cigarette!  A smuggler’s manifesto. All are superstructure issues when the priority is the substructure ( BTW,  the only Marx I identify with is Groucho, not Karl!).

Meanwhile there is to be a constitutional convention to review the current document . Already identified as issues to be addressed  are “priorities” such as removing blasphemy, reducing the term of the President to five years and  lowering the voting age from 18 to 17. These will undoubtedly lick the creaking pre -World War Two basic law, with its dated language and syntax, into an instrument fit for 21st Century purpose.

In fairness,  there has been some improvement in the official financial situation due to some marginal easing on this year’s promissory note.  The  government is hoping additionally for some substantive (and substantial) relief – in whatever form – on the bank debt portion of our borrowing burden  and is upbeat on something emerging before December. Like every taxpayer I hope they are right. Any relief and its extent is contingent on events in the Eurozone and it would be a brave man who would bet on the outcome there. But even were the cross of the bank debt lifted, the grim spires of over generous welfare benefits and an inadequate tax base would remain to be addressed.

There has also been some progress aimed at ensuring that what happened can never recur. With the caveat that military planners prepare against the last war, this is welcome. Nothing has actually been passed into law but draft legislation on  ethics and  bankruptcy reform have appeared, hardly ideal but a big improvement on the current situation. The Financial Regulator has full government backing for his tough line and there is a sense that, slowly, the situation is being addressed. The first criminal charges have been issued against former bankers. The Courts have shown signs of a get tough policy on white collar crime and have also taken a vigorous line against individuals attempting to file for bankruptcy in Britain.

However, the small print of company and tax legislation remains to be addressed, including the distinction between a company  and the  individual (s) controlling it. The issue of taxation, residency  and citizenship also needs to be explored in a serious fashion, as well as tackling what is steadily emerging as the elephant in the room – the level of private, chiefly mortgage,  debt. This last could prove terminal.

Eighteen months in, the pressures are beginning  to mount on the government with the largest majority in the history of the state. It now has firm ownership of the ship of state and can no longer get away with blaming its predecessor. Backbenchers are getting increasingly uneasy as the months pass, the economic situation remains dire and election promises get more hollow by the day. While the economic realities were signalled well in advance of the last election, the public has limited patience and the reality has now dawned on many of those newly elected that they will be in the firing line of public displeasure next time round. The horses are definitely showing signs of fright.

Another issue all could do without, the thorny one of abortion, has re-surfaced out of left field. Abortion generates strong emotions and polarised views at any time and has had a particularly fraught recent  political history in Ireland. While there was never any prospect of an Irish legislature legalising abortion,  in the 1980s the pro-lifers sought to copper fasten matters with a constitutional referendum. The constitution now accords the foetus a right to life “with due regard to the equal right to life of the mother.” Not surprisingly this resulted in court actions and further referendums, including one in 1992 where almost 40% voted to prevent  a pregnant woman from leaving Ireland to secure an abortion elsewhere (in the wake of the infamous X case).

The issue has arisen again now because of the need for the government to comply with a ruling from the European Court of Human Rights to legislate over  the human rights of a woman (in the C case) unable to obtain  an abortion in Ireland. The war drums are beating already. Given that Fine Gael is pro-life, and Labour pro-choice, this looks interesting.

Meanwhile an  invisible mermaid is materialising, with dire potential. The pharmaceutical industry, carefully nurtured over the years, was one of the jewels in the crown of the Celtic Tiger, and one of Ireland’s  functioning  fig leafs post crash.  Its heavy hitters were patented drugs, which generated enormous revenues. Now, however, some of the major patents have begun to expire (e.g. Lipitor) with more to follow. The first half of 2012 has seen  a sharp drop of 30% in pharmaceutical exports to the USA ; when the patents expire in Europe further falls are anticipated. Long flagged, now that the moment has arrived the reality is disturbing.  Unless there are fresh patents, the prospects for the pharmaceutical sector look uncertain. This is a bell weather issue ( involving exports worth billions) which the government cannot afford to ignore.

DOING OUR BIT TO SAVE THE EARTH 1208 XLII

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

DOING OUR BIT TO SAVE THE EARTH

Ireland is set to measure the carbon footprint not just of its people but of its cattle! No, the silly season has not arrived .  Another new contract  for Irish Beef destined for McDonalds was announced recently. Currently 20% of Big Macs consumed in Europe are made with Irish beef and new contracts and new investment promise to increase this proportion. Which is very good news for the Irish beef industry.

In welcoming this, the Agriculture Minister proclaimed a world first for Ireland – plans to identify not only the individual animal the beef came from, but also to detail the carbon footprint of the animal, i.e. how much its methane emissions amount to annually!  All this as part of the drive to make Irish beef more attractive to environmentally conscious consumers,  conserve energy, and reduce Ireland’s carbon footprint.

Irish agriculture has escaped much of the recession and  food and food related products are booming. Ireland is the fourth largest net exporter of beef in the world and half of the cream liqueurs sold in the world are made here. A concerted drive is under way to stress the quality and healthy nature of food produced in Ireland. The export potential, particularly in markets such as China, is immense. There are plans to expand beef and milk production,  to be done in a sustainable way, in order to meet the separate targets set for energy saving and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

It’s worth looking at this at a time when we have had a few recent reminders that  we are a small country trying to survive and make an impact. The Eurocrisis continues to unfold, but now there is talk of some significant relief on our banking debt, which will be achieved by clinging to the coattails of a much bigger country, Spain. However it is achieved it will be welcome, though given our structural deficit it will not be a case of “with one bound our hero was free.” In sport also our soccer team, of whom much had been expected,  performed abysmally at the European Championships, clocking up the worst results ever by  a qualifier, while our rugby team (expectations ditto) suffered a crushing whitewash in New Zealand.

Jokes apart,  the largest single component of our greenhouse gas emissions is agriculture, which accounts for 30% of the total, followed by energy at 22% and transport at 19%. Irish industry is relatively clean at 15%. Hence the concentration on cleaning up agriculture and the carbon footprint of cattle.  However, overall, Ireland continues to perform poorly in terms of its international commitments under the Kyoto agreement and  the environment lobby has for years been beating up on the Government over this. There have been recent signs that the figures are moving in the right direction, but this is  chiefly because of the domestic recession.

And there is one of the rubs. During the years of the Celtic Tiger greenhouse emissions rose sharply as the economy boomed. We are now striving to restore economic growth, the mantra for solving unemployment and restoring prosperity. This  will almost inevitably generate more pollution and more greenhouse gases. Sustainable development, the other mantra of most of the first world, is a longer term project and, in Ireland’s case, could well  involve higher costs, thus inhibiting growth  by overpricing our exports. It’s not an easy place to be, particularly since Irish energy costs are already among the highest in Europe and there is much local resistance to proposals for sustainable energy projects such as wind farms. There is also the unpalatable truth that if, for example, Ireland was to reduce the size of its dairy herd in order to reduce its carbon footprint, any slack or gap in the market would be filled rapidly by Latin American and other producers.

Should Ireland be making the effort? We are, after all a very small player on the world scene.  Ireland is currently No. 66 in the league table of carbon footprint emissions, with  43,604,000 metric tonnes released in 2008, 0.14% of the world total. China led the way with over 7 thousand million tonnes released, 160 times the Irish total and 23.33% of the world total. The USA was second, with almost 5.5 billion tonnes (18%). India and Russia, the next two countries were some way behind, each contributing  over 5% of the world total. The total emissions from all 27 EU states came to 14% of the global total, less than the USA alone.

By 2010 China’s emissions had increased by 14% to almost 8.25 billion tonnes, India’s by  18.7% to pass the two billion mark,  the USA and Russia had remained roughly the same. The increase in China’s emissions  was greater than  Ireland’s total emissions would amount to over 20 years. The complicating factor is, of course, the per capita figure, with Chinese CO2 emissions less than 5 tons per capita, India’s less than 2 tons, the USA over  19 tons and Australia over 20.

Although Ireland’s emissions per capita have been declining since 2001, Ireland still had the second highest level in the EU in 2009 with 13.8 tons, second only  to Luxembourg (which has a slightly artificial figure) and well above the EU average of 9.2 tons. There is definitely scope for action.

The whole issue of climate change has become something of a political football. I’ve always regarded it as a no brainer. The rapid industrialisation of countries like China and India, as well as the second echelon of developing nations, are generating man made pollutants on a scale never encountered before. Parking for a moment fanciful (and unprovable) notions that the Earth can take it or that what is occurring is just part of a natural cycle of climate change of indeterminate length and intensity, it is at least prudent to sit down and work out a strategy for  dealing with a possible worst case scenario. The Hole in the Ozone Layer should have been a warning tap on the shoulder.

There is no doubt that global action is needed on the environment, and quickly. Yet the recent failure of the Rio + 20 Conference to produce anything more than a non-binding declaration shows how difficult it is to achieve concrete results internationally . It’s not hard to suggest a reason. Whatever pronouncements their leaders make,  populations in the developing world  want essentially what  their counterparts in the developed world have – a higher standard of living; and who can blame them.  Those counterparts  are loathe to cut back significantly to make space, and have politicians finely tuned to respond. The result is more pollution and a succession of international talking shops that get nowhere.

This is not an area where Ireland  of itself can make a material difference. But it is one where we can make a moral point,  perhaps begin setting an example, even become proactive in working for effective international action. I have pointed out previously the false premises behind much of our whinging. We are among the world’s fortunate. We have no historical baggage. This is an issue which could potentially affect all mankind. Ireland’s stance should be unequivocal.

PIGS, TURKEYS AND THE EURO 1207 XLI

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

PIGS, TURKEYS AND THE
EURO

At least the Irish turkeys (with the exception of one sub-set)
did not vote for Christmas. In the end the
referendum on the Fiscal Treaty passed comfortably. The outcome can best be
described as prompted by enlightened self-interest. The campaign was singularly
uninspiring, with much heat being generated over our sovereign right to borrow,
as if borrowing is a virtue.

Ireland continues to stagger along,
borrowing $400 million per week just to keep the country functioning. As long as
the electorate, and through them the politicians, are unwilling to cut the
welfare benefits we have chosen to pay ourselves, and to cut numbers and
services in the public sector rather than the wages we pay, the country will
have to go on borrowing, the debt will mount up and the interest payable on it
will continue to rise.

This is the reality. The Fiscal Treaty offers the
prospect of securing future funding at advantageous rates when our current
monetary life support system ceases with the end of the Troika supervised deal
after 2013. The brave talk is that Ireland will then “be able to re-enter the
markets.” One commentator has wryly observed that this means, in effect, that we
will leave our own friendly credit union and go to the moneylender down the
street. The moneylenders (sorry, the markets) were unwilling to lend to us in
November 2010, hence the Troika bailout.

There
is every possibility, even likelihood that a second bailout will be necessary,
and in any event who can guess where Ireland, or the Euro, will be by 2014. The
importance of the yes vote was that we did not shut the door prematurely on a
potential source of future cheap money and the treaty’s opponents were unable to
address that point. Indignant whinges about bullying and lost sovereignty cut
little ice in a situation where we are obliged to borrow. Until the books are
balanced this will continue to be the case.

The sub-set that bucked the
trend was the urban working class vote, which appears to have voted no in
considerable numbers. This has been interpreted as marking a growing
polarisation of the Irish electorate along class lines. Perhaps, though it might
simply be a sense of disenchantment among some who voted Labour last year,
contrasting its strong stance during the election campaign with its performance
in government since.

They would be well advised to reflect on Labour’s
position as very much the junior coalition partner, even before considering the
external economic situation the country faces. They should also reflect on the
illogicality of voting in a way which, if successful, would have quickly led to
some really savage welfare cuts. The country raises income sufficient for eight
months and must borrow for the other four. Does anyone seriously think the gap
can be bridged just by soaking the rich; what rich? Arguing that a no vote was a
vote “against austerity” was simply delusional.

If the government
reaction was one of relief at the outcome, Sinn Fein’s glee was evident. Some
polls suggest it is now the second most popular party in the state. Its campaign
for rejection was a mixture of bombastic chauvinism, with talks of wielding
vetoes against Europe, and populist left wing proposals for higher taxes on the
better off and salary cuts for higher paid public servants. Somewhat
inconsistently it also asserted that our “gallant allies in Europe” would
continue to fund us should we vote no.

Given that we are still very
much engaged fiscally in a work in progress, with at least two harsh budgets and
more pain to come, there is every prospect for Sinn Fein to consolidate its
position further at the expense of Labour and perhaps Fianna Fail.  It now has
the working class Labour vote clearly in its sights. It will be interesting to
see how Labour behaves over the required cuts in the next
budget.

Developments on the larger European stage just might throw Labour
a lifeline, though it has to be re-emphasised that even if all Ireland’s debt
(over 70% of which is due to our own spending excesses and has nothing to do
with the banks) were to disappear magically overnight, we would still have to
borrow to pay next week’s welfare payments. We can at least be upfront about our
record of compliance with the Troika programme to date and can now point to the
positive referendum outcome.

The flavour of the month in Eurospeak terms
is the notion of an economic stimulus package (writ small, a similar notion was
touted by Sinn Fein, but ran aground on the practicality of finding funding;
more borrowing?). Hollande, the new French (socialist) president has even
proposed tying French ratification of the Fiscal Treaty to getting some such
package tacked on to the treaty. I suggested last time that some Potemkin
village-style construct might be fabricated to satisfy him and others who
believe that economic growth and recovery can be generated easily. And, indeed,
the whole Fiscal Treaty can be regarded, somewhat similarly as a Potemkin
exercise to mollify the German electorate. Does anyone seriously see the small
print of the treaty being implemented?

But right now the priority is to
address the situation in the PIGS, whatever waffle there may be about growth. I
write before the second Greek election, which may prove a tipping point. All the
PIGS have now received bailouts, the latest being Spain whose banks are shaping
up to be the Irish situation writ larger. Spain has been described as too big to
fail. A bailout has been agreed as I write, but, based on past performance,
there is considerable doubt whether the action taken will be sufficient or
timely enough to provide a lasting solution. The pious hope here is that in some
way a lasting solution involving a greater role for the European Central Bank
would have positive implications for revisiting Ireland’s banking debt, still
leaving us, however, with the other 70%.

Looking at the broader picture,
the slow emergence of a European super state built around Germany, about which I
wrote two years ago, continues apace. Arguably grappling with the current fiscal
crisis is giving impetus to the process.  Already remedies and proposals for
solutions unthinkable two years ago are now firmly on the table, though sorting
them out and finding the correct balance may take some time. Ultimately some
variant on the Alexander Hamilton solution of a fiscal union seems the likely
eventual outcome, always allowing for the quirks of the democratic process. But
Germany must step up to this particular plate.

Though little remarked
upon, Britain breaking ranks late last year may come to be seen as a very
significant landmark. Once the straightjacket of unanimity was removed progress
has been swift – at least in European terms. The Fiscal Treaty was drafted
rapidly and outside the existing Treaty structures so that no country could
wield a veto or delay matters. On past form it is highly likely that several
future agreements and modifications will be necessary before the Euro crisis is
finally resolved. Expect them to be also drafted in a way that precludes any
national veto.

EMMET LARKIN et al 1206 XL

by paleoutlaw, posted in TIME CAPSULE

EMMET LARKIN et al

By the time you read this the latest Irish episode in the ongoing Euro saga will have taken place – the referendum on May 31 on the European Stability Treaty. More about that later.

But first I must acknowledge the sad  passing of Emmet Larkin, whose memorial service at the University of Chicago was the day before Ireland voted. With Emmet’s death, Chicago, Ireland and Irish America has lost a great character and friend.

Emmet Larkin came to the University of Chicago in 1966, where he was Professor of British and Irish History until his retirement in 2006. Together with his friend Professor Larry McCaffrey, he was a seminal figure in promoting Irish studies in the USA through the American Conference for Irish Studies, which they founded in 1960.

Irish studies in the USA are now booming, due in no small part to the ACIS and its founders and Emmet’s role should not be forgotten. It should not be forgotten either that it was the same year,1960,  that the first Irish Catholic was elected U.S. President and that the huge Irish American community took its rightful place in American life.

Emmet’s academic speciality was the Catholic Church in 19th Century Ireland of which he had a deep and erudite understanding, expressed in many books. It is interesting, at a time when the Irish Church is embattled, to recall his friend, Larry McCaffrey’s summation of Emmet’s conclusions on its role and influence in post-Famine Ireland:  the Church“provided an impoverished and oppressed people with consolation, hope, discipline, and cultural and national identity. It also has offered them social, medical and educational services when the state was indifferent to their poverty and ignorance.” Amen to that.

I recall discussing the Great Famine with him in the context of historical revisionism. One observation he made has stayed with me. “ It would not have been allowed to happen in Surrey, or any other part of England.” I first met Emmet in 1973, and last saw him, together with my wife, when we were his guests for  Thanksgiving 2006. My sincere condolences go to his widow, Dianne, and his family.

Back to the Referendum.  Up to early May the issue and the outcome seemed fairly clear. Rejection would paint us out of the certainty of being able to avail of cheap loans from an enhanced bailout fund should more borrowing, i.e. a second bailout, become necessary. The quid pro quo was to tie us into future budgetary constraints. Furthermore rejection would not hold up the treaty: we would be left behind the other Euro member states.

As I mentioned in an earlier column, many have seen the whole treaty as little more than a Potemkin exercise designed to allay the fears of German voters and as contributing little to any overall long term solution to the Euro crisis– another example of a political remedy for an economic problem. We seem now to be steaming towards another Potemkin add-on with an attempt by the heavy hitters among Europe’s politicians to head off popular dissatisfaction  with tough economic measures by tacking on some form of economic stimulus package to the treaty; it is being put together as I write.

The Government  made a judgement call,  “bravely “in my view, (as Yes Minister would put it) to hold the referendum early rather than late. This despite the flak they were getting over the modest  household charge of around $130 per annum. Registration and payments are currently running at around 57%, indicating massive non –compliance.  A near fiasco over the details  of the latest planned stealth tax – water charges – did not improve the public mood. A cynic would suggest that, since there is worse to come – the small print of the pending property tax, for example – it was better to try to get the referendum over with early.

The polls up to now show  a solid majority in favour of the treaty, less because of the efforts of the Yes side, than because the No side were unable to provide any reasonable suggestion of where the $400 million a week needed to run the country would come from were Ireland to vote No. Sloganizing from the Left about increased and new taxes on the rich sounded hollow, if only because, even if they worked, the time delay to net an effective yield would involve a serious period of real privation and hardship which the ordinary punters would not stomach. The second No argument – that ultimately “our gallant allies in Europe” would not see us short, while perhaps containing an element of truth, was not something to bet the house on.

Recent developments elsewhere in Europe  have served to muddy the waters to some extent though not, on the face of it, to affect seriously the referendum outcome, at least according to the latest polls. France has elected a Socialist president, who has spent the time since his election rowing back on his earlier campaign stances. The last one, in 1983, was forced to abandon the free spending policies which got him elected and implement a sharp “austerity turn”. Plus ca change?

The Dutch government has shipped water and  a cobbled together temporary coalition is casting around for politically palatable budgetary measures. Even in Germany the latest regional elections have seen reverses for the government. And in Spain, the fourth of the big four Eurozone countries, the banking and unemployment situations are moving to critical.

It’s fairly clear that ordinary citizens in Europe are exasperated and  frustrated that the decades of rising living standards are over for now at least and virtually every government has taken a pasting at the polls since 2008 (the only exception being Estonia). But at the margin, among the PIGS, the issue of how to manage a fiscal crisis rather  than a mere annoyance has immediate relevance. Ireland is in a bail-out situation, and thus far is handling it without fuss or real hardship (belt tightening does not constitute hardship!).

It is hardly surprising therefore that the principle that seems to work with the Irish voter at referendum time, “When in doubt vote No” appears on this occasion to be working in favour of the Yes side. While the treaty is not exactly palatable, rejection without a clear visible alternative seems just too risky. The hard won progress of the last three years is not for discarding easily. Again, the spectacle of Greece continues to concentrate minds. The Greek voters  decisively rejected its bail – out deal and the country is currently in political crisis and eyeball-to eyeball  with its paymasters in Germany.

While the economic stimulus package proposal has potentially handed the No lobby another weapon by casting doubt on the wisdom of the May vote, of itself it should not suffice to defeat the treaty. A far greater threat would be  the perception that the contest was won, with a consequent low turnout on the Yes side. This was what happened at Nice One.

Whatever the vote in Ireland, or the eventual  outcome in Greece, the Eurozone is lurching again, hopefully in a forward direction. The pieces may be on the table, but putting the jigsaw together will not be done overnight.